关键词: 
population growth /
cultivated land /
available food per capita /
food security /
China

摘要: The population growth and demand for high living standard not only increase food demand but also cause more loss of the limited cultivated land resources.Cultivated land loss caused by disasters and the implementation of the “Conversion of Cropland to Forest or Grassland” project make this situation even worse in China.Thus,there is a problem to be solved imminently that to what extent the cultivated land can guarantee food security of China.Based on time-series data on food production and cultivated land area from 1989 to 2003 and other research results,this paper constructs quality index of cultivated land according to different land quality.Regression models are adopted to predicate changes of main factors from 2004 to 2030,which have great effect on cultivated land area or grain productivity,and verify accuracy with coefficient of determination(R²).Nine results were got according to three scenarios of decreasing rate of population growth rate and three cases of urban and rural built-up area per capita.There results show that China's food supply can only be maintained at a low to middle level of 370-410kg per capita,that is,China has enough land productivity to meet primary demand of food independently.However,it cannot reach the safe target of 500kg per capita if there is no breakthrough in breeding or no remarkable improvement of irrigation works,when the grain self-sufficiency maintains no less than 80%.To breed productive crops and to improve land productivity by meliorating low quality cultivated land are appropriate measures to shrink the gap between food demand and supply.The results may offer helpful information for the formulation of policies on population growth,land use,protection of cultivated land.