Spatiotemporal Patterns and Drivers of Vegetation Carbon Sequestration in Shandong Province, China

Understanding the dynamics of vegetation carbon sequestration (VCS) is essential for regional carbon neutrality strategies. This study revealed the spatiotemporal patterns of VCS and its relationship with anthropogenic carbon emissions (ACEs) in Shandong Province, China during 2000–2020, and identified the sensitivity factors affecting VCS. The results show that: 1) VCS increased consistently from 193.45 million t to 256.41 million t, with high values areas concentrated in the central, northeastern, and southeastern mountainous and hilly regions, while low values were found in water bodies and urban built-up areas. At the city level, Linyi, Yantai, Binzhou, and Jinan experienced the most significant rises—reaching up to 243 000 t/yr. At the county level, Pingdu, Qixia, and Yiyuan also showed substantial growth, each exceeding 30 400 t/yr. 2) Digital Elevation Molde (DEM) was identified as the dominant natural factor influencing VCS distribution, while land use optimization measures, especially afforestation and farmland conversion in sloped terrain, were the primary human drivers of VCS increase. 3) Urbanization and carbon neutrality were not mutually exclusive. While urban expansion locally reduced VCS, rural emigration enhanced carbon sinks in surrounding areas, partially offsetting urban losses. This compensatory mechanism supported VCS increases in nearly all cities and 90% of counties. Nevertheless, with ACEs continuing to rise and the offset ratio by VCS declining, achieving carbon neutrality requires regional strategies that integrate with accelerated energy conservation, emission reduction technologies, and energy transition. These findings provide a scientific basis for decomposing carbon neutrality targets across cities and counties in Shandong and a reference for developing localized land use policies in similar regions.