Perturbation Mechanism and Response Measure of Weight Uncertainties on the Optimized Delineation of Production-living-ecological Space: A Case Study of Xuzhou, China

As the core of spatial planning in China, delineation of the production-living-ecological space (PLES) refers to dividing the overall land use into three functional spaces. Spatial units are optimally configured as the most suitable functional type, while beset by various uncertainties. Weight uncertainties, being affected by subjective preferences, are highly arbitrary and seriously affect PLES. Taking Xuzhou as the study area, this paper studies the perturbation mechanism and response measure of weight uncertainties on PLES. First, weight samples are obtained through quasi-random sampling to serve as sources of uncertainties for input into the optimized delineation of PLES. Next, the Monte Carlo simulation is applied to simulate the spatial probability distribution of PLES. The global sensitivity analysis method is then adopted to identify the main sources that cause uncertainties in the delineation of PLES. Subsequently, the flexible space (FS) of PLES at a certain level of significance is formulated by comparing the distribution probabilities of spatial units for different functional spaces, acting as a countermeasure for the perturbation. The results show that weight uncertainties bring disturbances to the PLES by affecting the multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) of PLES delineation. The PLES is affected by the weight uncertainties of the factors alone or through interactions with other weights. FS is the spatial response measure of PLES when uncertainties occurred at a certain level of significance. The study introduces the perspective of uncertainty for PLES, which contributes toward improving the scientificity and reliability of PLES.