Health Benefits and Scenario Projections of PM_2.5 and O₃ Pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, China

Fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and ozone (O₃) have emerged as major air pollutants in China, posing risks to human health. In this paper, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, a key region for air pollution prevention and control in China, was selected as the study area to analyze the characteristics of PM_2.5 and O₃ concentration changes and their health effects from 2014 to 2023, and to estimate the potential health benefits of realizing different emission reduction standards in 2030. The results have shown that: 1) The annual average PM_2.5 concentration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei showed a decreasing trend from 2014 to 2023, while the daily maximum 8-h sliding average of O₃ (O₃-8h concentration) showed a fluctuating increasing trend. 2) The number of premature deaths and economic losses attributed to PM_2.5 pollution showed a decreasing trend, while the changes in the number of premature deaths and economic losses attributed to O₃ pollution showed an opposite trend, in which the health risks and economic losses in Beijing and Tianjin were relatively prominent. 3) If the annual average concentrations of PM_2.5 and O₃ in 2030 reach the limits of the secondary standards of Ambient Air Quality Standards (GB 3095–2012), the number of premature deaths attributed to PM_2.5 and O₃ in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei will decrease by 23.08% and 20.45%, respectively, compared with that in 2023, and with the increase of per capita disposable income year by year, the health and economic losses will be reduced by 41.23 × 10⁸ CNY (95% CI: 33.71 × 10⁸–48.72 × 10⁸ CNY) and 98.89 × 10⁸ CNY (95% CI: 54.14 × 10⁸–142.67 × 10⁸ CNY), respectively; the increase in the number of premature deaths can be further avoided and significant economic benefits can be realized if the concentrations of PM_2.5 and O₃ are further reduced to higher standards. The study shows that the PM_2.5 control in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has been effective, but the O₃ pollution problem is emphasized, and the number of health deaths and economic losses caused by it are on the rise, and higher target air quality standards should be set in order to effectively improve the health of residents and bring significant economic benefits.