STUDY ON CARGO FLOW PROJECTION IN TUMEN RIVER ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AREA

Key words: 
• cargo flow projection /
• routes comparison model /
• gravity model /
• sensitivity analyses

Abstract: The paper studies the methodologies of the cargo flow study and projections in Tumen River Economic Development Area(TREDA) that some governments and international scholars used. The authors consider that, in order topromote investment, facilitation of cross-border trade and infrastructure in the region, the basic methodology should bebased on the regional economic growth of pertinent Northeast Asian countries and regions to make projections of the situations of regional cargo flows, and then analyzing the cargo flow trend. Based on the above, the authors utilize the routescomparing model and gravity model to forecast the cargo flows through the ports and related routes in TREDA (2000 -2020). The authors also inquire into the main obstacles which affect the cargo flows of the region, analyze the influenceson cargo flows if the obstacles change with sensitivity analyses and try to find the way to sole the obstacles.