Abstract:
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) faces significant resilience challenges which stanched from climate change, economic vulnerabilities, and inadequate social safety nets. These predicaments have not only hindered the region development and stability but also undermined its capacity to resist, adapt to, and recover from both short- and long-term crises. Meanwhile, limited research has focused on its inherent resilience and adaptability strengths in confronting these adversities. Based on theoretical and empirical analysis, this study investigated the dynamic changes in regional resilience in SSA prefectures in response to the 2008 financial crisis and Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic through the Fisher Information (FI) method and multi-scale geographical weighted regression model (MGWR). The MGWR model was further complimented with the ordinary least squares (OLS) model for a dynamic comparison. We combined data from various sources and constructed a more dynamic resistance and recoverability indexes and at the same time simulated the adaptability and resilience trend of the region with the help of Python and ArcGIS Software. The findings show that: 1) majority of the major regions in SSA present different types of resilience patterns such as ‘Stable’, ‘Smooth W’, and ‘Sharp W’. 2) Before the crisis, a larger proportion of SSA regions were unstable and fragile, which resulted in low resistance to the crisis. 3) Economic resilience in SSA regions exhibited significant spatial agglomeration and mixed spatial characteristics. 4) The eastern regions of SSA have some capacity for shock resistance as they demonstrated a robust resistance index while the western bloc showed greater resilience in recovering from the crisis. 5) The resistance to COVID-19 was weaker relatively to the 2008 financial crisis. These findings are crucial as they offer a clear rationale for regional planning during crises, particularly when structural policies may appear less urgent or more appropriate relative to short-term demand policies. Thus, structural vulnerabilities directly inhibit the efficacy of timely responses to crises. Consequently, regional planning must integrate both approaches: using demand policies to address immediate shock, while simultaneously deploying targeted operational policies to strengthen the region’s inborn resilience and effective recovery from shocks.