中国地理科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (1): 126-136.doi: 10.1007/s11769-021-1179-7

• Big Data and Urban Study • 上一篇    下一篇

Spatio-temporal Changes and Associated Uncertainties of CENTURY-modelled SOC for Chinese Upland Soils, 1980−2010

LIU Xiaoyu1,2, ZHAO Yongcun2, SHI Xuezheng2, WANG Shihang3, FENG Xiang1, YAN Fang1   

  1. 1. Department of Information Engineering, Jiangsu Vocational College of Agriculture and Forestry, Jurong 212400, China;
    2. State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China;
    3. Anhui University of Science &Technology, Huainan 232001, China
  • 收稿日期:2020-07-02 发布日期:2021-01-05
  • 通讯作者: ZHAO Yongcun E-mail:yczhao@issas.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    Under the auspices of National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2017YFA0603002), National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 31800358, 31700369), Jiangsu Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Fund (No. CX(19)3099), the Foundation of Jiangsu Vocational College of Agriculture and Forestry (No. 2019kj014)

Spatio-temporal Changes and Associated Uncertainties of CENTURY-modelled SOC for Chinese Upland Soils, 1980−2010

LIU Xiaoyu1,2, ZHAO Yongcun2, SHI Xuezheng2, WANG Shihang3, FENG Xiang1, YAN Fang1   

  1. 1. Department of Information Engineering, Jiangsu Vocational College of Agriculture and Forestry, Jurong 212400, China;
    2. State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China;
    3. Anhui University of Science &Technology, Huainan 232001, China
  • Received:2020-07-02 Published:2021-01-05
  • Contact: ZHAO Yongcun E-mail:yczhao@issas.ac.cn
  • Supported by:
    Under the auspices of National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2017YFA0603002), National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 31800358, 31700369), Jiangsu Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Fund (No. CX(19)3099), the Foundation of Jiangsu Vocational College of Agriculture and Forestry (No. 2019kj014)

摘要: Detailed information on the spatio-temporal changes of cropland soil organic carbon (SOC) can significantly contribute to the improvement of soil fertility and mitigate climate change. Nonetheless, information and knowledge on the national scale spatio-temporal changes and the corresponding uncertainties of SOC in Chinese upland soils remain limited. The CENTURY model was used to estimate the SOC storages and their changes in Chinese uplands from 1980 to 2010. With the Monte Carlo method, the uncertainties of CENTURY-modelled SOC dynamics associated with the spatial heterogeneous model inputs were quantified. Results revealed that the SOC storage in Chinese uplands increased from 3.03 (1.59 to 4.78) Pg C in 1980 to 3.40 (2.39 to 4.62) Pg C in 2010. Increment of SOC storage during this period was 370 Tg C, with an uncertainty interval of –440 to 1110 Tg C. The regional disparities of SOC changes reached a significant level, with considerable SOC accumulation in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China and SOC loss in the northeastern China. The SOC lost from Meadow soils, Black soils and Chernozems was most severe, whilst SOC accumulation in Fluvo-aquic soils, Cinnamon soils and Purplish soils was most significant. In modelling large-scale SOC dynamics, the initial soil properties were major sources of uncertainty. Hence, more detailed information concerning the soil properties must be collected. The SOC stock of Chinese uplands in 2010 was still relatively low, manifesting that recommended agricultural management practices in conjunction with effectively economic and policy incentives to farmers for soil fertility improvement were indispensable for future carbon sequestration in these regions.

关键词: soil organic carbon (SOC), CENTURY model, uncertainty analysis, heterogeneous model input data, spatio-temporal change

Abstract: Detailed information on the spatio-temporal changes of cropland soil organic carbon (SOC) can significantly contribute to the improvement of soil fertility and mitigate climate change. Nonetheless, information and knowledge on the national scale spatio-temporal changes and the corresponding uncertainties of SOC in Chinese upland soils remain limited. The CENTURY model was used to estimate the SOC storages and their changes in Chinese uplands from 1980 to 2010. With the Monte Carlo method, the uncertainties of CENTURY-modelled SOC dynamics associated with the spatial heterogeneous model inputs were quantified. Results revealed that the SOC storage in Chinese uplands increased from 3.03 (1.59 to 4.78) Pg C in 1980 to 3.40 (2.39 to 4.62) Pg C in 2010. Increment of SOC storage during this period was 370 Tg C, with an uncertainty interval of –440 to 1110 Tg C. The regional disparities of SOC changes reached a significant level, with considerable SOC accumulation in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China and SOC loss in the northeastern China. The SOC lost from Meadow soils, Black soils and Chernozems was most severe, whilst SOC accumulation in Fluvo-aquic soils, Cinnamon soils and Purplish soils was most significant. In modelling large-scale SOC dynamics, the initial soil properties were major sources of uncertainty. Hence, more detailed information concerning the soil properties must be collected. The SOC stock of Chinese uplands in 2010 was still relatively low, manifesting that recommended agricultural management practices in conjunction with effectively economic and policy incentives to farmers for soil fertility improvement were indispensable for future carbon sequestration in these regions.

Key words: soil organic carbon (SOC), CENTURY model, uncertainty analysis, heterogeneous model input data, spatio-temporal change