Abstract: Understanding ecosystem service value (ESV) dynamics in response to land-use change (LUC) is critical for urban ecological security and sustainable development, especially in rapidly urbanizing regions. However, the spatiotemporal dynamics of ESV under divergent development scenarios remain insufficiently quantified. To address this gap, this study develops a coupled simulation framework integrating System Dynamics (SD) and Mixed-cell Cellular Automata (MCCA) models and applies it to Zhengzhou City, a representative rapidly urbanizing area in China. Incorporating the equivalent factor method and sensitivity index (SI) analysis, we simulate LUC and ESV dynamics under three scenarios (natural increase, NIS; economic development, EDS; ecological protection, EPS) for 2015−2030, based on historical trends from 2000−2015. Our findings reveal that historical LUC was dominated by cropland conversion to built-up areas, particularly in urban peripheries. By 2030, projected total ESV reaches 3.995, 3.740, and 4.928 billion yuan (RMB) under NIS, EDS, and EPS, respectively, with EPS exceeding the others by 23.4% and 31.8%. The SI values are negative under NIS (−1.16%) and EDS (−1.32%), but positive under EPS (0.034%), indicating that ecological protection policies can sustain or enhance regional ESV. This study provides a systematic methodological framework that links between land-use simulation and ecological valuation, offering practical guidance for balancing urban expansion and ecosystem conservation in similar fast-growing regions.