中国地理科学(英文版) ›› 2008, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (1): 9-16.doi: 10.1007/s11769-008-0009-5

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

Empirical Analysis of Xinjiang's Bilateral Trade: Gravity Model Approach

CHEN Xuegang1,2, YANG Zhaoping1, LIU Xuling1   

  1. 1. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;
    2. Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • 收稿日期:2007-01-18 修回日期:2007-10-10 出版日期:2008-03-20 发布日期:2011-12-14
  • 通讯作者: CHEN Xuegang. E-mail: caschxg@126.com E-mail:caschxg@126.com
  • 基金资助:

    Under the auspices of Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCS-SW-355)

Empirical Analysis of Xinjiang's Bilateral Trade: Gravity Model Approach

CHEN Xuegang1,2, YANG Zhaoping1, LIU Xuling1   

  1. 1. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;
    2. Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2007-01-18 Revised:2007-10-10 Online:2008-03-20 Published:2011-12-14
  • Supported by:

    Under the auspices of Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCS-SW-355)

摘要:

Based on the basic trade gravity model and Xinjiang's practical situation, new explanatory variables (GDP, GDPpc and SCO) are introduced to build an extended trade gravity model fitting for Xinjiang's bilateral trade. From the empirical analysis of this model, it is proposed that those three variables affect the Xinjiang's bilateral trade positively. Whereas, geographic distance is found to be a significant factor influencing Xinjiang's bilateral trade negatively. Then, by the extended trade gravity model, this article analyzes the present trade situation between Xinjiang and its main trade partners quantitatively in 2004. The results indicate that Xinjiang cooperates with its most trade partners successfully in terms of present economic scale and developing level. Xinjiang has established successfully trade partnership with Central Asia, Central Europe and Eastern Europe, Western Europe, East Asia and South Asia. However, the foreign trade development with West Asia is much slower. Finally, some suggestions on developing Xinjiang's foreign trade are put forward.

关键词: trade gravity model, extended trade gravity model, bilateral trade, Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Xinjiang

Abstract:

Based on the basic trade gravity model and Xinjiang's practical situation, new explanatory variables (GDP, GDPpc and SCO) are introduced to build an extended trade gravity model fitting for Xinjiang's bilateral trade. From the empirical analysis of this model, it is proposed that those three variables affect the Xinjiang's bilateral trade positively. Whereas, geographic distance is found to be a significant factor influencing Xinjiang's bilateral trade negatively. Then, by the extended trade gravity model, this article analyzes the present trade situation between Xinjiang and its main trade partners quantitatively in 2004. The results indicate that Xinjiang cooperates with its most trade partners successfully in terms of present economic scale and developing level. Xinjiang has established successfully trade partnership with Central Asia, Central Europe and Eastern Europe, Western Europe, East Asia and South Asia. However, the foreign trade development with West Asia is much slower. Finally, some suggestions on developing Xinjiang's foreign trade are put forward.

Key words: trade gravity model, extended trade gravity model, bilateral trade, Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Xinjiang