Research on analyzing and forecasting the upper air climate change over Harbin

Key words: 
• upper air climate

Abstract: Based on the meteorological sounding data for 1970~2005 over Harbin, this research carries on the analysis and the forecast to the Harbin ground and the upper air climate change using the linear simulation, correlation analysis, and regression analysis. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) climatic change is obvious in the middle and lower troposphere and the lower stratosphere. It becomes warmer and wetter in the middle and lower troposphere; the meridional wind becomes weaker in the lower troposphere, the annual mean wind speed also decreases. In the lower stratosphere the temperature drops, and the westerly wind speed noticeably increases, but other essential factors does not change significantly. (2) The increase of ground temperature is related to not only carbon dioxide, but also the water vapor. The carbon dioxide contributes more than the water vapor to the ground temperature increase. (3) This paper has established quantitative equations between the ground temperature, the carbon dioxide and water vapor. The forecast results show that if the emission concentration of carbon dioxide remains unchanged, the rate of Harbin surface temperature increasing is 0.85℃/10a; if it decreased to 75%, the rate is 0.65℃/10a; if it decreased to 50%, the rate is 0.46℃/10a; if it decreased to 25%, the rise rate is 0.27℃/10a. (4) This paper has also established equations between the temperature and the water vapor for various upper air levels. The water vapor has an increased impact on the warming of the temperature with the increase of the altitude.