Influence of Economic Growth on Expansion of Urban Construction Land in the Yellow River Basin of China and Its Policy Implications

In the context of rapid urbanization and industrialization, achieving a coordinated relationship between urban construction land expansion (UCLE) and economic growth is essential for sustainable development, especially in developing countries. This study examined the spatiotemporal relationship between UCLE and economic growth in the Yellow River Basin (YRB), China from 2000 to 2020. An extended IPAT (Impact = Population × Affluence × Technology) decoupling framework and the geographical detector model were employed at a 5-km grid scale. Results show that urban construction land (UCL) expanded slowly before 2005, accelerated between 2005 and 2015, and declined thereafter. Since 2015, UCLE in most parts of the YRB has gradually decoupled from economic growth. The geographical detector analysis revealed that economic growth, along with its interactions with natural, locational, and socioeconomic factors, significantly influenced UCLE. Notably, location factors have gained importance since 2015, reducing the role of economic growth as the primary driver of UCLE in the YRB’s lower reaches. Nonetheless, economic growth continues to significantly influence the upper and middle reaches. These findings highlight the need for more precise and differentiated strategies for land utilization and economic growth, tailored to finer spatial scales, to better integrate human-land systems and promote high-quality regional development.