中国地理科学(英文版) ›› 2008, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (1): 77-84.doi: 10.1007/s11769-008-0077-6

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

Long-term Trend and Fractal of Annual Runoff Process in Mainstream of Tarim River

XU Jianhua1, CHEN Yaning2, LI Weihong2, DONG Shan1   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 200062, China;Department of Geography, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China;
    2. The Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology and Desert Environment, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
  • 收稿日期:2007-07-15 修回日期:2007-12-02 出版日期:2008-03-20 发布日期:2011-12-14
  • 通讯作者: XU Jianhua. E-mail: jhxu@geo.ecnu.edu.cn E-mail:jhxu@geo.ecnu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:

    Under the auspices of the Second-stage Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-XB2-03);Major Direction of Knowledge Innovation Progromt of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-YW-127);Shanghai Academic Discipline Project (Human Geography) (No. B410)

Long-term Trend and Fractal of Annual Runoff Process in Mainstream of Tarim River

XU Jianhua1, CHEN Yaning2, LI Weihong2, DONG Shan1   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 200062, China;Department of Geography, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China;
    2. The Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology and Desert Environment, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
  • Received:2007-07-15 Revised:2007-12-02 Online:2008-03-20 Published:2011-12-14
  • Supported by:

    Under the auspices of the Second-stage Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-XB2-03);Major Direction of Knowledge Innovation Progromt of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-YW-127);Shanghai Academic Discipline Project (Human Geography) (No. B410)

摘要:

Based on the time series data from the Aral hydrological station for the period of 1958-2005,the paper re-veals the long-term trend and fractal of the annual runoff process in the mainstream of the Tarim River by using the wavelet analysis method and the fractal theory.The main conclusions are as follows:1)From a large time scale point of view,i.e.the time scale of 16(24)years,the annual runoff basically shows a slightly decreasing trend as a whole from 1958 to 2005.If the time scale is reduced to 8(23)or 4(22)years,the annual runoff still displays the basic trend as the large time scale,but it has fluctuated more obviously during the period.2)The correlation dimension for the annual runoff process is 3.4307,non-integral,which indicates that the process has both fractal and chaotic characteris-tics.The correlation dimension is above 3,which means that at least four independent variables are needed to describe the dynamics of the annual runoff process.3)The Hurst exponent for the first period(1958-1973)is 0.5036,which equals 0.5 approximately and indicates that the annual runoff process is in chaos.The Hurst exponents for the second(1974-1989)and third(1990-2005)periods are both greater than 0.50,which indicate that the annual runoff process showed a long-enduring characteristic in the two periods.The Hurst exponent for the period from 1990 to 2005 indicates that the annual runoff will show a slightly increasing trend in the 16 years after 2005.

关键词: annual runoff, wavelet, fractal, Tarim River

Abstract:

Based on the time series data from the Aral hydrological station for the period of 1958-2005,the paper re-veals the long-term trend and fractal of the annual runoff process in the mainstream of the Tarim River by using the wavelet analysis method and the fractal theory.The main conclusions are as follows:1)From a large time scale point of view,i.e.the time scale of 16(24)years,the annual runoff basically shows a slightly decreasing trend as a whole from 1958 to 2005.If the time scale is reduced to 8(23)or 4(22)years,the annual runoff still displays the basic trend as the large time scale,but it has fluctuated more obviously during the period.2)The correlation dimension for the annual runoff process is 3.4307,non-integral,which indicates that the process has both fractal and chaotic characteris-tics.The correlation dimension is above 3,which means that at least four independent variables are needed to describe the dynamics of the annual runoff process.3)The Hurst exponent for the first period(1958-1973)is 0.5036,which equals 0.5 approximately and indicates that the annual runoff process is in chaos.The Hurst exponents for the second(1974-1989)and third(1990-2005)periods are both greater than 0.50,which indicate that the annual runoff process showed a long-enduring characteristic in the two periods.The Hurst exponent for the period from 1990 to 2005 indicates that the annual runoff will show a slightly increasing trend in the 16 years after 2005.

Key words: annual runoff, wavelet, fractal, Tarim River