Multi-scenario Simulation of the Impact of Land Use Change on the Ecosystem Service Value in the Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou Metropolitan Area, China

As the most economically developed metropolitan area in China’s Yangtze River Delta, the rapid changing land use patterns of Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou (Su-Xi-Chang) metropolitan area have profound impacts on the ecosystem service value (ESV). Based on the patterns of land use change and the ESV change in Su-Xi-Chang metropolitan area from 2000 to 2020, we set up four scenarios: natural development scenario, urban development scenario, arable land protection scenario and ecological protection scenario, and simulated the impact of land use changes on the ESV in these scenarios. The results showed that: 1) the area of built-up land in the Su-Xi-Chang metropolitan area increased significantly from 2000 to 2020, and the area of other types of land decreased. Arable land underwent the highest transfer-out area, and was primarily converted into built-up land. The total ESV of Su-Xi-Chang metropolitan area increased initially then declined from 2000–2020, and the value of almost all individual ecosystem services decreased. 2) Population density, GDP per area, night lighting intensity, and road network density can negatively impact the ESV. 3) The total ESV loss under the natural development and urban development scenarios was high, and the expansion of the built-up land and the drastic shrinkage of the arable land contributed to the ESV decline under both scenarios. The total ESV under arable land protection and ecological protection scenarios increases, and therefore these scenarios are suitable for future land use optimization in Su-Xi-Chang. This study could provide a certain reference for land use planning and allocation, and offer guidance for the rational allocation of land resources.