Runoff Responses to Climate Change in Arid Region of Northwestern China During 1960-2010

WANG Huaijun; CHEN Yaning; LI Weihong; DENG Haijun

doi:10.1007/s11769-013-0605-x

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WANG Huaijun, CHEN Yaning, LI Weihong, DENG Haijun. Runoff Responses to Climate Change in Arid Region of Northwestern China During 1960-2010[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 2013, 23(3): 286-300. doi: 10.1007/s11769-013-0605-x

Citation:

WANG Huaijun, CHEN Yaning, LI Weihong, DENG Haijun. Runoff Responses to Climate Change in Arid Region of Northwestern China During 1960-2010[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 2013, 23(3): 286-300. doi: 10.1007/s11769-013-0605-x

Runoff Responses to Climate Change in Arid Region of Northwestern China During 1960-2010

doi: 10.1007/s11769-013-0605-x

1.
State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ürümqi 830011, China;
2.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Funds: Under the auspices of Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (No. 2010CB951003)

More Information

Corresponding author: CHEN Yaning. E-mail: chenyn@ms.xjb.ac.cn
Received Date: 2012-04-06
Rev Recd Date: 2012-08-03
Publish Date: 2013-05-29

Abstract

Based on runoff, air temperature, and precipitation data from 1960 to 2010, the effects of climate change on water resources in the arid region of the northwestern China were investigated. The long-term trends of hydroclimatic variables were studied by using both Mann-Kendall test and distributed-free cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart test. Results indicate that the mean annual air temperature increases significantly from 1960 to 2010. The annual precipitation exhibits an increasing trend, especially in the south slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the North Uygur Autonomous Region of Xinjiang in the study period. Step changes occur in 1988 in the mean annual air temperature time series and in 1991 in the precipitation time series. The runoff in different basins shows different trends, i.e., significantly increasing in the Kaidu River, the Aksu River and the Shule River, and decreasing in the Shiyang River. Correlation analysis reveals that the runoff in the North Xinjiang (i.e., the Weigan River, the Heihe River, and the Shiyang River) has a strong positive relationship with rainfall, while that in the south slope of the Tianshan Mountains, the middle section of the north slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the Shule River has a strong positive relationship with air temperature. The trends of runoff have strong negative correlations with glacier coverage and the proportion of glacier water in runoff. From the late 1980s, the climate has become warm and wet in the arid region of the northwestern China. The change in runoff is interacted with air temperature, precipitation and glacier coverage. The results show that streamflow in the arid region of the northwestern China is sensitive to climate change, which can be used as a reference for regional water resource assessment and management.
- hydroclimatic variables,
- climate change,
- step change,
- water resources,
- arid region

References

[1]	Alexandersson H, 1986. A homogeneity test applied to precipitation data. Journal of Climatology, 6(6): 661-675.
[2]	Boehmer K, Memon A, Mitchell B, 2000. Towards sustainable water management in Southeast Asia experiences from Indonesia and Malaysia. Water International, 25(3): 356-377.
[3]	Buishand T A, 1982. Some methods for testing the homogeneity of rainfall records. Journal of Hydrology, 58(1-2): 11-27. doi: 10.1016/0022-1694(82)90066-X
[4]	Chen Y N, Li W H, Xu C C et al., 2007. Effects of climate change on water resources in Tarim River Basin, Northwest China. Journal of Environmental Sciences-China, 19(4): 488-493. doi: 10.1016/S1001-0742(07)60082-5
[5]	Chiew F H S, McMahon T A, 1993. Detection of trend or change in annual flow of Australian rivers. International Journal of Climatology 13(6): 643-653. doi: 10.1002/joc.3370130605
[6]	Cunderlik J M, Simonovic S P, 2005. Hydrological extremes in a southwestern Ontario river basin under future climate conditions. Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques, 50(4): 631-654. doi: 10.1623/hysj.2005.50.4. 631
[7]	Feng Q, Endo K N, Cheng G D, 2001. Towards sustainable development of the environmentally degraded arid rivers of China—A case study from Tarim River. Environmental Geology, 41(1-2): 229-238.
[8]	Gupta P K, Panigrahy S, Parihar J S, 2011. Impact of climate change on runoff of the major river basins of India using global circulation model (HadCM3) projected data. Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing, 39(3): 337-344. doi: 10.1007/s12524-011-0101-7
[9]	Hao X M, Chen Y N, Xu C C et al., 2008. Impacts of climate change and human activities on the surface runoff in the Tarim River basin over the last fifty years. Water Resources Management, 22(9): 1159-1171. doi: 10.1007/s11269-007-9218-4
[10]	Kendall M G, 1975. Rank-Correlation Measures. London: Charles Griffin, 202.
[11]	Labat D, Godderis Y, Probst J L et al., 2004. Evidence for global runoff increase related to climate warming. Advances in Water Resources, 27(6): 631-642. doi: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2004.02. 020
[12]	Li W H, Chen Y N, Hao X M et al., 2007. Responses of streamflow to climate change in the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang: A case study of the Toutun River Basin. Science in China Series D-Earth Sciences, 50(supp. 1): 42-48. doi: 10.1007/s11430-007-5018-1
[13]	Li Z L, Xu Z X, Li J Y et al., 2008. Shift trend and step changes for runoff time series in the Shiyang River Basin, Northwest China. Hydrological Processes, 22(23): 4639-4646. doi: 10.1002/hyp.7127
[14]	Li Zhongqin, Li Kaiming, Wang Lin, 2010. Study on recent glacier changes and their impact on water resources in Xinjiang, northwestern China. Quaternary Sciences, 30(1): 96-106. (in Chinese)
[15]	Liu C, Chen Y, Xu Z, 2010. Eco-hydrology and sustainable development in the arid regions of China Preface. Hydrological Processes, 24(2): 127-128. doi: 10.1002/hyp.7481
[16]	Mann H B, 1945. Non-parametric tests against trend. Econo-metrica, 13(3): 245-259.
[17]	McGilchrist C A, Woodyer K D, 1975. Note on a Distribution-free CUSUM Technique. Technometrics, 17(3): 321-325.
[18]	Peterson T C, Easterling D R, Karl T R et al., 1998. Homogeneity adjustments of in situ atmospheric climate data: A review. International Journal of Climatology, 18(13): 1493-1517.
[19]	Probst J L, Tardy Y, 1987. Long-range streamflow and world continental runoff fluctuations since the beginning of this century. Journal of Hydrology, 94(3-4): 289-311.
[20]	Sun H L, Chen Y N, Li W H et al., 2010. Variation and abrupt change of climate in Ili River Basin, Xinjiang. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 20(5): 652-666. doi: 10.1007/s11442-010-0802-9
[21]	Tao H T H, Gemmer M, Bai Y G et al., 2011. Trends of streamflow in the Tarim River Basin during the past 50 years: Human impact or climate change? Journal of Hydrology, 400(1-2): 1-9. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.01.016
[22]	Teng J, Chew F H S, Vaze J et al., 2012. Estimation of climate change impact on mean annual runoff across continental Australia using Budyko and Fu equations and hydrological models. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 13(3): 1094-1106. doi: 10.1175/jhm-d-11-097.1
[23]	Wang J, Meng J, 2007. Research on runoff variations based on wavelet analysis and wavelet neural network model: A case study of the Heihe River Drainage Basin (1944-2005). Journal of Geographical Sciences, 17(3): 327-338. doi: 10.1007/s11442-007-0327-z
[24]	Xu J H, Chen Y N, Lu F et al., 2011. The Nonlinear trend of runoff and its response to climate change in the Aksu River, western China. International Journal of Climatology, 31(5): 687-695. doi: 10.1002/joc.2110
[25]	Xu L, Zhou H, Liang C et al., 2010. Spatial and temporal variability of annual and seasonal precipitation over the desert region of China during 1951-2005. Hydrol Process, 24(20): 2947-2959. doi: 10.1002/hyp.7708
[26]	Xu Z X, Chen Y N, Li J Y, 2004. Impact of climate change on water resources in the Tarim River Basin. Water Resources Management, 18(5): 439-458. doi: 10.1023/b:warm.00000 49142.95583.98
[27]	Xu Z X, Liu Z F, Fu G B et al., 2010. Trends of major hydroclimatic variables in the Tarim River basin during the past 50 years. Journal of Arid Environments, 74(2): 256-267. doi: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2009.08.014
[28]	Yang Y H, Chen Y N, Li W H et al., 2010. Impacts of climatic change on river runoff in northern Xinjiang of China over last fifty years. Chinese Geographical Science, 20(3): 193-201. doi: 10.1007/s11769-010-0193-y
[29]	Yao T D, Wang Y Q, Liu S Y et al., 2004. Recent glacial retreat in High Asia in China and its impact on water resource in Northwest China. Science in China Series D-Earth Sciences, 47(12): 1065-1075. doi: 10.1360/03yd0256
[30]	Ye Baisheng, Ding Yongjian, Liu Chaohai, 2001. Response of valley glacier in various size and their runoff to climate change. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 23(2): 103-110. (in Chinese)
[31]	Ye M, Xu H L, Song Y D, 2006. The utilization of water resources and its variation tendency in Tarim River Basin. Chinese Science Bulletin, 51(supp. 1): 16-24. doi: 10.1007/s11434-006-8203-2
[32]	Zhao F F, Xu Z X, Huang J X et al., 2008. Monotonic trend and abrupt changes for major climate variables in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River Basin. Hydrological Processes, 22(23): 4587-4599. doi: 10.1002/hyp.7063
[33]	Zhou L C, 1999. Water Resources of Runoff in Xinjiang. Xinjiang: Xinjiang Publishing House of Science and Technology, 333-420.

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通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com

1.
沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院沈阳 110142

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Runoff Responses to Climate Change in Arid Region of Northwestern China During 1960-2010

1. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ürümqi 830011, China;

2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Funds: Under the auspices of Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (No. 2010CB951003)

Corresponding author: CHEN Yaning. E-mail: chenyn@ms.xjb.ac.cn

Received Date: 2012-04-06

Rev Recd Date: 2012-08-03

Publish Date: 2013-05-29

Key words:

Abstract: Based on runoff, air temperature, and precipitation data from 1960 to 2010, the effects of climate change on water resources in the arid region of the northwestern China were investigated. The long-term trends of hydroclimatic variables were studied by using both Mann-Kendall test and distributed-free cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart test. Results indicate that the mean annual air temperature increases significantly from 1960 to 2010. The annual precipitation exhibits an increasing trend, especially in the south slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the North Uygur Autonomous Region of Xinjiang in the study period. Step changes occur in 1988 in the mean annual air temperature time series and in 1991 in the precipitation time series. The runoff in different basins shows different trends, i.e., significantly increasing in the Kaidu River, the Aksu River and the Shule River, and decreasing in the Shiyang River. Correlation analysis reveals that the runoff in the North Xinjiang (i.e., the Weigan River, the Heihe River, and the Shiyang River) has a strong positive relationship with rainfall, while that in the south slope of the Tianshan Mountains, the middle section of the north slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the Shule River has a strong positive relationship with air temperature. The trends of runoff have strong negative correlations with glacier coverage and the proportion of glacier water in runoff. From the late 1980s, the climate has become warm and wet in the arid region of the northwestern China. The change in runoff is interacted with air temperature, precipitation and glacier coverage. The results show that streamflow in the arid region of the northwestern China is sensitive to climate change, which can be used as a reference for regional water resource assessment and management.

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Reference (33)

[1]	Alexandersson H, 1986. A homogeneity test applied to precipitation data. Journal of Climatology, 6(6): 661-675.
[2]	Boehmer K, Memon A, Mitchell B, 2000. Towards sustainable water management in Southeast Asia experiences from Indonesia and Malaysia. Water International, 25(3): 356-377.
[3]	Buishand T A, 1982. Some methods for testing the homogeneity of rainfall records. Journal of Hydrology, 58(1-2): 11-27. doi: 10.1016/0022-1694(82)90066-X
[4]	Chen Y N, Li W H, Xu C C et al., 2007. Effects of climate change on water resources in Tarim River Basin, Northwest China. Journal of Environmental Sciences-China, 19(4): 488-493. doi: 10.1016/S1001-0742(07)60082-5
[5]	Chiew F H S, McMahon T A, 1993. Detection of trend or change in annual flow of Australian rivers. International Journal of Climatology 13(6): 643-653. doi: 10.1002/joc.3370130605
[6]	Cunderlik J M, Simonovic S P, 2005. Hydrological extremes in a southwestern Ontario river basin under future climate conditions. Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques, 50(4): 631-654. doi: 10.1623/hysj.2005.50.4. 631
[7]	Feng Q, Endo K N, Cheng G D, 2001. Towards sustainable development of the environmentally degraded arid rivers of China—A case study from Tarim River. Environmental Geology, 41(1-2): 229-238.
[8]	Gupta P K, Panigrahy S, Parihar J S, 2011. Impact of climate change on runoff of the major river basins of India using global circulation model (HadCM3) projected data. Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing, 39(3): 337-344. doi: 10.1007/s12524-011-0101-7
[9]	Hao X M, Chen Y N, Xu C C et al., 2008. Impacts of climate change and human activities on the surface runoff in the Tarim River basin over the last fifty years. Water Resources Management, 22(9): 1159-1171. doi: 10.1007/s11269-007-9218-4
[10]	Kendall M G, 1975. Rank-Correlation Measures. London: Charles Griffin, 202.
[11]	Labat D, Godderis Y, Probst J L et al., 2004. Evidence for global runoff increase related to climate warming. Advances in Water Resources, 27(6): 631-642. doi: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2004.02. 020
[12]	Li W H, Chen Y N, Hao X M et al., 2007. Responses of streamflow to climate change in the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang: A case study of the Toutun River Basin. Science in China Series D-Earth Sciences, 50(supp. 1): 42-48. doi: 10.1007/s11430-007-5018-1
[13]	Li Z L, Xu Z X, Li J Y et al., 2008. Shift trend and step changes for runoff time series in the Shiyang River Basin, Northwest China. Hydrological Processes, 22(23): 4639-4646. doi: 10.1002/hyp.7127
[14]	Li Zhongqin, Li Kaiming, Wang Lin, 2010. Study on recent glacier changes and their impact on water resources in Xinjiang, northwestern China. Quaternary Sciences, 30(1): 96-106. (in Chinese)
[15]	Liu C, Chen Y, Xu Z, 2010. Eco-hydrology and sustainable development in the arid regions of China Preface. Hydrological Processes, 24(2): 127-128. doi: 10.1002/hyp.7481
[16]	Mann H B, 1945. Non-parametric tests against trend. Econo-metrica, 13(3): 245-259.
[17]	McGilchrist C A, Woodyer K D, 1975. Note on a Distribution-free CUSUM Technique. Technometrics, 17(3): 321-325.
[18]	Peterson T C, Easterling D R, Karl T R et al., 1998. Homogeneity adjustments of in situ atmospheric climate data: A review. International Journal of Climatology, 18(13): 1493-1517.
[19]	Probst J L, Tardy Y, 1987. Long-range streamflow and world continental runoff fluctuations since the beginning of this century. Journal of Hydrology, 94(3-4): 289-311.
[20]	Sun H L, Chen Y N, Li W H et al., 2010. Variation and abrupt change of climate in Ili River Basin, Xinjiang. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 20(5): 652-666. doi: 10.1007/s11442-010-0802-9
[21]	Tao H T H, Gemmer M, Bai Y G et al., 2011. Trends of streamflow in the Tarim River Basin during the past 50 years: Human impact or climate change? Journal of Hydrology, 400(1-2): 1-9. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.01.016
[22]	Teng J, Chew F H S, Vaze J et al., 2012. Estimation of climate change impact on mean annual runoff across continental Australia using Budyko and Fu equations and hydrological models. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 13(3): 1094-1106. doi: 10.1175/jhm-d-11-097.1
[23]	Wang J, Meng J, 2007. Research on runoff variations based on wavelet analysis and wavelet neural network model: A case study of the Heihe River Drainage Basin (1944-2005). Journal of Geographical Sciences, 17(3): 327-338. doi: 10.1007/s11442-007-0327-z
[24]	Xu J H, Chen Y N, Lu F et al., 2011. The Nonlinear trend of runoff and its response to climate change in the Aksu River, western China. International Journal of Climatology, 31(5): 687-695. doi: 10.1002/joc.2110
[25]	Xu L, Zhou H, Liang C et al., 2010. Spatial and temporal variability of annual and seasonal precipitation over the desert region of China during 1951-2005. Hydrol Process, 24(20): 2947-2959. doi: 10.1002/hyp.7708
[26]	Xu Z X, Chen Y N, Li J Y, 2004. Impact of climate change on water resources in the Tarim River Basin. Water Resources Management, 18(5): 439-458. doi: 10.1023/b:warm.00000 49142.95583.98
[27]	Xu Z X, Liu Z F, Fu G B et al., 2010. Trends of major hydroclimatic variables in the Tarim River basin during the past 50 years. Journal of Arid Environments, 74(2): 256-267. doi: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2009.08.014
[28]	Yang Y H, Chen Y N, Li W H et al., 2010. Impacts of climatic change on river runoff in northern Xinjiang of China over last fifty years. Chinese Geographical Science, 20(3): 193-201. doi: 10.1007/s11769-010-0193-y
[29]	Yao T D, Wang Y Q, Liu S Y et al., 2004. Recent glacial retreat in High Asia in China and its impact on water resource in Northwest China. Science in China Series D-Earth Sciences, 47(12): 1065-1075. doi: 10.1360/03yd0256
[30]	Ye Baisheng, Ding Yongjian, Liu Chaohai, 2001. Response of valley glacier in various size and their runoff to climate change. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 23(2): 103-110. (in Chinese)
[31]	Ye M, Xu H L, Song Y D, 2006. The utilization of water resources and its variation tendency in Tarim River Basin. Chinese Science Bulletin, 51(supp. 1): 16-24. doi: 10.1007/s11434-006-8203-2
[32]	Zhao F F, Xu Z X, Huang J X et al., 2008. Monotonic trend and abrupt changes for major climate variables in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River Basin. Hydrological Processes, 22(23): 4587-4599. doi: 10.1002/hyp.7063
[33]	Zhou L C, 1999. Water Resources of Runoff in Xinjiang. Xinjiang: Xinjiang Publishing House of Science and Technology, 333-420.

Runoff Responses to Climate Change in Arid Region of Northwestern China During 1960-2010

doi: 10.1007/s11769-013-0605-x

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References

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通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com

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