摘要:  Runoff change and trend of the Naoli River Basin were studied through the time series analysis using the data from the
hydrological and meteorological stations. Time series of hydrological data were from 1957 to 2009 for Bao′an station, from 1955 to 2009
for Baoqing station, from 1956 to 2009 for Caizuizi station and from 1978 to 2009 for Hongqiling station. The influences of climate change
and human activities on runoff change were investigated, and the causes of hydrological regime change were revealed. The seasonal
runoff distribution of the Naoli River was extremely uneven, and the annual change was great. Overall, the annual runoff showed a
significant decreasing trend. The annual runoff of Bao′an, Baoqing, and Caizuizi stations in 2009 decreased by 64.1%, 76.3%, and 84.3%,
respectively, compared with their beginning data recorded. The wet and dry years of the Naoli River have changed in the study period.
The frequency of wet year occurrence decreased and lasted longer, whereas that of dry year occurrence increased. The frequency of
dry year occurrence increased from 25.0%–27.8% to 83.9%–87.5%. The years before the 1970s were mostly wet, whereas those after
the 1970s were mostly dry. Precipitation reduction and land use changes contributed to the decrease in annual runoff. Rising temperature
and water project construction have also contributed important effects on the runoff change of the Naoli River.