THE CATASTROPHE FORECAST OF THE ANNUAL SIDEMENT TRANSPORT BY DEBRIS FLOW IN JIANGJIA GULLY,YUNNAN PROVINCE, CHINA

On the basis of the observational data on the annual sediment transport by debris flow in recent 8 years, appling the catastrophe forecast method of Grey System Theory, this study has established the catastrophe model of the annual sediment transport by debris flow in Jiangjia Gully. It has forecasted the next potential catastrophic year in which the annual sediment transport will be over the catastrophic. threshold 2 million m³. Furthermore, it has introduced the "equal dimension-new information model", which makes the forecast be done continuously.