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To meet the needs of national economic construction and environmental protection, Land Resources Team of Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences carried out urban expansion of China based on Remote Sensing (RS) and GIS technology for 40 yr. At present, 75 typical cities have been monitored, including 4 municipalities, 28 provincial capitals, 2 special administrative regions, and 41 prefecture-level cities and below (named ‘other cities’ thereafter, including 5 municipalities with Independent Planning Status, i.e., Dalian, Qingdao, Ningbo, Xiamen and Shenzhen) (Fig. 1). These 75 cities were chosen as sample cities in this study by fully considering their administrative levels, urban functions, urbanization levels, spatial distributions, social-economic levels, population sizes, and available multi-source remotely sensed imagery. By 2020, except Hong Kong, Macao and Taipei, total urban population in other 73 monitored cities were 2.187 × 108, accounting for 50.08% of that in China. In terms of geographical zoning, administrative classification standard and population size dividing criterion, these 75 cities distributed in eight regions (Gu et al., 2017), and were classified into four administrative levels (municipalities, special administrative regions, provincial capitals, other cities) and five population-size levels (super mega, mega, large, medium, and small cities) on the basis of urban population in 2019 (Fig. 1).
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More than 1700 scenes of multi-source remote sensing imageries with the spatial resolution ranging from 19.5 m to 80.0 m, were adopted to extract urban expansion information. These data consist of 151, 849, 557, 67 and 129 scenes of Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS), Thematic Mapper (TM) or Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Operational Land Imager (OLI), China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite (CBERS) Charge-coupled Device (CCD), and Environmental Satellite (HJ–1) CCD imagery, respectively. Due to the limitation of remotely sensed imagery acquisition, the monitoring time of the 75 sample cities was not uniform in the 1970s. Urban expansion in the initial stage was very slowly. Therefore, different starting times for the monitoring in the 1970s have a few influences on the follow-up analysis. By using visual-interpretation method (Zhang et al., 2014), totally 1732 phases of urban lands actualities and 1657 phases of influences of urban expansion on local land use were completed (Table 1).
Table 1. Monitoring periods and frequencies of 75 monitored cities in China
Cities Period Frequency Cities Period Frequency Cities Period Frequency Beijing 1973–2020 29 Harbin 1976–2020 20 Nanning 1973–2020 21 Shanghai 1975–2020 20 Qiqihar 1976–2020 22 Beihai 1973–2020 20 Tianjin 1978–2020 22 Nanjing 1979–2020 20 Fangchenggang 1973–2020 22 Chongqing 1978–2020 21 Wuxi 1973–2020 25 Haikou 1973–2020 19 Shijiazhuang 1979–2020 20 Xuzhou 1973–2020 27 Chengdu 1975–2020 21 Tangshan 1976–2020 22 Hangzhou 1976–2020 22 Nanchong 1977–2020 22 Qinhuangdao 1973–2020 33 Ningbo 1974–2020 22 Guiyang 1973–2020 25 Handan 1973–2020 28 Hefei 1973–2020 22 Kunming 1974–2020 19 Xingtai 1975–2020 26 Bengbu 1975–2020 23 Lijiang 1974–2020 18 Baoding 1973–2020 28 Fuzhou 1973–2020 20 Lhasa 1976–2020 20 Zhangjiakou 1975–2020 22 Xiamen 1973–2020 21 Shigatse 1973–2020 20 Chengde 1975–2020 22 Quanzhou 1973–2020 22 Xi’an 1973–2020 22 Cangzhou 1976–2020 29 Nanchang 1976–2020 20 Yan’an 1974–2020 27 Langfang 1976–2020 26 Jinan 1979–2020 20 Lanzhou 1978–2020 21 Hengshui 1975–2020 34 Qingdao 1973–2020 21 Wuwei 1973–2020 22 Taiyuan 1977–2020 20 Zaozhuang 1974–2020 23 Xining 1977–2020 22 Datong 1977–2020 22 Zhengzhou 1976–2020 23 Yinchuan 1978–2020 20 Hohhot 1976–2020 19 Wuhan 1978–2020 22 Zhongwei 1973–2020 27 Baotou 1977–2020 24 Yichang 1973–2020 23 Urumqi 1975–2020 16 Chifeng 1975–2020 21 Changsha 1973–2020 20 Karamay 1975–2020 19 Shenyang 1977–2020 24 Xiangtan 1973–2020 22 Kashgar 1972–2020 19 Dalian 1975–2020 21 Hengyang 1973–2020 21 Khorgos 1975–2020 18 Fuxin 1975–2020 23 Guangzhou 1977–2020 21 Taipei 1972–2020 17 Changchun 1976–2020 19 Shenzhen 1973–2020 23 Hong Kong 1973–2020 18 Jilin 1979–2020 20 Zhuhai 1973–2020 22 Macao 1973–2020 20 This monitoring has the advantage of high-frequency and long-term, and its contents include urban actualities in every monitored time nodes and influences of urban expansion on local land use in all monitored periods. Taking Beijing for example, Figs. 2a and 2b exhibit urban expansion process and its influences on cultivated lands of Beijing in the past five decades.
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Annual expansion area per city (AEAC) was employed to describe the process of urban expansion in detail. This index has advantages in eliminating the influences of city number, different time nodes of monitoring and the scale of urban lands on urban expansion process (Zhang et al., 2014), and is described as below:
$$AEAC = \dfrac{{\displaystyle\sum\limits_{i = 1}^N {\frac{{U{A_{i(t + n)}} - U{A_{i(t)}}}}{n}} }}{N}$$ where AEAC indicates the annual expansion area per city. UAi(t+n) and UAi(t) are the urban areas of city i at time t+n and t. n represents the time interval; and N is the city number.
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To describe urban dynamic patterns of China systematically and scientifically, urban land density (ULD) index (Jiao, 2015) was adopted and improved in this study. Three basic principles must be followed when constructing concentric rings covering urban lands. First, all concentric rings started from the city center. Second, for polycentric cities, multiple centers were considered when build up concentric rings. Third, considering the scale of urban lands from aspects of regional distributions, administrative levels, and population sizes, rings with 500 m equidistance should cover all urban lands of one city in different monitoring phases. ULD is defined as follows:
$$ULD = \dfrac{{\mathop {{A_{{\rm{urban}}}}}\nolimits_{} }}{{\mathop {{A_{{\rm{buildable}}}}}\nolimits_{} }}\times 100{\text{%}}$$ where Aurban and Abuildable are areas of urban lands and the total land areas excluding water bodies and sea areas in concentric rings. Furthermore, tidal flats and bottomlands belonging to water bodies are easily converted into urban lands (Zhang et al., 2014). Therefore, these two kinds of water bodies are considered when calculating buildable lands.
According to empirical studies, the ULD always reduced from the city center to the urban fringe with an inverse ‘S-shape’. In this study, this attenuation formula was adopted to calculate the corresponding parameter to describe the pattern of urban lands in China from the macro aspect.
$$f(r) = \frac{{1 - c}}{{1 + \mathop e\nolimits^{\alpha \left(\frac{{2r}}{d} - 1\right)} }} + c$$ where f indicates the ULD; r is the distance to the city center; c, d, and α are parameters which can be calculated by fitting f and r with the formula above. Among these three parameters, c and d are the background value of the ULD in the hinterland of a city, and the approximate boundary between the urban fringe and the urban hinterland, respectively. Parameter α can depict patterns of urban lands. The higher the parameter α is, the more compact pattern of urban lands in one city is.
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In the past five decades, urban lands in China expanded dramatically and presented obvious temporal differences. Meanwhile, urban expansion differences were embodied directly from the aspects of regional distributions, administrative levels, and population sizes. By recognizing these differences fully and scientifically, we can not only assess the execution of national policies about urban development effectively to a certain extent but also draw up reasonable urban development plans after 2020.
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Urban expansion in China is universal and distinct (Fig. 3). In the 1970s, urban lands in 75 monitored cities only amounted to 3606.26 km2 with an average of less than 50 km2 per city. The scales of urban lands were relatively small in the early stage of monitoring; specifically, the scales of urban lands in all monitored cities were less than 200 km2. In the next 50 yr, Chinese cities developed vigorously, and the scales of urban lands increased significantly. By 2020, urban lands in 75 cities reached 30 521.13 km2 with an average of 406.95 km2 per city, increasing by 7.46 times of that in the 1970s; and urban lands in more than half of the monitored cities were larger than 200 km2, exceeding the maximum scale of cities in the 1970s. Urban expansion in these 75 cities was distinctively different. As a typical city of the ‘Reform and Opening-up Policy’ and the fastest growing city in China, urban expansion in Shenzhen witnessed the process of China becoming rich and strong. Remote-sensing monitoring showed that Shenzhen was the city with the most significant change among the 75 monitored cities. In the 1970s, it was only a small fishing-town with only 6.87 km2 of urban lands, but its urban lands expanded to 1139.83 km2 in 2020, which was 165.91 times of the initial monitoring period. Taipei expanded the most slightly because of historical reasons, with urban lands increasing by only 0.62 times of that in the initial period.
Figure 3. Urban expansion of 75 monitored cities in China and its influences on local land use during the 1970s–2020
Since the 1970s, urban expansion in China was persistent, periodic, and fluctuating (Fig. 4). It presented an increase trend and underwent one slow and stable expansion stage before 1987, one accelerating expansion stage during 1987–2000, and one high-speed fluctuating expansion stage after 2000, which was consistent with the implementation of major policies and the development of national strategies. In detail, urban expansion in China exhibited various characteristics during different Five-Year Plans for national economic and social development (named ‘Five-Year Plan’ thereafter). Before 1980, China was in the early stage of the ‘Reform and Opening-up Policy’, and its urban expansion was slow with an AEAC of only 1.44 km2. In the next 40 years, China underwent eight Five-Year Plans (i.e., the 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th, and 13th Five-Year Plans in 1981–1985, 1986–1990, 1991–1995, 1996–2000, 2001–2005, 2006–2010, 2011–2015, and 2016–2020, respectively. Before the 13th Five-Year Plan, urban lands started to expand rapidly, but China’s economic system recently transformed from the planned system to the market system, and the focus of urban expansion mostly took place in the eastern coastal areas. Therefore, the speed of its urban expansion was much slower than that after 2000. After 2000, China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO), integrated into the globalized market system rapidly, and successively implemented strategic plans for the development of the western region, the revitalization of the northeastern region, and the rise of the central region. China’s urban expansion continued at a high speed and presented a fluctuating acceleration. Moreover, 74.42% of increased urban lands in the past five decades emerged after 2000. With the in-depth implementation of ‘New-type Urbanization’ and ‘Urban-rural Integration Plan’, urban expansion and its spatial layout optimization became an inevitable trend. Therefore, the speed of urban expansion in China slowed down after entering the 13th Five-Year Plan and is expected to reduce successively.
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Since the implementation of the ‘Reform and Opening-up Policy’, Chinese cities developed rapidly. Due to the obvious differences of natural conditions and imbalanced social-economic development levels, urban expansion presented various characteristics among different regions. The urban expansion process is a direct reflection of the implementation of national strategies. By describing the urban expansion of different regions, we can also evaluate the effects of the executions of various regional development strategies to a certain extent. Overall, urban expansion in East China was the fastest with an average AEAC of 9.76 km2, followed by South China (8.34 km2), Central China (7.53 km2), Southwest China (6.32 km2), Northeast China (5.73 km2), North China (5.34 km2), Northwest China (3.51 km2), and the Hongkong-Macao-Taipei region (named ‘HMT’ region thereafter) (1.98 km2) (Fig. 5). The speeds of urban expansion in the first four regions were higher than the national average, and more slowly than the national level in the four other regions.
Figure 5. Spatial differences of urban expansion in China, the 1970s–2020. HMT is Hong Kong-Macao-Taipei region
As the most dynamic region of Chinese economy and the first region opening-up to the outside world, East China has remarkable innate advantages in urban expansion, and its urban expansion was the most rapid and entered the high-speed stage the earliest. Since the 1970s, the urban lands of East China have expanded by 13.23 times, experiencing the low-speed and stable expansion stages before 1987, the rapid-expansion stage in 1987–2000, and the high-speed fluctuation stage after 2000. Since 2000, the regional development strategies of China have gradually shifted from giving priority to the development of the eastern coastal areas to the coordinated development of the whole country. In 2000–2005, the advantage of urban expansion in East China was still evident. However, the urban expansion speed in this region fluctuated and declined in the following 15 yr and was even caught up with by other regions.
With the second fastest speed of urban expansion among eight regions, urban lands in South China expanded by 15.49 times in the past 50 yr. By establishing the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone, the open degree of South China was strengthened. Furthermore, the strategy of ‘Developing the Eastern Coastal Areas First’ greatly stimulated the rapid development of this region and resulted in its high-speed expansion that appeared as early as the late 1980s, and its subsequent expansion process was basically synchronized with that of East China. However, due to its small per capita land areas and limited space for expanding, and the efficient implementation of the new urbanization and the urban-rural integration, the gap of urban expansion in South China with the seven other regions narrowed down gradually.
Central China was deeply affected by the ‘Rise of Central China’ strategy. On December 26, 2016, ‘To promote the rise of Central China in the 13th Five-Year Plan’ was issued by the National Development and Reform Commission. The urban expansion process of this region was further stimulated by strengthening the status of provincial capitals, such as Changsha, and supporting the development of Wuhan and Zhengzhou as national central cities. Since the 1970s, urban lands in Central China have expanded by 6.52 times. Furthermore, the implementation of the strategy of ‘Rise of Central China’ also effectively reduced the imbalance of urban development between the east and central regions. Even after 2010, the speed of urban expansion in Central China began to significantly overtake that in North China, East China, and South China.
The implementation of the ‘Western Development’ strategy was the main driving force for the growth of urban lands in Southwest China. From the 1970s to 2020, urban lands in this region expanded by 11.25 times with its average speed higher than the national level. Before 2008, the speed of urban expansion in this region was lower than the national average, whereas fluctuated frequently and became higher than the national average in the following 10 yr. Therefore, the execution of the ‘Western Development’ strategy was effective and can reduce the imbalance of urban development between the east and the west to a certain degree.
Though Northeast China had a good economic basis in the 1970s, its urban expansion was not the most obvious on the whole. From the 1970s to 2020, urban lands in this region increased by 2033.92 km2, 4.22 times of that in the early stage of monitoring; and experienced one continuous acceleration stage in the 1970s, a low-speed and steady expansion stage from the 1980s to the early and middle 1990s, a rapid acceleration stage in the late 1990s, an acceleration stage in the first decade of the 21st century, and a deceleration stage in the first decade of the 21st century. On September 29, 2003, the ‘Northeast Revitalization Strategy’ was officially initiated. However, urban development responding to the implementation of this strategy was not intuitive and significant. The expansion speed of urban lands in this region was lower than the national level for most of the time.
Benefiting from the implementation of ‘developing the eastern coastal areas first’ strategy, urban lands in North China increased by 5.72 times in the past five decades, and its urban expansion process was basically consistent with the national trend. Note that the ‘Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Coordinated Development’ strategy was executed effectively. After 2010, urban expansion fluctuated significantly, and the focus of urban development transformed from the simple urban spatial expansion to the urban coordinated development.
With scarce precipitation, arid climate, sparse population, and an economic structure dominated by resource-based industry and traditional agriculture, urban expansion in Northwest China has insufficient inherent geographical advantages. Therefore, in the early stage of monitoring, the scales of urban lands in this region were generally small, reaching only 259.13 km2. Compared with other regions, the speed of urban expansion in this region was the second slowest, and the time of entering the rapid expansion stage was relatively late. Its speed of urban expansion was generally lower than the national average. Before 2005, the gap of its urban expansion speed with the national average increased continuously. Since then, the gap narrowed down and even surpassed the national average in 2013. This result was directly related to the in-depth implementation of the ‘Western Development’ strategy and the extensive construction of the New Silk Road. However, in the next seven years, the speed of urban expansion in this region presented a decreasing trend, which was correlated to the implementation of the ‘New-type Urbanization’ and ‘Optimizing the Spatial Pattern of Land’ strategies.
The urbanization levels of the HMT region were higher than those of the seven other regions in the 1970s because of historical reasons. However, resulting from geographical conditions, urban lands in this region lacked abundant space for expansion, and their scales were generally small. In the 1970s, only urban lands measuring 234.48 km2 existed, and the increase of this value was not evident. By 2020, urban lands expanded to 526.48 km2, which was 2.25 times of that in the initial monitoring period. Overall, the speed of urban expansion in the HMT region presented a decreasing trend, which was obviously different from other regions.
Apart from regional differences, urban expansion was also unbalanced from the aspects of administrative levels and population sizes. Unlike regional differences, urban expansion processes are highly co-related to urban administrative levels and population sizes. Though urbanization processes of Hong Kong and Macao proceeded faster than those of other 73 cities before the 1970s, space for their urban expansion was limited on the whole. Therefore, urban lands in these two cities expanded slowly in the past five decades, with an average AEAC of only 2.00 km2. In the past five decades, further attention was paid to the internal construction and intensive land use in Hong Kong and Macao. Among the other 73 cities, obvious urban expansion with high speed and early acceleration stage always emerged in cities with high administrative levels (municipalities > provincial capitals > other cities) and huge population sizes. From the aspect of administrative level, urban lands in municipalities expanded the fastest with an average AEAC of 19.92 km2 and entered the acceleration-expanding stage as early as the 1980s, followed by provincial capitals and other cities (Fig. 6a). In provincial capitals, their urban lands grew slower than those in municipalities, and their acceleration stage of urban expansion appeared almost five years later those in municipalities. Urban lands in other cities expanded the most slowly with an average AEAC of only 3.37 km2 and entered the acceleration stage after 2000. Among the five population-sized cities, super megacities played a leading role in Chinese urban expansion, with evidently earlier acceleration stage than the four other types of cities, followed by megacities, large cities, medium cities, and small cities (Fig. 6b). According to urban expansion speed and expansion area per city, the ranks of five population-sized cities are super megacities, megacities, large cities, medium cities, and small cities in descending order. Before the Chinese economic transformation in the 1990s, urban lands in large, medium, and small cities expanded synchronously, with a relatively slow and stable expansion speed. In the next two decades, they all entered the acceleration-expanding stage successively and presented different expansion characteristics. Medium and large cities entered the acceleration-expansion stage 10 yr earlier than small cities. Urban expansion in super megacities and megacities was basically consistent. Note that the urban expansion speeds in these two types of cities decreased in a fluctuating manner after 2005, and the decrease degree in the former was larger than in the latter, which was the direct reflection of national policies’ effective execution.
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By analyzing the urban expansion patterns of China, we can assess the rationality of urban expansion and reveal the dynamics of urban expansion patterns.
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In general, the pattern of urban lands in China is relatively extensive, with the average ULD in concentric rings of 26.21% in 2020. The distribution of Chinese ULD was imbalanced with a variance of 0.008. Among these 75 cities, ULDs in 48% of cities were higher than the national average, of which Beihai had the highest value of 50.77%; and ULDs in more than half of monitored cities were lower than the nation level, of which Yan’an had the lowest ULD of only 6.58% (Fig. 7).
Urban expansion of China is synchronous with the implementation of national strategies and policies. To present the temporal variations of ULDs, we selected the 1970s, 1987, 1996, 2000, 2010, and 2020 as the important time points by fully considering the development stages of China and the balance of the time span division simultaneously (Fig. 8a). In the past 50 yr, the ULD of China decreased with the distance from the city center, which decreased slowly at the beginning, dropped down quickly, and then decreased slowly again (Fig. 8b). Before 2000, the urban expansion of China mainly occurred within 10 km from the city center. In the next 20 years, increased urban lands mainly emerged within 20 km. With the process of urban expansion, the attenuation trend of ULDs became more and more moderately from the 1970s to 2020, which indicated that newly-expanded urban lands also appeared in an infilling-expansion way, apart from the edge-expansion and leap-frog ways. Furthermore, some distinct bumps emerged in 1996, 2000, and 2010, describing the dynamics of urban expansion patterns with obvious polycentric urban patterns after the 1990s (Fig. 8b).
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Since the 1970s, the ULD has presented an increase trend in general and changed dramatically in different periods (Fig. 8a). Before 1987, urban lands always expanded on the basis of the original outline of urban lands or along the main traffic lines. Moreover, the concentric rings covering urban lands increased from 27 to 31. Therefore, the ULD in this period increased from 21.81% in the 1970s to 23.55% in 1987. After 1987, especially after the early 1990s, China’s real estate industry developed rapidly, which promoted the urban expansion process and resulted to the rapid growth of urban lands with an increase of 2769.62 km2. However, the concentric rings also increased quickly from 31 to 60, resulting in the ULD decreasing to 22.59% in 1996 unexpectedly. In the next 20 years, the social-economic level was enhanced rapidly, and urban expansion entered the high-speed stage with an amazing increase of 16 675.36 km2, leading to the increase of ULD directly. The dynamics of ULDs in this period fully confirmed the decisive role of national socioeconomic level on urban development. After 1996, the ULD underwent two rapid increase stages in 1996–2000 and in 2010–2020 and one relative stable stage in 2000–2010. During the period 1996–2000, the Chinese economy was severely affected by the Asian financial crisis. To ensure the stable development of China, multiple reform policies were executed by the State Council of China. Urban expansion still proceeded with the average speed in 1987–1996. Moreover, the concentric rings changed slightly. Finally, the ULD increased rapidly with an annual increase of 0.22%. From 2000 to 2010, China joined the WTO, which further stimulated the urban expansion. Meanwhile, national strategies, such as ‘Western Development’, ‘Northeast Revitalization’, and ‘Rise of Central China’ were executed successively, and urban expansion in different regions was stimulated. During the past 10 yr, a total of 8494.73 km2 newly-increased urban lands emerged, accounting for 37.91% of the increased urban lands in the past 50 yr. However, the concentric rings evidently increased, resulting from the uncontrolled urban expansion and the abuse of local land resources. Therefore, the increase rate of the ULD slowed down with an annual increase of only 0.08%. In the recent 10 yr, urban lands grew by 8180.63 km2, similar to that in 2000–2010. However, the concentric rings only slightly increased from 82 to 90. Thus, the ULD increased significantly from 24.22% in 2010 to 26.21% in 2020, which reflected the effects of the ‘New Urbanization’ implemented during this period.
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The attenuation of ULD in China has an inverse ‘S shape’ from the city center to the urban periphery (Fig. 8b). Parameter α characterizes the shape of the curve of the ULD, and a higher α means a more compact urban pattern. Cross-sectionally, the values of urban patterns in China present an inverted ‘V shape’ (Table 2). Before 1987, China was still in a planned economy, the real estate industry has not yet sprung out, and slight urban expansion emerged with a weak driving of profits. During this period, urban lands mostly spread outwards on the basis of the original urban outlines, and the urban pattern was relatively compact with α increasing from 1.080 in the 1970s to 1.192 in 1987. After the 1980s, with the deep implementation of the process of ‘Reform and Opening-up’, China’s economy and society entered a new stage of development, and the real estate industry became a new hotspot of investment in China, which strongly stimulated urban expansion. During 1987–1996, urban lands mostly adopted the edge-expansion and the leapfrog-expansion in the concentric rings. During this period, the urban pattern of China became increasingly dispersed with α decreasing to 1.106 in 1996. In the next four years, although the acceleration of urban expansion was restrained due to the unprecedented crisis and challenges of the global socioeconomic development, newly-increased urban lands still emerged in the edge-expansion manner, leading to the successive reduction of α. After 2000, α decreased continuously and reached 0.859 in 2020, even smaller than the initial value in the 1970s, but the reducing rate of α was controlled. In the 14th Five-Plan of China, developing cities orderly, planning urban spatial structure rationally, and improving the efficiency of urban lands have become the important goals of Chinese land planning. Therefore, patterns of urban lands in China are expected to become compact with α stopping from declining or even rebounding.
Table 2. Pattern evolutions of urban lands in China and its differences among eight regions, four administrative levels and five population sizes
Difference Region Parameter 1973 1987 1996 2000 2010 2020 Difference Region Parameter 1973 1987 1996 2000 2010 2020 China average α 1.080 1.192 1.106 1.048 1.001 0.859 Administrative differences Municipalities α 1.229 1.826 1.507 1.466 1.566 1.845 Adjusted R2 0.982 0.987 0.951 0.951 0.972 0.985 Adjusted R2 0.995 0.990 0.985 0.988 0.974 0.982 Spatial differences Northeast China α 2.276 2.371 2.134 1.756 1.173 1.443 Special administrative regions α 0.682 0.352 0.831 0.578 0.681 0.699 Adjusted R2 0.995 0.991 0.987 0.993 0.983 0.989 Adjusted R2 0.954 0.933 0.947 0.956 0.965 0.973 The HTM region α 0.748 0.677 0.983 0.940 1.053 1.075 Provincial capitals α 1.339 1.668 1.641 1.535 1.453 1.135 Adjusted R2 0.973 0.985 0.980 0.984 0.986 0.988 Adjusted R2 0.991 0.995 0.986 0.988 0.996 0.992 North China α 2.002 1.796 1.580 1.594 1.451 1.723 Other cities α 1.479 1.575 1.737 1.736 1.204 0.734 Adjusted R2 0.965 0.968 0.927 0.932 0.970 0.967 Adjusted R2 0.986 0.981 0.876 0.742 0.913 0.912 East China α 1.068 1.527 1.602 1.555 1.319 1.197 Population differences Super megacities α 1.056 1.403 0.998 1.062 1.457 1.328 Adjusted R2 0.974 0.987 0.955 0.969 0.962 0.980 Adjusted R2 0.987 0.992 0.985 0.978 0.973 0.987 South China α 0.415 0.713 0.066 0.120 0.338 0.198 Megacities α 1.051 0.579 0.541 0.595 0.829 0.603 Adjusted R2 0.879 0.893 0.840 0.840 0.843 0.905 Adjusted R2 0.990 0.978 0.959 0.978 0.983 0.973 Central China α 0.517 0.759 1.055 1.115 1.058 0.798 Large cities α 1.460 1.802 1.978 1.808 1.487 1.261 Adjusted R2 0.963 0.970 0.975 0.989 0.985 0.987 Adjusted R2 0.988 0.993 0.998 0.996 0.995 0.995 Northwest China α 0.976 1.089 1.263 0.841 0.951 1.053 Medium cities α 1.915 1.684 2.041 2.126 1.497 1.365 Adjusted R2 0.925 0.927 0.923 0.878 0.945 0.956 Adjusted R2 0.986 0.997 0.995 0.989 0.991 0.985 Southwest China α 0.956 1.532 1.300 1.297 1.250 0.764 Small cties α 2.101 2.199 1.615 1.589 1.351 1.416 Adjusted R2 0.969 0.986 0.982 0.978 0.987 0.945 Adjusted R2 0.985 0.963 0.969 0.982 0.968 0.979 Notes: Parameter α and Adjusted R2 are employed to describe the pattern of urban lands and the fitted effect. The higher of these two parameters, the more compact pattern of urban lands and the better of the fitted effect. HMT is Hong Kong-Macao-Taipei region
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Abstract: Based on Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information System (GIS) technology, urban expansion of 75 cities in China from the 1970s to 2020 was reconstructed by visual-interpretation method, which described the growing process of urban lands and its influences on local land use structures synchronously. By employing annual expansion area per city and urban expansion density, spatial-temporal characteristics and macro patterns of urban expansion were analyzed from the aspects of regional-distributions, administrative-levels and population-sizes comprehensively. Results indicate that: 1) urban expansion in China was universal, distinct, persistent, periodic and fluctuating. In the past five decades, urban lands of 75 monitored cities in China expanded dramatically from 3606.26 km2 to 30 521.13 km2. 2) Though urban expansion presented significant differences from the aspects of regional distribution, administrative levels, and population sizes, it exhibited a deceleration trend in the 13th Five-Year Plan among all kinds of cities. 3) Cultivated lands were the first land resource for urban expansion, and 55.17% of newly-expanded urban lands appeared by encroaching this land use type. China’s urban expansion has caused sustained pressure on cultivated land protection, especially in super megacities, and the contradiction between urban expansion and cultivated land protection will always exist. 4) The compactness of urban lands in China increased before 1987 and reduced in the next three decades, which was consistent with the implementation of major policies and the deployment of national strategies, and is expected to become compact with a stopping declining or even rebounding after the 13th Five-Year Plan.
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Key words:
- urban expansion /
- pattern /
- regional distribution /
- administrative level /
- population sizes /
- Remote Sensing (RS) /
- China
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Table 1. Monitoring periods and frequencies of 75 monitored cities in China
Cities Period Frequency Cities Period Frequency Cities Period Frequency Beijing 1973–2020 29 Harbin 1976–2020 20 Nanning 1973–2020 21 Shanghai 1975–2020 20 Qiqihar 1976–2020 22 Beihai 1973–2020 20 Tianjin 1978–2020 22 Nanjing 1979–2020 20 Fangchenggang 1973–2020 22 Chongqing 1978–2020 21 Wuxi 1973–2020 25 Haikou 1973–2020 19 Shijiazhuang 1979–2020 20 Xuzhou 1973–2020 27 Chengdu 1975–2020 21 Tangshan 1976–2020 22 Hangzhou 1976–2020 22 Nanchong 1977–2020 22 Qinhuangdao 1973–2020 33 Ningbo 1974–2020 22 Guiyang 1973–2020 25 Handan 1973–2020 28 Hefei 1973–2020 22 Kunming 1974–2020 19 Xingtai 1975–2020 26 Bengbu 1975–2020 23 Lijiang 1974–2020 18 Baoding 1973–2020 28 Fuzhou 1973–2020 20 Lhasa 1976–2020 20 Zhangjiakou 1975–2020 22 Xiamen 1973–2020 21 Shigatse 1973–2020 20 Chengde 1975–2020 22 Quanzhou 1973–2020 22 Xi’an 1973–2020 22 Cangzhou 1976–2020 29 Nanchang 1976–2020 20 Yan’an 1974–2020 27 Langfang 1976–2020 26 Jinan 1979–2020 20 Lanzhou 1978–2020 21 Hengshui 1975–2020 34 Qingdao 1973–2020 21 Wuwei 1973–2020 22 Taiyuan 1977–2020 20 Zaozhuang 1974–2020 23 Xining 1977–2020 22 Datong 1977–2020 22 Zhengzhou 1976–2020 23 Yinchuan 1978–2020 20 Hohhot 1976–2020 19 Wuhan 1978–2020 22 Zhongwei 1973–2020 27 Baotou 1977–2020 24 Yichang 1973–2020 23 Urumqi 1975–2020 16 Chifeng 1975–2020 21 Changsha 1973–2020 20 Karamay 1975–2020 19 Shenyang 1977–2020 24 Xiangtan 1973–2020 22 Kashgar 1972–2020 19 Dalian 1975–2020 21 Hengyang 1973–2020 21 Khorgos 1975–2020 18 Fuxin 1975–2020 23 Guangzhou 1977–2020 21 Taipei 1972–2020 17 Changchun 1976–2020 19 Shenzhen 1973–2020 23 Hong Kong 1973–2020 18 Jilin 1979–2020 20 Zhuhai 1973–2020 22 Macao 1973–2020 20 Table 2. Pattern evolutions of urban lands in China and its differences among eight regions, four administrative levels and five population sizes
Difference Region Parameter 1973 1987 1996 2000 2010 2020 Difference Region Parameter 1973 1987 1996 2000 2010 2020 China average α 1.080 1.192 1.106 1.048 1.001 0.859 Administrative differences Municipalities α 1.229 1.826 1.507 1.466 1.566 1.845 Adjusted R2 0.982 0.987 0.951 0.951 0.972 0.985 Adjusted R2 0.995 0.990 0.985 0.988 0.974 0.982 Spatial differences Northeast China α 2.276 2.371 2.134 1.756 1.173 1.443 Special administrative regions α 0.682 0.352 0.831 0.578 0.681 0.699 Adjusted R2 0.995 0.991 0.987 0.993 0.983 0.989 Adjusted R2 0.954 0.933 0.947 0.956 0.965 0.973 The HTM region α 0.748 0.677 0.983 0.940 1.053 1.075 Provincial capitals α 1.339 1.668 1.641 1.535 1.453 1.135 Adjusted R2 0.973 0.985 0.980 0.984 0.986 0.988 Adjusted R2 0.991 0.995 0.986 0.988 0.996 0.992 North China α 2.002 1.796 1.580 1.594 1.451 1.723 Other cities α 1.479 1.575 1.737 1.736 1.204 0.734 Adjusted R2 0.965 0.968 0.927 0.932 0.970 0.967 Adjusted R2 0.986 0.981 0.876 0.742 0.913 0.912 East China α 1.068 1.527 1.602 1.555 1.319 1.197 Population differences Super megacities α 1.056 1.403 0.998 1.062 1.457 1.328 Adjusted R2 0.974 0.987 0.955 0.969 0.962 0.980 Adjusted R2 0.987 0.992 0.985 0.978 0.973 0.987 South China α 0.415 0.713 0.066 0.120 0.338 0.198 Megacities α 1.051 0.579 0.541 0.595 0.829 0.603 Adjusted R2 0.879 0.893 0.840 0.840 0.843 0.905 Adjusted R2 0.990 0.978 0.959 0.978 0.983 0.973 Central China α 0.517 0.759 1.055 1.115 1.058 0.798 Large cities α 1.460 1.802 1.978 1.808 1.487 1.261 Adjusted R2 0.963 0.970 0.975 0.989 0.985 0.987 Adjusted R2 0.988 0.993 0.998 0.996 0.995 0.995 Northwest China α 0.976 1.089 1.263 0.841 0.951 1.053 Medium cities α 1.915 1.684 2.041 2.126 1.497 1.365 Adjusted R2 0.925 0.927 0.923 0.878 0.945 0.956 Adjusted R2 0.986 0.997 0.995 0.989 0.991 0.985 Southwest China α 0.956 1.532 1.300 1.297 1.250 0.764 Small cties α 2.101 2.199 1.615 1.589 1.351 1.416 Adjusted R2 0.969 0.986 0.982 0.978 0.987 0.945 Adjusted R2 0.985 0.963 0.969 0.982 0.968 0.979 Notes: Parameter α and Adjusted R2 are employed to describe the pattern of urban lands and the fitted effect. The higher of these two parameters, the more compact pattern of urban lands and the better of the fitted effect. HMT is Hong Kong-Macao-Taipei region -
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