2014年 第0卷 第5期
2014, 0(5): 499-510.
doi: 10.1007/s11769-014-0710-5
摘要:
Global warming is recently an urgent issue worldwide. The increase of carbon emissions induced by human economic activities has become a major driving force behind global climate change. Thus, as a matter of social responsibility, reasonable carbon constraints should be implemented to ensure environmental security and sustainable development for every country. Based on a summary of studies that examined the relationship between carbon emissions and regional development, this paper shows that human activity-led carbon emission is caused by the combination of several influencing factors, including population size, income level, and technical progress. Thus, a quantitative model derived from IPAT-ImPACT-Kaya series and STIRPAT models was established. Empirical analysis using multivariate nonlinear regression demonstrated that the origins of growing global carbon emission included the increasing influencing elasticity of the population size and the declining negative effect of technical progress. Meanwhile, in context of classification of country groups at different income levels, according to the comparison of fluctuating patterns of the influencing elasticity, technical progress was found as the main factor influencing carbon emission levels in high-income countries, and population size might be the controlling factor in middle-income countries. However, for low-income countries, the nonlinear relationship between carbon emission and its influencing factors was not significant, whereas population growth was identified as an important potential driving force in future carbon emissions. This study can therefore provide a reference for the formulation of policies on carbon constraints, especially to develop more efficient carbon mitigating policies for countries at different income levels.
Global warming is recently an urgent issue worldwide. The increase of carbon emissions induced by human economic activities has become a major driving force behind global climate change. Thus, as a matter of social responsibility, reasonable carbon constraints should be implemented to ensure environmental security and sustainable development for every country. Based on a summary of studies that examined the relationship between carbon emissions and regional development, this paper shows that human activity-led carbon emission is caused by the combination of several influencing factors, including population size, income level, and technical progress. Thus, a quantitative model derived from IPAT-ImPACT-Kaya series and STIRPAT models was established. Empirical analysis using multivariate nonlinear regression demonstrated that the origins of growing global carbon emission included the increasing influencing elasticity of the population size and the declining negative effect of technical progress. Meanwhile, in context of classification of country groups at different income levels, according to the comparison of fluctuating patterns of the influencing elasticity, technical progress was found as the main factor influencing carbon emission levels in high-income countries, and population size might be the controlling factor in middle-income countries. However, for low-income countries, the nonlinear relationship between carbon emission and its influencing factors was not significant, whereas population growth was identified as an important potential driving force in future carbon emissions. This study can therefore provide a reference for the formulation of policies on carbon constraints, especially to develop more efficient carbon mitigating policies for countries at different income levels.
2014, 0(5): 511-524.
doi: 10.1007/s11769-013-0633-6
摘要:
While urbanization has accelerated, the rural population in China has started decreasing in recent years. However, the expansion of rural settlement has not been sufficiently curbed. The questions of why this has happened and who has driven the land-use change (LUC) of rural settlement in China have aroused great interests among researchers. In this paper, it is suggested that population is not always a positive driving force for the LUC of rural settlement in China. Furthermore, socio-economic driving forces other than urbanization, population and industrialization are analyzed. On a national scale, the major driving forces are the per-capita rural housing area and the cultivated land area. On a regional scale, the main driving forces in the eastern China are the house-building capacity of rural households and the per-capita rural housing area; while in the central China, the main driving forces are rural housing investment, the proportion of primary industry employees in the rural working population, and the cultivated land area. For the western China, the main driving forces are rural register population and cultivated land area.
While urbanization has accelerated, the rural population in China has started decreasing in recent years. However, the expansion of rural settlement has not been sufficiently curbed. The questions of why this has happened and who has driven the land-use change (LUC) of rural settlement in China have aroused great interests among researchers. In this paper, it is suggested that population is not always a positive driving force for the LUC of rural settlement in China. Furthermore, socio-economic driving forces other than urbanization, population and industrialization are analyzed. On a national scale, the major driving forces are the per-capita rural housing area and the cultivated land area. On a regional scale, the main driving forces in the eastern China are the house-building capacity of rural households and the per-capita rural housing area; while in the central China, the main driving forces are rural housing investment, the proportion of primary industry employees in the rural working population, and the cultivated land area. For the western China, the main driving forces are rural register population and cultivated land area.
2014, 0(5): 525-539.
doi: 10.1007/s11769-014-0720-3
摘要:
To manage water resources effectively, a multiscale assessment of the vulnerability of water resources on the basis of political boundaries and watersheds is necessary. This study addressed issues on the vulnerability of water resources and provided a multiscale comparison of spatial heterogeneity under a climate change background. Using improved quantitative evaluation methods of vulnerability, the Theil index and the Shannon-Weaver index, we evaluated the vulnerability of water resources and its spatial heterogeneity in the Haihe River Basin in four scales, namely, second-class water resource regions (Class ⅡWRRs), third-class water resource regions (Class Ⅲ WRRs), Province-Class ⅡWRRs, and Province-Class Ⅲ WRRs. Results show that vulnerability enhances from the north to south in the different scales, and shows obvious spatial heterogeneity instead of moving toward convergence in multiscale assessment results. Among the Class Ⅱ WRRs, the Tuhai-Majia River is the most vulnerable area, and the vulnerability of the Luanhe River is lower than that of the north of the Haihe River Basin, which in turn is lower than that of the south of the Haihe River Basin. In the scales of Class Ⅲ WRRs and Province-Class Ⅲ WRRs, the vulnerability shows obvious spatial heterogeneity and diversity measured by the Theil index and the Shannon-Weaver index. Multiscale vulnerability assessment results based on political boundaries and the watersheds of the Haihe River Basin innovatively provided in this paper are important and useful to characterize the real spatial pattern of the vulnerability of water resources and improve water resource management.
To manage water resources effectively, a multiscale assessment of the vulnerability of water resources on the basis of political boundaries and watersheds is necessary. This study addressed issues on the vulnerability of water resources and provided a multiscale comparison of spatial heterogeneity under a climate change background. Using improved quantitative evaluation methods of vulnerability, the Theil index and the Shannon-Weaver index, we evaluated the vulnerability of water resources and its spatial heterogeneity in the Haihe River Basin in four scales, namely, second-class water resource regions (Class ⅡWRRs), third-class water resource regions (Class Ⅲ WRRs), Province-Class ⅡWRRs, and Province-Class Ⅲ WRRs. Results show that vulnerability enhances from the north to south in the different scales, and shows obvious spatial heterogeneity instead of moving toward convergence in multiscale assessment results. Among the Class Ⅱ WRRs, the Tuhai-Majia River is the most vulnerable area, and the vulnerability of the Luanhe River is lower than that of the north of the Haihe River Basin, which in turn is lower than that of the south of the Haihe River Basin. In the scales of Class Ⅲ WRRs and Province-Class Ⅲ WRRs, the vulnerability shows obvious spatial heterogeneity and diversity measured by the Theil index and the Shannon-Weaver index. Multiscale vulnerability assessment results based on political boundaries and the watersheds of the Haihe River Basin innovatively provided in this paper are important and useful to characterize the real spatial pattern of the vulnerability of water resources and improve water resource management.
2014, 0(5): 540-550.
doi: 10.1007/s11769-014-0661-x
摘要:
Non-point source (NPS) pollution has become a major source of water pollution. A combination of models would provide the necessary direction and approaches designed to control NPS pollution through land use planning. In this study, NPS pollution load was simulated in urban planning, historic trends and ecological protection land use scenarios based on the Conversion of Land Use and its Effect at Small regional extent (CLUE-S) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models applied to Hunhe-Taizi River Watershed, Liaoning Province, China. Total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) were chosen as NPS pollution indices. The results of models validation showed that CLUE-S and SWAT models were suitable in the study area. NPS pollution mainly came from dry farmland, paddy, rural and urban areas. The spatial distribution of TN and TP exhibited the same trend in 57 sub-catchments. The TN and TP had the highest NPS pollution load in the western and central plains, which concentrated the urban area and farm land. The NPS pollution load would increase in the urban planning and historic trends scenarios, and would be even higher in the urban planning scenario. However, the NPS pollution load decreased in the ecological protection scenario. The differences observed in the three scenarios indicated that land use had a degree of impact on NPS pollution, which showed that scientific and ecologically sound construction could effectively reduce the NPS pollution load in a watershed. This study provides a scientific method for conducting NPS pollution research at the watershed scale, a scientific basis for non-point source pollution control, and a reference for related policy making.
Non-point source (NPS) pollution has become a major source of water pollution. A combination of models would provide the necessary direction and approaches designed to control NPS pollution through land use planning. In this study, NPS pollution load was simulated in urban planning, historic trends and ecological protection land use scenarios based on the Conversion of Land Use and its Effect at Small regional extent (CLUE-S) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models applied to Hunhe-Taizi River Watershed, Liaoning Province, China. Total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) were chosen as NPS pollution indices. The results of models validation showed that CLUE-S and SWAT models were suitable in the study area. NPS pollution mainly came from dry farmland, paddy, rural and urban areas. The spatial distribution of TN and TP exhibited the same trend in 57 sub-catchments. The TN and TP had the highest NPS pollution load in the western and central plains, which concentrated the urban area and farm land. The NPS pollution load would increase in the urban planning and historic trends scenarios, and would be even higher in the urban planning scenario. However, the NPS pollution load decreased in the ecological protection scenario. The differences observed in the three scenarios indicated that land use had a degree of impact on NPS pollution, which showed that scientific and ecologically sound construction could effectively reduce the NPS pollution load in a watershed. This study provides a scientific method for conducting NPS pollution research at the watershed scale, a scientific basis for non-point source pollution control, and a reference for related policy making.
2014, 0(5): 551-561.
doi: 10.1007/s11769-014-0709-y
摘要:
The urban population and urbanized land in China have both increased markedly since the 1980s. Urban and suburban developments have grown at unprecedented rates with unknown consequences for ecosystem functions. In particular, the effect of rapid urbanization on the storage of soil carbon has not been studied extensively. In this study, we compared the soil carbon stocks of different land use types in Beijing Municipality. We collected 490 top-soil samples (top 20 cm) from urban and suburban sites within the Sixth Ring Road of Beijing, which cover approximately 2400 km2, and the densities of soil organic carbon (SOC), soil inorganic carbon (SIC), and total carbon (TC) were analyzed to determine the spatial distribution of urban and suburban soil carbon characteristics across seven land use types. The results revealed significant differences in soil carbon densities among land use types. Additionally, urban soil had significantly higher SOC and SIC densities than suburban soil did, and suburban shelterbelts and productive plantations had lower SIC densities than the other land use types. The comparison of coefficients of variance (CVs) showed that carbon content of urban topsoil had a lower variability than that of suburban topsoil. Further findings revealed that soil carbon storage increased with built-up age. Urban soil built up for more than 20 years had higher densities of SOC, SIC and TC than both urban soil with less than 10 years and suburban soil. Correlation analyses indicated the existence of a significantly negative correlation between the SOC, SIC, and TC densities of urban soil and the distance to the urban core, and the distance variable alone explained 23.3% of the variation of SIC density and 13.8% of the variation of TC density. These results indicate that SOC and SIC accumulate in the urban topsoil under green space as a result of the conversion of agricultural land to urban land due to the urbanization in Beijing.
The urban population and urbanized land in China have both increased markedly since the 1980s. Urban and suburban developments have grown at unprecedented rates with unknown consequences for ecosystem functions. In particular, the effect of rapid urbanization on the storage of soil carbon has not been studied extensively. In this study, we compared the soil carbon stocks of different land use types in Beijing Municipality. We collected 490 top-soil samples (top 20 cm) from urban and suburban sites within the Sixth Ring Road of Beijing, which cover approximately 2400 km2, and the densities of soil organic carbon (SOC), soil inorganic carbon (SIC), and total carbon (TC) were analyzed to determine the spatial distribution of urban and suburban soil carbon characteristics across seven land use types. The results revealed significant differences in soil carbon densities among land use types. Additionally, urban soil had significantly higher SOC and SIC densities than suburban soil did, and suburban shelterbelts and productive plantations had lower SIC densities than the other land use types. The comparison of coefficients of variance (CVs) showed that carbon content of urban topsoil had a lower variability than that of suburban topsoil. Further findings revealed that soil carbon storage increased with built-up age. Urban soil built up for more than 20 years had higher densities of SOC, SIC and TC than both urban soil with less than 10 years and suburban soil. Correlation analyses indicated the existence of a significantly negative correlation between the SOC, SIC, and TC densities of urban soil and the distance to the urban core, and the distance variable alone explained 23.3% of the variation of SIC density and 13.8% of the variation of TC density. These results indicate that SOC and SIC accumulate in the urban topsoil under green space as a result of the conversion of agricultural land to urban land due to the urbanization in Beijing.
2014, 0(5): 562-574.
doi: 10.1007/s11769-014-0692-3
摘要:
The nitrogen (N) input and Spartina alterniflora invasion in the tidal marsh of the southeast of China are increasingly serious. To evaluate CH4 emissions in the tidal marsh as affected by the N inputs and S. alterniflora invasion, we measured CH4 emissions from plots with vegetated S. alterniflora and native Cyperus malaccensis, and fertilized with exogenous N at the rate of 0 (N0), 21 (N1) and 42 (N2) g N/(m2·yr), respectively, in the Shanyutan marsh in the Minjiang River estuary, the southeast of China. The average CH4 fluxes during the experiment in the C. malaccensis and S. alterniflora plots without N addition were 3.67 mg CH4/(m2·h) and 7.79 mg CH4/(m2·h), respectively, suggesting that the invasion of S. alterniflora into the Minjiang River estuary stimulated CH4 emission. Exogenous N had positive effects on CH4 fluxes both in native and in invaded tidal marsh. The mean CH4 fluxes of N1 and N2 treatments increased by 31.05% and 123.50% in the C. malaccensis marsh, and 63.88% and 7.55% in the S. alterniflora marsh, respectively, compared to that of N0 treatment. The CH4 fluxes in the two marshes were positively correlated with temperature and pH, and negatively correlated with electrical conductivity and redox potential (Eh) at different N addition treatments. While the relationships between CH4 fluxes and environmental variables (especially soil temperature, pH and Eh at different depths) tended to decrease with N additions. Significant temporal variability in CH4 fluxes were observed as the N was gradually added to the native and invaded marshes. In order to better assess the global climatic role of tidal marshes as affected by N addition, much more attention should be paid to the short-term temporal variability in CH4 emission.
The nitrogen (N) input and Spartina alterniflora invasion in the tidal marsh of the southeast of China are increasingly serious. To evaluate CH4 emissions in the tidal marsh as affected by the N inputs and S. alterniflora invasion, we measured CH4 emissions from plots with vegetated S. alterniflora and native Cyperus malaccensis, and fertilized with exogenous N at the rate of 0 (N0), 21 (N1) and 42 (N2) g N/(m2·yr), respectively, in the Shanyutan marsh in the Minjiang River estuary, the southeast of China. The average CH4 fluxes during the experiment in the C. malaccensis and S. alterniflora plots without N addition were 3.67 mg CH4/(m2·h) and 7.79 mg CH4/(m2·h), respectively, suggesting that the invasion of S. alterniflora into the Minjiang River estuary stimulated CH4 emission. Exogenous N had positive effects on CH4 fluxes both in native and in invaded tidal marsh. The mean CH4 fluxes of N1 and N2 treatments increased by 31.05% and 123.50% in the C. malaccensis marsh, and 63.88% and 7.55% in the S. alterniflora marsh, respectively, compared to that of N0 treatment. The CH4 fluxes in the two marshes were positively correlated with temperature and pH, and negatively correlated with electrical conductivity and redox potential (Eh) at different N addition treatments. While the relationships between CH4 fluxes and environmental variables (especially soil temperature, pH and Eh at different depths) tended to decrease with N additions. Significant temporal variability in CH4 fluxes were observed as the N was gradually added to the native and invaded marshes. In order to better assess the global climatic role of tidal marshes as affected by N addition, much more attention should be paid to the short-term temporal variability in CH4 emission.
2014, 0(5): 575-586.
doi: 10.1007/s11769-014-0676-3
摘要:
To simulate the soil moisture variation in cropland, a two-parameter exponential recession model was derived to depict the recession process of soil moisture in the root zone. The model is based on the assumption that the recession rate of soil water is proportional to the potential evapotranspiration rate and the difference of soil water content and steady soil water content. Two parameters in this model are soil texture-dependent recession constant and steady soil water content. The model was calibrated and validated with measured soil water data at two experiment sites in North China with different soil textures and cropping systems. Coefficients of determination between measured and model simulated soil water content were all greater than 0.7, indicating that both models gave satisfactory simulation results. Results showed that values of two parameters mentioned above are both larger for finer soil than those for coarser soil. At the same potential evapotranspiration rate and soil water content, the recession rate of finer soil is usually lower than that of coarser soil. The proposed model can be used in irrigation management to predict approximate date for irrigation, as well as be embedded into watershed hydrological models to estimate the antecedent precipitation index.
To simulate the soil moisture variation in cropland, a two-parameter exponential recession model was derived to depict the recession process of soil moisture in the root zone. The model is based on the assumption that the recession rate of soil water is proportional to the potential evapotranspiration rate and the difference of soil water content and steady soil water content. Two parameters in this model are soil texture-dependent recession constant and steady soil water content. The model was calibrated and validated with measured soil water data at two experiment sites in North China with different soil textures and cropping systems. Coefficients of determination between measured and model simulated soil water content were all greater than 0.7, indicating that both models gave satisfactory simulation results. Results showed that values of two parameters mentioned above are both larger for finer soil than those for coarser soil. At the same potential evapotranspiration rate and soil water content, the recession rate of finer soil is usually lower than that of coarser soil. The proposed model can be used in irrigation management to predict approximate date for irrigation, as well as be embedded into watershed hydrological models to estimate the antecedent precipitation index.
2014, 0(5): 587-598.
doi: 10.1007/s11769-014-0674-5
摘要:
The anthropogenic managements of forest have created a network of roads resulting in the loss and alternation of habitat. To better understand road's impact on animal habitats, we assessed the habitat pattern of sables (Martes zibellina), one of rodents within national first-class protected species, when roads are considered in Huzhong area in Da Hinggan Mountains, northeastern China. Employing published literatures about behavior ecology, aerial photographs and forest stand maps, we classified the study area into three habitat types including best-suitable, suitable and unsuitable habitats based on sable habitat requirements at the landscape scale including four variables derived from forest source map with attribute database. Results indicated the loss and significant fragmentation of best-suitable habitat and home range habitat when roads, especially 150 m avoidance distance of roads, were considered. The roads reduced and fragmented highly suitable habitats more significantly during earlier development period than the later development period. Additionally, the suitable area percentage increased with increasing distance to roads. This study helped to identify the suitable area for sables and location of sable population . Also, this study suggested the passage construction and road management involving road closure and removal will reduce the fragmentation functionally and benefit the sable population.
The anthropogenic managements of forest have created a network of roads resulting in the loss and alternation of habitat. To better understand road's impact on animal habitats, we assessed the habitat pattern of sables (Martes zibellina), one of rodents within national first-class protected species, when roads are considered in Huzhong area in Da Hinggan Mountains, northeastern China. Employing published literatures about behavior ecology, aerial photographs and forest stand maps, we classified the study area into three habitat types including best-suitable, suitable and unsuitable habitats based on sable habitat requirements at the landscape scale including four variables derived from forest source map with attribute database. Results indicated the loss and significant fragmentation of best-suitable habitat and home range habitat when roads, especially 150 m avoidance distance of roads, were considered. The roads reduced and fragmented highly suitable habitats more significantly during earlier development period than the later development period. Additionally, the suitable area percentage increased with increasing distance to roads. This study helped to identify the suitable area for sables and location of sable population . Also, this study suggested the passage construction and road management involving road closure and removal will reduce the fragmentation functionally and benefit the sable population.
2014, 0(5): 599-606.
doi: 10.1007/s11769-014-0675-4
摘要:
It has been observed that low temperature, rainfall, snowfall, frost have never occurred over the past 50 years in the southern China, and weather in this area is very complex, so the monitoring equipments are few. Optical and thermal infrared remote sensing is influenced much by clouds, so the passive microwave Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) data are the best choice to monitor and analyze the development of disaster. In order to improve estimation accuracy, the dynamic learning neural network was used to retrieve snow depth. The difference of brightness temperatures of TB18.7V and TB36.5V, TB18.7H and TB36.5H, TB23.8V and TB89V, TB23.8H and TB89H are made as four main input nodes and the snow depth is the only one output node of neural network. The mean and the standard deviation of retrieval errors are about 4.8 cm and 6.7 cm relative to the test data of ground measurements. The application analysis indicated that the neural network can be utilized to monitor the change of snow intensity distribution through passive microwave data in the complex weather of the southern China.
It has been observed that low temperature, rainfall, snowfall, frost have never occurred over the past 50 years in the southern China, and weather in this area is very complex, so the monitoring equipments are few. Optical and thermal infrared remote sensing is influenced much by clouds, so the passive microwave Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) data are the best choice to monitor and analyze the development of disaster. In order to improve estimation accuracy, the dynamic learning neural network was used to retrieve snow depth. The difference of brightness temperatures of TB18.7V and TB36.5V, TB18.7H and TB36.5H, TB23.8V and TB89V, TB23.8H and TB89H are made as four main input nodes and the snow depth is the only one output node of neural network. The mean and the standard deviation of retrieval errors are about 4.8 cm and 6.7 cm relative to the test data of ground measurements. The application analysis indicated that the neural network can be utilized to monitor the change of snow intensity distribution through passive microwave data in the complex weather of the southern China.
2014, 0(5): 607-619.
doi: 10.1007/s11769-014-0711-4
摘要:
By focusing on Guangzhou, this paper examines how different concepts of city in terms of urban-rural relationships are shaped in transforming China since 1949, and explores how they influence the way in which urban planning are practiced. In the pre-reform era, the city was defined as a productive space under the system of urban-rural segregation established for securing rapid industrialization. Urban planning was thus only concerned with the development of urban areas. In the 1980s and 1990s after the reform, institutional change and economic transformation mobilized the urban-rural linkages. The development of suburban areas was then considered by urban planning, but this consideration was a passive response to urban problems such as population explosion and water resources protection. Since the new millennium, the agenda for sustainable development and problems of uneven urban-rural development have called for the development of urban-rural integration. In this context, the city is conceptualized as a complex of mountain, city, river, farmland and sea, reconstructing the ideology of urban-rural division in defining urban development. Urban planning has therefore sought in an active way to develop a sustainable city embracing rural and natural elements, and to balance economic growth and environmental protection. It is argued that developing the concept of city as a complex of urban and rural elements contributes to the urban planning for sustainable urban development, while this conceptualization relies on the recognition of the integrated urban-rural relationship.
By focusing on Guangzhou, this paper examines how different concepts of city in terms of urban-rural relationships are shaped in transforming China since 1949, and explores how they influence the way in which urban planning are practiced. In the pre-reform era, the city was defined as a productive space under the system of urban-rural segregation established for securing rapid industrialization. Urban planning was thus only concerned with the development of urban areas. In the 1980s and 1990s after the reform, institutional change and economic transformation mobilized the urban-rural linkages. The development of suburban areas was then considered by urban planning, but this consideration was a passive response to urban problems such as population explosion and water resources protection. Since the new millennium, the agenda for sustainable development and problems of uneven urban-rural development have called for the development of urban-rural integration. In this context, the city is conceptualized as a complex of mountain, city, river, farmland and sea, reconstructing the ideology of urban-rural division in defining urban development. Urban planning has therefore sought in an active way to develop a sustainable city embracing rural and natural elements, and to balance economic growth and environmental protection. It is argued that developing the concept of city as a complex of urban and rural elements contributes to the urban planning for sustainable urban development, while this conceptualization relies on the recognition of the integrated urban-rural relationship.
2014, 0(5): 620-630.
doi: 10.1007/s11769-014-0685-2
摘要:
In order to evaluate whether or not the county units' economy in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan (Chang-Zhu-Tan) Urban Agglomeration was growing as expected, this study analyzed the spatial economy pattern at county-level by using the Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) method. In this process, the global Moran's I and local Getis-Ord Gi* indexes were employed to analyze indicators including per capita GDP and three industrials (i.e. primary, secondary and tertiary industry) from 2000 to 2010. The results show that: 1) the county units' economy in the Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration has exhibited a strong spatial autocorrelation and an accelerated integration trend since 2008 (Moran's I increased from 0.26 to 0.56); 2) there is a significant difference in economy development between the northern and southern county units in the Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration: the hotspot zone with high economic level was formed among the northern county units whereas the coldspot zone with low economic level was located in the southern areas. This difference was caused primarily by the increasingly prominent economic radiation effect of Changsha ‘upheaval’; 3) town density, secondary industry, and the integration policy are the major contributors driving the evolution of the spatial economy pattern in the Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration.
In order to evaluate whether or not the county units' economy in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan (Chang-Zhu-Tan) Urban Agglomeration was growing as expected, this study analyzed the spatial economy pattern at county-level by using the Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) method. In this process, the global Moran's I and local Getis-Ord Gi* indexes were employed to analyze indicators including per capita GDP and three industrials (i.e. primary, secondary and tertiary industry) from 2000 to 2010. The results show that: 1) the county units' economy in the Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration has exhibited a strong spatial autocorrelation and an accelerated integration trend since 2008 (Moran's I increased from 0.26 to 0.56); 2) there is a significant difference in economy development between the northern and southern county units in the Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration: the hotspot zone with high economic level was formed among the northern county units whereas the coldspot zone with low economic level was located in the southern areas. This difference was caused primarily by the increasingly prominent economic radiation effect of Changsha ‘upheaval’; 3) town density, secondary industry, and the integration policy are the major contributors driving the evolution of the spatial economy pattern in the Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration.
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