Abstract: Understanding ecosystem service value (ESV) dynamics in response to land-use change (LUC) is critical for urban ecological security and sustainable development, especially in rapidly urbanizing regions. However, the spatiotemporal dynamics of ESV under divergent development scenarios remain insufficiently quantified. To bridge this research limitation, this study develops a coupled simulation framework integrating System Dynamics (SD) and Mixed-cell Cellular Automata (MCCA) models and applies it to Zhengzhou City, a representative rapidly urbanizing area in China. Incorporating the equivalent factor method and sensitivity index (SI) analysis, we simulate LUC and ESV dynamics under three scenarios (natural increase, NIS; economic development, EDS; ecological protection, EPS) for 2015−2030, based on historical trends from 2000−2015. The results show that rapid urbanization in Zhengzhou City from 2000 to 2015 induced substantial arable land loss and construction land expansion. The dominant transition involved 730.29 km² of arable land converted to construction land, displaying notable spatial heterogeneity: construction land expanded outward from the urban core along transport corridors, and arable land losses were concentrated in the eastern plains and peri-urban zones. By 2030, projected total ESV reaches 3.995, 3.740, and 4.928 billion yuan (RMB) under NIS, EDS, and EPS, respectively, with EPS exceeding the others by 23.4% and 31.8%. The SI values are negative under NIS (−1.16%) and EDS (−1.32%), but positive under EPS (0.034%), indicating that ecological protection policies can sustain or enhance regional ESV. This study provides a systematic methodological framework that links between land-use simulation and ecological valuation, offering practical guidance for balancing urban expansion and ecosystem conservation in similar fast-growing regions.