Spatiotemporal Pattern and Driving Mechanism of Construction Land Expansion in Developing Countries: A Case Study of Central Asian

The uncontrolled expansion of construction land and abnormal urbanization in developing countries have raised significant concerns and drawn global attention. Although existing studies have primarily focused on land cover changes and their impacts, few have addressed changes in specific land types and their expansion mechanisms. Utilizing land use data from 1990 to 2020, this study employed hotspot analysis, the Dagum Gini coefficient, and the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model to investigate the spatiotemporal differentiation and underlying influencing mechanisms of construction land at the county level across five Central Asian countries. The results indicated that: 1) the proportion of construction land at the county level across the five Central Asian countries exhibited an upward trend with obvious spatial heterogeneity, presenting a pattern of highest expansion intensity in the southern region, followed by the northern region, and lowest in the central region. 2) Construction land showed consistent spatial clustering, forming stable southern hotspots and northern coldspots, significant disparities were observed in both intra- and inter-country Gini coefficients, revealing pronounced and persistent spatial inequality in construction land distribution across the study period. 3) While foreign investment constitutes a pivotal external driver, internal factors (population dynamics, economic conditions, and policy frameworks) serve as the predominant positive drivers with a more substantial influence. By contrast, the impact of natural factors is negligible, and their constraining effect is progressively diminishing. 4) Construction land expansion can be categorized into four distinct types: stable low-development, slow expansion, fast expansion, and high-expansion, which correspond to distinct constraints—ecological, climatic, administrative, and locational, respectively. These research findings help advance land resource sustainable development and regional cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative, and provide empirical and theoretical guidance for regulating construction land and promoting balanced regional development in Central Asia.