中国地理科学(英文版) ›› 2010, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (3): 226-235.doi: 10.1007/s11769-010-0226-6

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Projections of Wind Changes for 21st Century in China by Three Regional Climate Models

JIANG Ying1,2,3, LUO Yong1,3, ZHAO Zongci1,2,3, SHI Ying1,3, XU Yinlong4, ZHU Jinhong5   

  1. 1. National Climate Center of China, Beijing 100081, China;
    2. Center for Wind and Solar Energy Resources Assessment, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
    3. Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
    4. Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;
    5. Illinois State Water Survey, Department of Natural Resources, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, Illinois, 61820, USA
  • 收稿日期:2009-08-24 修回日期:2010-01-28 出版日期:2010-04-01 发布日期:2010-04-23
  • 通讯作者: JIANG Ying.E-mail:jiangy@cma.gov.cn E-mail:jiangy@cma.gov.cn
  • 基金资助:

    Under the jointly auspices of the Special Public Research for Meteorological Industry (No.GYHY200806009);Wind Energy Resources Detailed Survey and Assessment Work;EU-China Energy and Environment Program (No.Europe Aid/123310/D/Ser/CN)

Projections of Wind Changes for 21st Century in China by Three Regional Climate Models

JIANG Ying1,2,3, LUO Yong1,3, ZHAO Zongci1,2,3, SHI Ying1,3, XU Yinlong4, ZHU Jinhong5   

  1. 1. National Climate Center of China, Beijing 100081, China;
    2. Center for Wind and Solar Energy Resources Assessment, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
    3. Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;
    4. Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;
    5. Illinois State Water Survey, Department of Natural Resources, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, Illinois, 61820, USA
  • Received:2009-08-24 Revised:2010-01-28 Online:2010-04-01 Published:2010-04-23
  • Supported by:

    Under the jointly auspices of the Special Public Research for Meteorological Industry (No.GYHY200806009);Wind Energy Resources Detailed Survey and Assessment Work;EU-China Energy and Environment Program (No.Europe Aid/123310/D/Ser/CN)

摘要:

This paper examines the capability of three regional climate models (RCMs), i.e., RegCM3 (the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model), PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) and CMM5 (the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-the National Center for Atmospheric Research of USA, NCAR Mesoscale Model) to simulate the near-surface-layer winds (10 m above surface) all over China in the late 20th century. Results suggest that like global climate models (GCMs), these RCMs have the certain capability of imitating the distribution of mean wind speed and fail to simulate the greatly weakening wind trends for the past 50 years in the country. However, RCMs especially RegCM3 have the better capability than that of GCMs to simulate the distribution and change feature of mean wind speed. In view of their merits, these RCMs were used to project the variability of near-surface-layer winds over China for the 21st century. The results show that 1) summer mean wind speed for 2020-2029 will be lower compared to those in 1990-1999 in most area of China;2) annual and winter mean wind speed for 2081-2100 will be lower than those of 1971-1990 in the whole China;and 3) the changes of summer mean wind speed for 2081-2100 are uncertain. As a result, although climate models are absolutely necessary for projecting climate change to come, there are great uncertainties in projections, especially for wind speed, and these issues need to be further explored.

关键词: wind speed, projection, regional climate model, global climate model

Abstract:

This paper examines the capability of three regional climate models (RCMs), i.e., RegCM3 (the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model), PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) and CMM5 (the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-the National Center for Atmospheric Research of USA, NCAR Mesoscale Model) to simulate the near-surface-layer winds (10 m above surface) all over China in the late 20th century. Results suggest that like global climate models (GCMs), these RCMs have the certain capability of imitating the distribution of mean wind speed and fail to simulate the greatly weakening wind trends for the past 50 years in the country. However, RCMs especially RegCM3 have the better capability than that of GCMs to simulate the distribution and change feature of mean wind speed. In view of their merits, these RCMs were used to project the variability of near-surface-layer winds over China for the 21st century. The results show that 1) summer mean wind speed for 2020-2029 will be lower compared to those in 1990-1999 in most area of China;2) annual and winter mean wind speed for 2081-2100 will be lower than those of 1971-1990 in the whole China;and 3) the changes of summer mean wind speed for 2081-2100 are uncertain. As a result, although climate models are absolutely necessary for projecting climate change to come, there are great uncertainties in projections, especially for wind speed, and these issues need to be further explored.

Key words: wind speed, projection, regional climate model, global climate model