An Integrated LUCIS-based Approach to the Exploration of Land Use Conflicts and Determination of Urban Preferences for Sakarya Central Planning Region (SCPR), Türkiye

  • Abstract: Rapid urbanisation processes in developing countries often proceed unchecked, leading to the conversion of agricultural and forest areas to meet housing needs. A greater understanding of the interactions between agriculture, conservation and urban is required to support the sustainable development of the Sakarya Central Planning Region (SCPR), Türkiye. In this study, we developed a criteria hierarchy consisting of goals, and objectives, subobjectives to identify land use conflicts (LUCs) and land us preferences (LUPs) among agriculture, conservation and urban categories of the SCPR during 2018–2023. Then, we modelled this criteria hierarchy, based on the Land Use Conflict Identification Strategy (LUCIS) model, using the ModelBuilder tool. Finally, we used the conflict cube to identify the relationship among these three land use categories. The results show that LUCs occurred in 21.16% (30 730 hectares) of the SCPR, with 10.63% (15 431 hectares) corresponding to large conflict zones where agricultural, conservation, and urban preferences overlap simultaneously. The distribution of moderate conflicts was quantified as 3.82% (5553 ha) for agriculture-urban, 3.43% (4987 ha) for agriculture-conservation, and 3.28% (4757 ha) for conservation-urban interactions. In contrast, 66.36% (96 371 ha) of the area was classified as no-conflict LUPs. In these zones, agricultural preference accounts for 26.53% (38 526.7 ha), conservation preference accounts for 36.01% (52 292.7 ha), and urban preference accounts for 3.82% (5551.6 ha), with each category showing its own reserve areas for its own use. Existing settlement, conservation and open water areas where no conflicts were investigated, totalling 12.48% (18 130 ha), were masked. The findings demonstrate that urban sprawl pressure is particularly concentrated on the fertile agricultural lands of the SCPR and the protected areas along the shores of Lake Sapanca. This study provides a scientific framework for sustainable future goals by identifying conflicts and preferences in the SCPR.

     

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