A MODEL SIMULATING THE PROCESSES IN RESPONSES OF GLACIER AND RUNOFF TO CLIMATIC CHANGE─A Case Study of Glacier No. 1 in the ürümqi River, China

Key words: 
• glacier /
• runoff /
• climate change /
• responses

Abstract: This paper presents a dynamic glacier model that simulates the processes in response of Glacier No. 1 in headwaters of the Urumqi River to various future climatic scenarios The results indicate that the Glader No. 1 will continue retreating if current climatic conditions prevail, until it reaches an equilibrium state of 1600 m in length after 700 to 800 years. If air temperature raise 1℃, the glacier would become a hanging glacier with a length of 300 m after 700 to 800 years. Due to its retreat, cooling function of the glacier would be weakened, resulting in the air temperature in glaciated area higher than that in ice-free areas. The results also indicate that the current glacier melt runoff is in higher value period in comparison with the runoff in the equilibrium state under the current climatic condition. If the air temperature continues increasing, however, the runoff would still increase to a new peak and then decrease rapidly.