Spatiotemporal Pattern and Driving Mechanism of Construction Land Expansion in Developing Countries: A Case Study of Central Asian

The uncontrolled expansion of construction land and abnormal urbanization in developing countries have raised significant concerns and drawn global attention. Although existing studies have primarily focused on land cover changes and their impacts, few have addressed changes in specific land types and their expansion mechanisms. Utilizing land use data from 1990 to 2020, this study employed hotspot analysis, the Dagum Gini coefficient, and the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model to investigate the spatiotemporal differentiation and underlying influencing mechanisms of construction land at the county level across five Central Asian countries. The results indicated that: 1) the proportion of construction land at the county level across the five Central Asian countries exhibited an upward trend with obvious spatial heterogeneity, presenting a pattern of highest expansion intensity in the southern region, followed by the northern region, and lowest in the central region. 2) Construction land showed consistent spatial clustering, forming stable southern hotspots and northern coldspots, significant disparities were observed in both intra- and inter-country Gini coefficients, revealing pronounced and persistent spatial inequality in construction land distribution across the study period. 3) Foreign investment constitutes a pivotal external driver, whereas internal factors, including population dynamics, economic conditions, and policy frameworks, function as predominant positive drivers exerting a more substantial influence, the impact of natural factors is negligible, with their constraining influence progressively diminishing. 4) Construction land expansion can be categorized into four distinct types: stable low-development, slow expansion, fast expansion, and high-expansion counties, which correspond to distinct constraints (ecological, climatic, administrative, and locational). These findings help advance sustainable development and the Belt and Road Initiative, and provide empirical and theoretical guidance for regulating construction land and promoting balanced regional development in Central Asia.