Measurement and Driving Mechanisms of Coordinated Development Between Innovation Capacity and Industrial Transformation in Northeast China Under the Background of Population Shrinkage

The exploration of the coupling and coordination between urban innovation capability (IC) and industrial transformation (IF) serves as a novel perspective for interpreting the increasingly severe phenomenon of population shrinkage during the industrialization process. This study investigated the evolutionary characteristics of IC and IF in shrinking and growing cities in Northeast China from 2010 to 2020. It uses entropy weighted model, coupling coordination degree, the Dagum Gini coefficient, and geographic detectors to analyze the coordinated development of IC and IF in the context of population shrinkage. The study analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns and driving mechanisms for their coordinated development. The results show that: 1) both urban IC and IF exhibited an overall positive trend during the study period. Shrinking cities depend more on IF to address the challenges of population shrinkage, while growing cities mainly rely on innovation-driven development. 2) The coupling gap between IC and IF in shrinking and growing cities has widened over time, with the coordination level of shrinking cities steadily decreasing. Cities with serious disorder are concentrated in northern Heilongjiang Province, while most cities in Jilin Province experience moderate disorder. Liaoning Province, however, shows generally good coupling coordination. 3) Human capital is the key factor driving coupling coordination in both types of cities. Shrinking cities rely on economic and financial development, with the ‘repair-type’ logic that emphasizes short-term economic growth and resource compensation. In contrast, the coupling of growing cities relies on basic support capabilities, with the ‘optimization-type’ logic focused on enhancing endogenous resilience and systemic coordination. Exploring the coordination between urban innovation capabilities and industrial transformation can provide a new perspective for research on population shrinkage, which holds certain theoretical and practical significance for implementing the new round of revitalization strategy in Northeast China.