中国地理科学(英文版) ›› 2010, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (3): 193-201.doi: 10.1007/s11769-010-0193-y

• 论文 •    下一篇

Impacts of Climatic Change on River Runoff in Northern Xinjiang of China over Last Fifty Years

YANG Yuhui1,2,3, CHEN Yaning1, LI Weihong1, WANG Minzhong4, SUN Guili1,3   

  1. 1. The Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology and Desert Environment, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;
    2. School of Geographic Science and Tourism, Normal University of Xinjiang, Urumqi 830054, China;
    3. Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    4. Institute of Desert and Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
  • 收稿日期:2009-09-09 修回日期:2010-02-25 出版日期:2010-04-01 发布日期:2010-04-23
  • 通讯作者: CHEN Yaning.E-mail:chenyn@ms.xjb.ac.cn E-mail:chenyn@ms.xjb.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    Under the auspices of Knowledge Innovation Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.KZCX2-YW-127, KZCX2-XB2-03-01, KZCX2-Q10-5-4)

Impacts of Climatic Change on River Runoff in Northern Xinjiang of China over Last Fifty Years

YANG Yuhui1,2,3, CHEN Yaning1, LI Weihong1, WANG Minzhong4, SUN Guili1,3   

  1. 1. The Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology and Desert Environment, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;
    2. School of Geographic Science and Tourism, Normal University of Xinjiang, Urumqi 830054, China;
    3. Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    4. Institute of Desert and Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
  • Received:2009-09-09 Revised:2010-02-25 Online:2010-04-01 Published:2010-04-23
  • Supported by:

    Under the auspices of Knowledge Innovation Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.KZCX2-YW-127, KZCX2-XB2-03-01, KZCX2-Q10-5-4)

摘要:

The characteristics of climatic change and river runoff, as well as the response of river runoff to climatic change in the northern Xinjiang are analyzed on the basis of the hydrological and meteorological data over the last 50 years by the methods of Mann-Kendall nonparametric test and the nonlinear regression model. The results show that: 1) The temperature and the precipitation increased significantly in the whole northern Xinjiang, but the precipitation displayed no obvious change, or even a decreasing trend in the northern mountainous area of the northern Xinjiang. 2) River runoff varied in different regions in the northern Xinjiang. It significantly increased in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the north of the northern Xinjiang (p=0.05), while slightly increased in the west of the northern Xinjiang. 3) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) affects river runoff by influencing temperature and precipitation. The NAO and precipitation had apparent significant correlations with the river runoff, but the temperature did not in the northern Xinjiang. Since the mid-1990s river runoff increase was mainly caused by the increasing temperature in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the north of the northern Xinjiang. Increased precipitation resulted in increased river runoff in the west of the northern Xinjiang.

关键词: climatic change, river runoff, Mann-Kendall test, nonlinear regression model, NAO, northern Xinjiang

Abstract:

The characteristics of climatic change and river runoff, as well as the response of river runoff to climatic change in the northern Xinjiang are analyzed on the basis of the hydrological and meteorological data over the last 50 years by the methods of Mann-Kendall nonparametric test and the nonlinear regression model. The results show that: 1) The temperature and the precipitation increased significantly in the whole northern Xinjiang, but the precipitation displayed no obvious change, or even a decreasing trend in the northern mountainous area of the northern Xinjiang. 2) River runoff varied in different regions in the northern Xinjiang. It significantly increased in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the north of the northern Xinjiang (p=0.05), while slightly increased in the west of the northern Xinjiang. 3) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) affects river runoff by influencing temperature and precipitation. The NAO and precipitation had apparent significant correlations with the river runoff, but the temperature did not in the northern Xinjiang. Since the mid-1990s river runoff increase was mainly caused by the increasing temperature in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the north of the northern Xinjiang. Increased precipitation resulted in increased river runoff in the west of the northern Xinjiang.

Key words: climatic change, river runoff, Mann-Kendall test, nonlinear regression model, NAO, northern Xinjiang