Abstract:
Rapid increases in Carbon dioxide (CO
2) levels could trigger unpredictable climate change. The assessment of spatiotemporal variation and influencing factors of CO
2 concentration are helpful in understanding the source/sink balance and supporting the formulation of climate policy. In this study, Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) data were used to explore the variability of CO
2 concentrations in China from 2009 to 2020. Meteorological parameters, vegetation cover, and anthropogenic activities were combined to explain the increase in CO
2 concentration, using pixel-based correlations and Covariance Based Structural Equation Modeling (CB-SEM) analysis. The results showed that the influence of vertical CO
2 transport diminished with altitude, with a distinct inter-annual increase in CO
2 concentrations at 17 vertical levels. Spatially, the highest values were observed in East China, whereas the lowest were observed in Northwest China. There were significant seasonal variations in CO
2 concentration, with maximum and minimum values in spring (April) and summer (August), respectively. According to the pixel-based correlation analysis, the near-surface CO
2 concentration was positively correlated with population (
r = 0.99,
P < 0.001), Leaf Area Index (LAI,
r = 0.95,
P < 0.001), emissions (
r = 0.91,
P < 0.001), temperature (
r = 0.60,
P < 0.05), precipitation (
r = 0.34,
P > 0.05), soil water (
r = 0.29,
P > 0.05), nightlight (
r = 0.28,
P > 0.05); and negatively correlated with wind speed (
r = −0.58,
P < 0.05). CB-SEM analysis revealed that LAI was the most important controlling factor explaining CO
2 concentration variation (total effect of 0.66), followed by emissions (0.58), temperature (0.45), precipitation (0.30), wind speed (−0.28), and soil water (−0.07). The model explained 93% of the increase in CO
2 concentration. Our results provide crucial information on the patterns of CO
2 concentrations and their driving mechanisms, which are particularly significant in the context of climate change.