Sensitivity Analysis of Thermal Equilibrium Parameters of MIKE 11 Model：A Case Study of Wuxikou Reservoir in Jiangxi Province of China

WANG Qinggai; ZHAO Xiaohong; CHEN Kaiqi; LIANG Peng; LI Shibei

doi:10.1007/s11769-013-0628-3

Volume 23 Issue 5

Turn off MathJax

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Chinese Geographical Science > 2013 > 23(5): 584-593

WANG Qinggai, ZHAO Xiaohong, CHEN Kaiqi, LIANG Peng, LI Shibei. Sensitivity Analysis of Thermal Equilibrium Parameters of MIKE 11 Model：A Case Study of Wuxikou Reservoir in Jiangxi Province of China[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 2013, 23(5): 584-593. doi: 10.1007/s11769-013-0628-3

Citation:

WANG Qinggai, ZHAO Xiaohong, CHEN Kaiqi, LIANG Peng, LI Shibei. Sensitivity Analysis of Thermal Equilibrium Parameters of MIKE 11 Model：A Case Study of Wuxikou Reservoir in Jiangxi Province of China[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 2013, 23(5): 584-593. doi: 10.1007/s11769-013-0628-3

Sensitivity Analysis of Thermal Equilibrium Parameters of MIKE 11 Model：A Case Study of Wuxikou Reservoir in Jiangxi Province of China

doi: 10.1007/s11769-013-0628-3

State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Environment Impact Assessment, Appraisal Center for Environment and Engineering, Ministry of Environmental Protection, Beijing 100012, China

Funds: Foundation item: Under the auspices of Research & Development Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry of Ministry of Environmental Protection (No. 201309062, 201309003)

More Information

Corresponding author: ZHAO Xiaohong,E-mail: zhaoxh@acee.org.cn
Received Date: 2012-09-26
Rev Recd Date: 2012-12-24
Publish Date: 2013-09-10

Abstract

Sensitivity analysis of thermal equilibrium parameters in the reservoir module of MIKE 11 model was conducted for the Wuxikou Reservoir in Jiangxi Province of China in order to apply the module to the environmental impact assessment to accurately predict water temperature of reservoirs. Results showed that radiation parameter A and evaporation-first parameter were much more sensitive than other parameters. The values of the radiation parameter A ranged from 0.10 to 0.34. The values of evaporation-first parameter varied from 0 to 10. The sensitivity of solar absorption parameters was less than that of evaporation parameter, of which light attenuation values ranged from 0.5 to 0.7, and this parameter would not impact model results if it was more than 2. Constants in Beer's law ranged from 0.2 to 0.7. Radiation parameter B was not more sensitive than evaporation parameter and its reasonable range was higher than 0.48. The fitting curves showed consistent changing tendency for these parameters within the reasonable ranges. Additionally, all the thermal equilibrium parameters had much more important effects on surface water temperature than deep water temperature. Moreover, if no observed data could be obtained, the local empirical value would be used to input to the MIKE 11 model to simulate the changes in the discharged outflow-water temperature qualitatively.
- MIKE 11 model,
- thermal equilibrium parameters,
- discharged outflow-water temperature,
- sensitivity analysis,
- temperature difference

References

[1]	Bai J H, Cui B S, Chen B et al., 2011. Spatial distribution and ecological risk assessment of heavy metals in surface sediments from a typical plateau lake wetland, China. Ecological Modelling, 222(2): 301-306. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009. 12
[2]	Bai J H, Gao H F, Xiao R et al., 2012a. A review of Soil nitrogen mineralization in coastal wetlands: Issues and methods. Clean-Soil, Air, Water, 40(10): 1099-1105. doi: 10.1002/clen.2012 00055
[3]	Bai J H, Xiao R, Zhang K J et al., 2012b. Arsenic and heavy metal pollution in wetland soils from tidal freshwater and salt marshes before and after the flow-sediment regulation regime in the Yellow River Delta, China. Journal of Hydrology, 450-451: 244-253. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.05.006
[4]	Beven K J, Freer J, 2001. Equifinality, data assimilation and uncertainty estimation in mechanistic modeling of complex environ-mental systems using the GLUE methodology. Journal of Hydrology, 249(1-4): 11-29. doi: 10.1016/S0022-1694(01) 00421-8
[5]	Beven K, Binley A, 1992. Future of distributed models: Model calibration and uncertainty prediction. Hydrological Processes, 6(3): 279-298. doi: 10.1002/hyp.3360060305
[6]	Borgonovo E, Tarantola S, 2012. Advances in sensitivity analysis. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 107: 1-2. doi: 10.1016/j.ress.2012.09.001
[7]	Chen Jiongfeng, Zhang Wanchang, 2006. Application of genetic algorithm for model parameter calibration in daily rainfall-runoff simulations with the Xin'anjiang model. Journal of China Hydrology, 26(4): 32-38. (in Chinese)
[8]	Fan S f, Feng M q, Liu Z, 2009. Simulation of water temperature distribution in Fenhe Reservoir. Water Science and Engineering, 2(2): 32-42.
[9]	Hapuarachchi H A, Li Zhijia, Wang Shouhui, 2001. Application of SCE-UA method on parameter optimization of Xin'anjiang model. Journal of Lake Sciences, 13(4): 305-314. (in Chinese)
[10]	Huang Guoru, Xie Hehai, 2007. Uncertainty analyses of watershed hydrological model based on GLUE method. Journal of South China University of Technology: Natural Science Edition, 35(3): 137-142, 149. (in Chinese)
[11]	Jiang Chunbo, Zhang Qinghai, Gao Zhongxin, 2000. A 2-D unsteady flow model for predicting temperature and pollutant distribution in vertical cross section of a river. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 31(9): 20-24. (in Chinese)
[12]	Lamboni M, Monod H, Makowski D, 2011. Multivariate sensitivity analysis to measure global contribution of input factors in dynamic models. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 96(4): 450-459. doi: 10.1016/j.ress.2010.12.002
[13]	Pekárová P, Miklánek P, Halmová D et al., 2011. Long-term trend and multi-annual variability of water temperature in the pristine Bela River basin (Slovakia). Journal of Hydrology, 400: 333-340. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.01.048
[14]	Wang Guan, Han Longxi, Chang Wenting, 2009. Modeling water temperature distribution in reservoirs with 2D laterally averaged flow-temperature coupled model. Water Resources Protection, 25(2): 59-63. (in Chinese)
[15]	Wang Q G, Bai J H, Huang L B et al., 2011a. Soil nutrient distribution in two typical paddy terrace wetlands along an elevation gradient during the fallow period. Journal of Mountain Science, 8(3): 476-483. doi: 10.1007/s11629-011-1122-y
[16]	Wang Q G, Zhao X H, Yang M S et al., 2011b. Water quality model establishment for middle and lower reaches of Hanshui River, China. Chinese Geographical Science, 21(6): 646-655. doi: 10.1007/s11769-011-0504-y
[17]	Xiao R, Bai J H, Gao H F et al., 2012. Spatial distribution of phosphorous in marsh soils from a typical land/inland water ectone along a hydrological gradient. Catena, 98: 96-103. doi: 10.1016/j.catena.2012.06.008
[18]	Xiao R, Bai J H, Zhang H G et al., 2011. Changes of P, Ca, Al and Fe contents in fringe marshes along a pedogenicchrono sequence in the Pearl River estuary, South China. Continental Shelf Research, 31(6): 739-747. doi: 10.1016/j.csr.2011.01. 013
[19]	Zak S K, Beven K J, 1999. Equifinality, sensitivity and predictive uncertainty in the estimation of critical loads. Science of Total Environment, 236(1-3): 191-214. doi: 10.1016/S0048-9697 (99)00282-X
[20]	Zhang Jing, Ross M A, Geurink J, 2012. Discretization approach in integrated hydrologic model for surface and groundwater interaction. Chinese Geographical Science, 22(6): 659-672. doi: 10.1007/s11769-012-0566-5
[21]	Zhang Liru, Guan Yiqing, Ye Bin et al., 2008. Empirical study on parameter sensitivity analysis of Xin'anjiang model. Water Resources and Power, 26(5): 16-30. (in Chinese)
[22]	Zhang Shi, Peng Wenqi, 2009. Water temperature structure and influencing factors in Ertan Reservoir. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 40(10): 1254-1258. (in Chinese)

Proportional views

通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com

1.
沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院沈阳 110142

Get Citation

PDF

XML

Article Metrics

Article views(311) PDF downloads(1075) Cited by()

Proportional views

Sensitivity Analysis of Thermal Equilibrium Parameters of MIKE 11 Model：A Case Study of Wuxikou Reservoir in Jiangxi Province of China

State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Environment Impact Assessment, Appraisal Center for Environment and Engineering, Ministry of Environmental Protection, Beijing 100012, China

Funds: Foundation item: Under the auspices of Research & Development Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry of Ministry of Environmental Protection (No. 201309062, 201309003)

Corresponding author: ZHAO Xiaohong,E-mail: zhaoxh@acee.org.cn

Received Date: 2012-09-26

Rev Recd Date: 2012-12-24

Publish Date: 2013-09-10

Key words:

Abstract: Sensitivity analysis of thermal equilibrium parameters in the reservoir module of MIKE 11 model was conducted for the Wuxikou Reservoir in Jiangxi Province of China in order to apply the module to the environmental impact assessment to accurately predict water temperature of reservoirs. Results showed that radiation parameter A and evaporation-first parameter were much more sensitive than other parameters. The values of the radiation parameter A ranged from 0.10 to 0.34. The values of evaporation-first parameter varied from 0 to 10. The sensitivity of solar absorption parameters was less than that of evaporation parameter, of which light attenuation values ranged from 0.5 to 0.7, and this parameter would not impact model results if it was more than 2. Constants in Beer's law ranged from 0.2 to 0.7. Radiation parameter B was not more sensitive than evaporation parameter and its reasonable range was higher than 0.48. The fitting curves showed consistent changing tendency for these parameters within the reasonable ranges. Additionally, all the thermal equilibrium parameters had much more important effects on surface water temperature than deep water temperature. Moreover, if no observed data could be obtained, the local empirical value would be used to input to the MIKE 11 model to simulate the changes in the discharged outflow-water temperature qualitatively.

HTML

Reference (22)

[1]	Bai J H, Cui B S, Chen B et al., 2011. Spatial distribution and ecological risk assessment of heavy metals in surface sediments from a typical plateau lake wetland, China. Ecological Modelling, 222(2): 301-306. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009. 12
[2]	Bai J H, Gao H F, Xiao R et al., 2012a. A review of Soil nitrogen mineralization in coastal wetlands: Issues and methods. Clean-Soil, Air, Water, 40(10): 1099-1105. doi: 10.1002/clen.2012 00055
[3]	Bai J H, Xiao R, Zhang K J et al., 2012b. Arsenic and heavy metal pollution in wetland soils from tidal freshwater and salt marshes before and after the flow-sediment regulation regime in the Yellow River Delta, China. Journal of Hydrology, 450-451: 244-253. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.05.006
[4]	Beven K J, Freer J, 2001. Equifinality, data assimilation and uncertainty estimation in mechanistic modeling of complex environ-mental systems using the GLUE methodology. Journal of Hydrology, 249(1-4): 11-29. doi: 10.1016/S0022-1694(01) 00421-8
[5]	Beven K, Binley A, 1992. Future of distributed models: Model calibration and uncertainty prediction. Hydrological Processes, 6(3): 279-298. doi: 10.1002/hyp.3360060305
[6]	Borgonovo E, Tarantola S, 2012. Advances in sensitivity analysis. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 107: 1-2. doi: 10.1016/j.ress.2012.09.001
[7]	Chen Jiongfeng, Zhang Wanchang, 2006. Application of genetic algorithm for model parameter calibration in daily rainfall-runoff simulations with the Xin'anjiang model. Journal of China Hydrology, 26(4): 32-38. (in Chinese)
[8]	Fan S f, Feng M q, Liu Z, 2009. Simulation of water temperature distribution in Fenhe Reservoir. Water Science and Engineering, 2(2): 32-42.
[9]	Hapuarachchi H A, Li Zhijia, Wang Shouhui, 2001. Application of SCE-UA method on parameter optimization of Xin'anjiang model. Journal of Lake Sciences, 13(4): 305-314. (in Chinese)
[10]	Huang Guoru, Xie Hehai, 2007. Uncertainty analyses of watershed hydrological model based on GLUE method. Journal of South China University of Technology: Natural Science Edition, 35(3): 137-142, 149. (in Chinese)
[11]	Jiang Chunbo, Zhang Qinghai, Gao Zhongxin, 2000. A 2-D unsteady flow model for predicting temperature and pollutant distribution in vertical cross section of a river. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 31(9): 20-24. (in Chinese)
[12]	Lamboni M, Monod H, Makowski D, 2011. Multivariate sensitivity analysis to measure global contribution of input factors in dynamic models. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 96(4): 450-459. doi: 10.1016/j.ress.2010.12.002
[13]	Pekárová P, Miklánek P, Halmová D et al., 2011. Long-term trend and multi-annual variability of water temperature in the pristine Bela River basin (Slovakia). Journal of Hydrology, 400: 333-340. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.01.048
[14]	Wang Guan, Han Longxi, Chang Wenting, 2009. Modeling water temperature distribution in reservoirs with 2D laterally averaged flow-temperature coupled model. Water Resources Protection, 25(2): 59-63. (in Chinese)
[15]	Wang Q G, Bai J H, Huang L B et al., 2011a. Soil nutrient distribution in two typical paddy terrace wetlands along an elevation gradient during the fallow period. Journal of Mountain Science, 8(3): 476-483. doi: 10.1007/s11629-011-1122-y
[16]	Wang Q G, Zhao X H, Yang M S et al., 2011b. Water quality model establishment for middle and lower reaches of Hanshui River, China. Chinese Geographical Science, 21(6): 646-655. doi: 10.1007/s11769-011-0504-y
[17]	Xiao R, Bai J H, Gao H F et al., 2012. Spatial distribution of phosphorous in marsh soils from a typical land/inland water ectone along a hydrological gradient. Catena, 98: 96-103. doi: 10.1016/j.catena.2012.06.008
[18]	Xiao R, Bai J H, Zhang H G et al., 2011. Changes of P, Ca, Al and Fe contents in fringe marshes along a pedogenicchrono sequence in the Pearl River estuary, South China. Continental Shelf Research, 31(6): 739-747. doi: 10.1016/j.csr.2011.01. 013
[19]	Zak S K, Beven K J, 1999. Equifinality, sensitivity and predictive uncertainty in the estimation of critical loads. Science of Total Environment, 236(1-3): 191-214. doi: 10.1016/S0048-9697 (99)00282-X
[20]	Zhang Jing, Ross M A, Geurink J, 2012. Discretization approach in integrated hydrologic model for surface and groundwater interaction. Chinese Geographical Science, 22(6): 659-672. doi: 10.1007/s11769-012-0566-5
[21]	Zhang Liru, Guan Yiqing, Ye Bin et al., 2008. Empirical study on parameter sensitivity analysis of Xin'anjiang model. Water Resources and Power, 26(5): 16-30. (in Chinese)
[22]	Zhang Shi, Peng Wenqi, 2009. Water temperature structure and influencing factors in Ertan Reservoir. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 40(10): 1254-1258. (in Chinese)

Sensitivity Analysis of Thermal Equilibrium Parameters of MIKE 11 Model：A Case Study of Wuxikou Reservoir in Jiangxi Province of China

doi: 10.1007/s11769-013-0628-3

Abstract

References

Proportional views

通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com

Article Metrics

Proportional views

Related