Spatial-temporal Evolution and Nonlinear Driving Mechanisms of Urban Land Use Eco-efficiency: Evidence from the Yellow River Basin in China

Rapid urban expansion has exerted substantial adverse effects on ecosystems. Improving urban land use eco-efficiency (ULUEE) plays a vital role in achieving Sustainable Development Goal 11. While previous endeavors have predominantly concentrated on the linear correlations of the drivers, there has been a conspicuous absence of discourse on their nonlinear and heterogeneous impacts, which are more reflective of real-world complexities. In this study, the ULUEE across the Yellow River Basin was assessed from 2005 to 2020, its spatial-temporal dynamic evolution was revealed, and the nonlinear impact mechanisms were elucidated. The results indicate that the ULUEE increased from 0.4843 to 0.7822, and the spatial-temporal pattern exhibited strong stability and transfer inertia. Among the determinants, terrain exerted the most pronounced impact, whereas industrial structure had the least influence. Overall, terrain and economic development vitality presented W-shaped and U-shaped relationships, respectively. Urban land use structure had a detrimental effect, whereas altitude, industrial structure, economic output, social consumption, financial support, and science and technology development exerted positive influences. Notably, the influencing factors also displayed heterogeneous effects across the sub-basins. This study highlights the need for localized and targeted policy implementation to achieve efficient and sustainable urban land use.