The Impact of Housing Affordability on Housing Sales Vacancy: Evidence from the Core Area of the Pearl River Delta, China

The housing vacancy problem is a global challenge to sustainable urban development, while research on housing sales vacancy from the perspective of housing affordability remains limited. This study focuses on the core area of the Pearl River Delta (PRD), China. Using housing supply and sales data from 2014 to 2023, it calculates the housing sales vacancy rate (HSVR) and employs spatial econometric models to explore the influencing factors of HSVR from a housing affordability perspective and reveal its spatial patterns and characteristics. The results show that 1) housing affordability is an important factor of HSVR, with housing price-to-income ratio (HPIR) and loan balance density (LBD) positively affecting HSVR, while per capita housing construction area (PHCA) has a negative effect. 2) New housing supply density (NHSD) and road density (RD) also influence HSVR, indicating housing market supply-demand dynamics, regional attractiveness, and the provision of basic infrastructure and services significantly influence residents’ housing purchase decisions. 3) HPIR, LBD, and PHCA exhibit significant spatial differences in housing affordability across the core area of the PRD, with Shenzhen and Guangzhou’s urban districts exhibiting relatively low housing affordability. 4) High HSVR areas include Shenzhen, Zhuhai, eastern Zhongshan, and Baiyun District of Guangzhou. This study provides empirical evidence to support the formulation of targeted housing policies, thereby contributing to sustainable urban development and the mitigation of housing vacancy challenges.