How New-type Urbanization Affects Resilience of Water-energy-food System in a Rapidly Urbanizing Region: Insights from the Yangtze River Delta, China

As the world’s population expands and urbanization accelerates, the interconnectedness of water, energy, and food (WEF) resources becomes increasingly critical. In the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) of China, rapid urban expansion has heightened WEF demand and environmental pressures, posing challenges to WEF system resilience (WEFSR). To clarify how new-type urbanization (NU) affects WEFSR across dimensions, spatial effects, and periods, this study constructed a multidimensional index system for NU (covering demographic, economic, social, spatial, ecological, and urban-rural integration dimensions) together with a WEFSR index capturing resistance, recoverability, and adaptability, based on panel data from 41 cities in the YRD from 2010 to 2022. We measured city-level WEFSR and NU, analyzed their spatial correlations, and applied a spatial Durbin model to quantify the direct and spillover effects of NU on WEFSR. Results showed that while NU and WEFSR increased, a negative spatial correlation between them highlighted an imbalance in the distribution of NU and WEF resources. NU exerted a negative local effect (−0.057) but a positive spillover effect (0.308) on WEFSR. Population, economic, and social urbanization played a decisive role in the impact of NU on WEFSR. Spatial urbanization negatively impacted the WEFSR of both local and neighboring areas. In contrast, eco-environmental urbanization and urban-rural integration enhanced WEFSR locally and in neighboring areas, with their positive effects being most pronounced in Zhejiang and Anhui. NU reduced local resilience in the WEF subsystems but benefited adjacent regions. These findings provide valuable insights for refining NU strategies and WEF resource management policies in highly urbanized areas.