County-level Agricultural Non-CO₂ Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Scenario Simulation in Hunan Province, China

In the context of the era of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, clarifying the emission patterns of non-CO₂ Greenhouse Gas (GHG) from agricultural sources is of practical significance to China’s implementation of greenhouse gas emission reduction policies. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) coefficient method was used to calculate non-CO₂ GHG emissions from agricultural sources in 122 counties in Hunan Province, China, from 2010 to 2020, and the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of emission intensity were analyzed. The Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STRIPAT) model forecasted the prospective evolution of non-CO₂ GHG emissions from agricultural sources at the county level under various scenarios from 2030 to 2050. The results demonstrated a general decline in non-CO₂ GHG emissions from agricultural sources within the study area, with 75.41% of counties exhibiting a reduction in emissions. Geographically, emissions were higher in the Dongting Lake area and central Hengyang. The emission intensity per unit of agricultural added value and the intensity per unit of agricultural land area showed an overall downward trend. Spatially, the emission intensity per unit of farmland area in a few counties (cities, districts) in southern Hunan was still relatively high. By forecasting the non-CO₂ GHG emissions from agricultural sources, the majority of counties (cities and districts) demonstrated a gradual decline in emissions, suggesting that agricultural production had the potential to reduce emissions in the future, while also facing certain pressure to reduce emissions. It is recommended that Hunan Province formulate agricultural carbon emission reduction policies that take regional development differences into account. This would provide a reference for future agricultural carbon emission reduction research in the whole country.