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Regional Clustering and Synchronization of Provincial Business Fluc-tuations in China

SONG Tao ZHENG Tingguo XIA Kai

SONG Tao, ZHENG Tingguo, XIA Kai. Regional Clustering and Synchronization of Provincial Business Fluc-tuations in China[J]. 中国地理科学, 2018, 28(4): 571-583. doi: 10.1007/s11769-018-0975-1
引用本文: SONG Tao, ZHENG Tingguo, XIA Kai. Regional Clustering and Synchronization of Provincial Business Fluc-tuations in China[J]. 中国地理科学, 2018, 28(4): 571-583. doi: 10.1007/s11769-018-0975-1
SONG Tao, ZHENG Tingguo, XIA Kai. Regional Clustering and Synchronization of Provincial Business Fluc-tuations in China[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 2018, 28(4): 571-583. doi: 10.1007/s11769-018-0975-1
Citation: SONG Tao, ZHENG Tingguo, XIA Kai. Regional Clustering and Synchronization of Provincial Business Fluc-tuations in China[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 2018, 28(4): 571-583. doi: 10.1007/s11769-018-0975-1

Regional Clustering and Synchronization of Provincial Business Fluc-tuations in China

doi: 10.1007/s11769-018-0975-1
基金项目: Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 71371160), the Program for Changjiang Youth Scholars (No. Q2016131), the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University (No. NCET-13-0509)
详细信息
    通讯作者:

    ZHENG Tingguo.E-mail address:zhengtg@gmail.com

Regional Clustering and Synchronization of Provincial Business Fluc-tuations in China

Funds: Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 71371160), the Program for Changjiang Youth Scholars (No. Q2016131), the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University (No. NCET-13-0509)
More Information
    Corresponding author: ZHENG Tingguo.E-mail address:zhengtg@gmail.com
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2017-11-10
  • 修回日期:  2018-03-09
  • 刊出日期:  2018-08-27

Regional Clustering and Synchronization of Provincial Business Fluc-tuations in China

doi: 10.1007/s11769-018-0975-1
    基金项目:  Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 71371160), the Program for Changjiang Youth Scholars (No. Q2016131), the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University (No. NCET-13-0509)
    通讯作者: ZHENG Tingguo.E-mail address:zhengtg@gmail.com

摘要: In this article, we propose a novel, multilevel, dynamic factor model, to determine endogenously clustered regions for the investigation of regional clustering and synchronization of provincial business fluctuations in China. The parameter identification and model estimation was conducted using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. We then conducted an empirical study of the provincial business fluctuations in China (31 Chinese provinces are considered except Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan due to the data unavailability), which were sampled from January 2000 to December 2015. Our results indicated that these provinces could be clustered into four regions:leading, coincident, lagging, and overshooting. In comparison with traditional geographical divisions, this novel clustering into four regions enabled the regional business cycle synchronization to be more accurately captured. Within the four regional clusters it was possible to identify substantial heterogeneities among regional business cycle fluctuations, especially during the periods of the 2008 financial crisis and the ‘four-trillion economic stimulus plan’.

English Abstract

SONG Tao, ZHENG Tingguo, XIA Kai. Regional Clustering and Synchronization of Provincial Business Fluc-tuations in China[J]. 中国地理科学, 2018, 28(4): 571-583. doi: 10.1007/s11769-018-0975-1
引用本文: SONG Tao, ZHENG Tingguo, XIA Kai. Regional Clustering and Synchronization of Provincial Business Fluc-tuations in China[J]. 中国地理科学, 2018, 28(4): 571-583. doi: 10.1007/s11769-018-0975-1
SONG Tao, ZHENG Tingguo, XIA Kai. Regional Clustering and Synchronization of Provincial Business Fluc-tuations in China[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 2018, 28(4): 571-583. doi: 10.1007/s11769-018-0975-1
Citation: SONG Tao, ZHENG Tingguo, XIA Kai. Regional Clustering and Synchronization of Provincial Business Fluc-tuations in China[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 2018, 28(4): 571-583. doi: 10.1007/s11769-018-0975-1
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