Application of Land-use Change Model in Guiding Regional Planning: A Case Study in Hun-Taizi River Watershed, Northeast China

This paper firstly investigated the land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) in the Hun-Taizi River watershed, Northeast China
from 1988 to 2004 based on remotely sensed images and geographic information systems (GIS) technology. Then, using the famous land
-use change model of Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S), this paper simulated the land use
changes under historical trend (HT), urban planning (UP) and ecological protection (EP) scenarios considering urban planning and
ecological protection over the next 20 years. The simulated results under UP scenario in 2020 were compared with the planning map to
assess the feasibility of using land-use change model to guide regional planning. Results show that forest land, dry farmland, paddy, and
shrub land were the main land-use categories. Paddy and dry farmland being converted to urban area and rural settlement characterized
the land-use change from 1988 to 2004. The main land-use categories changed over time. Landscape-pattern fragmentation will be
worse under HT and UP scenarios, but better in EP scenario. The comparing results of simulated map with planning map in 2020 show that
land-use change model is powerful tool to guide regional planning. Land-use scenarios can support regional planning and policy-making
through analyzing future consequences scientifically.