Evolution and Driving Factors of Water Conservation Function in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China

The Three Gorges Project, the largest water conservation initiative globally, is located within the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA), a critical zone for water conservation and ecological protection. There is an urgent need to better understand and protect the evolving water conservation functions of the TGRA, alongside identifying the driving mechanisms within its ecological barrier region. This paper explores the spatial and temporal evolution of water conservation function in the TGRA from 1990 to 2020 and its future trends under different development scenarios from 2020 to 2030. Key driving factors influencing the water conservation function are identified, and a comprehensive development scenario is proposed. The findings indicate a general upward trend in the water conservation function of the TGRA, characterized by an initial increase, a subsequent decline, and a final recovery. Moreover, land use changes are found to be the primary factor driving these variations, followed by climatic factors such as precipitation. Under various development scenarios, the prioritization of water conservation outcomes is ranked as follows: ecological protection > cropland protection > natural development > urban development. The results of this study offer valuable insights for balancing economic development with ecological preservation.