Impact of Energy Transition on CO₂ Emissions in China’s Cities

Reducing global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions is essential for meeting climate change mitigation goals, especially in urban areas. In this regard, this study used CO₂ emissions and energy transition data from 296 China’s cities in 2020 and the extended Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model to explore the relationship between energy transition and CO₂ emissions at the city-scale. The findings indicate a spatial distribution of energy transition magnitude that is high in the west and low in the east, which does not align with economic status and total CO₂ emissions, posing significant challenges for Chinaʼs energy transition and urban CO₂ reduction. The STIRPAT model reveals that urban CO₂ emissions are significantly driven by increases in population size, levels of economic development, and the expansion of transportation infrastructure. Conversely, investments in science and education, the expansion of the tertiary sector, and the disruptive effects of the COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) pandemic are associated with notable reductions in CO₂ emissions. Specifically, the analysis estimates that a 1.00% increase in the energy transition degree is associated witha 0.90% decrease in urban CO₂ emissions. However, regional assessments underscore considerable spatial heterogeneity in the energy transition effect, with CO₂ reduction benefits being less pronounced in central and western cities. These findings suggest that future clean energy initiatives should be strategically concentrated in eastern China, where the demand and potential for CO₂ mitigation are greater. This study deepens the understanding of the complex relationship between energy transition and urban CO₂ emissions, offering valuable insights to inform targeted policy interventions for carbon reduction at the city level.