Health Assessment and Driving Force Analysis of Cropland Systems in Typical Black Soil Region of Northeast China from 2003 to 2023

The health of cropland systems is directly related to the degree of food security guarantee, and the ‘quantity-quality-ecology as a whole’ protection is of great significance for maintaining the health of cropland systems. Taking the typical black soil region in Northeast China (TBSN) as an example, this paper combined the concept of ‘quantity-quality-ecology as a whole’ protection with cropland systems health, constructed a health assessment model for cropland systems, and used Google Earth Engine to conduct a quantitative analysis of the temporal and spatial evolution of cropland systems health in TBSN during 2003–2023. By coupling the geographical detector and the Multi-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) model, the driving factors of cropland health changes were explored. The study finds that during the research period, the health status of cropland systems in TBSN showed a slight downward trend, and the distribution pattern of cropland systems health gradually shifted from ‘better in the east’ to ‘high in the northeast and low in the southwest’. Changes in average annual sunshine duration, relative humidity, and precipitation had a significant impact on the spatial differentiation of cropland systems health in the early stages, and were considered as dominant factors. Meanwhile, the influence of dual dominant factors in the natural environment on cropland systems health is increasing. Furthermore, the MGWR model performed better in revealing the complex relationships between natural and social factors and changes in cropland systems health, demonstrating the significant spatial heterogeneity of the impacts of natural environment and human activities on cropland systems health. The research can provide scientific guidance for the sustainable development of TBSN and formulate more precise and effective cropland protection policies.