Optimizing Habitat Management Strategies for Wintering Geese Using a Cross-scale Species Distribution Modelling Framework in Dongting Lake, China

  • Abstract: In the global context of wetland degradation and declining waterbird diversity, there is an urgent need for targeted wetland habitat management to improve habitat suitability for waterbirds. Wetland habitats in river-connected lakes face increased management uncertainty owing to drastic hydrological changes, yet many management efforts still lack sufficient quantitative guidance. In this study, we adopted a cross-scale species distribution modelling framework to analyse the response of geese occurrence probability (GOP) to habitat variables during the 2021/2022 wintering period in Dongting Lake, the second largest freshwater lake in China and a Ramsar Site. We then proposed dynamic habitat management and habitat composition enhancement strategies based on key habitat-quality variables and habitat-composition variables quantified within 200 m and 1 km neighbourhoods around each pixel centre. Results showed that habitat-quality variables generally had a stronger influence on GOP than habitat-composition variables. Based on the final cross-scale model, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was identified as the most influential predictor of GOP, with an optimal range of 0.375–0.428. Hydrological factors had a significant relationship with the elevation of areas within the optimal NDVI range, and thus could help identify priority zones for dynamic habitat management under varying hydrological regimes. The optimal proportions of grass, mud flat, and water were 84.8%, 9.0%, and 6.2%, respectively, at the 200 m neighbourhood scale, and 56.6%, 23.7%, and 19.7%, respectively, at the 1 km neighbourhood scale. Thus, we propose a mosaic habitat structure, with small mud-flat and water patches embedded within larger meadow areas, as a strategy for habitat enhancement and creation. These findings provide quantitative guidance on where dynamic habitat management should be prioritized under varying hydrological regimes and how habitat composition can be enhanced through a mosaic structure of meadows, mud flats, and water patches, thereby supporting effective conservation and management strategies for wetland habitats.

     

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