Measurement and Scenario Simulation of Effect of Urbanisation on Regional CO<sub>2</sub> Emissions Based on UEC-SD Model:A Case Study in Liaoning Province, China

LI Fujia; DONG Suocheng; LI Shantong; LI Zehong; LI Yu

doi:10.1007/s11769-014-0729-7

Measurement and Scenario Simulation of Effect of Urbanisation on Regional CO₂ Emissions Based on UEC-SD Model:A Case Study in Liaoning Province, China

doi: 10.1007/s11769-014-0729-7

1.
School of Public Policy and Management of Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
2.
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

基金项目: Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41301637, 41101117, 41271186), Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 71133003)

详细信息

通讯作者:
DONG Suocheng. E-mail:dongsc@igsnrr.ac.cn;LI Zehong. E-mail:lizehong@igsnrr.ac.cn

Measurement and Scenario Simulation of Effect of Urbanisation on Regional CO₂ Emissions Based on UEC-SD Model:A Case Study in Liaoning Province, China

1.
School of Public Policy and Management of Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;
2.
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

Funds: Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41301637, 41101117, 41271186), Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 71133003)

More Information

Corresponding author: DONG Suocheng. E-mail:dongsc@igsnrr.ac.cn;LI Zehong. E-mail:lizehong@igsnrr.ac.cn

摘要: Based on the logical causal relationship and taking Liaoning Province, China, which is the Chinese traditional industrial base and is in the stage of accelerated urbanisation, as a case study, this study builds the 'Urbanisation-Energy Consumption-CO₂ Emissions System Dynamics (UEC-SD)' model using a system dynamics method. The UEC-SD model is applied to analyse the effect of the urbanisation process on the regional energy structure and CO₂ emissions, followed by simulation of future production and living energy consumption structure as well as the evolutionary trend of CO₂ emissions of three urbanisation scenarios (low speed, intermediate speed and high speed) under the assumed boundary conditions in urban and rural areas of Liaoning Province, China. The results show that the urbanisation process can alter production and the living energy consumption structure and thereby change regional CO₂ emissions. An increase in the urbanisation rate in case area will lead to regional CO₂ emissions rising in the short term, but when the urbanisation rate approaches 80%, CO₂ emissions will reach a peak value and then decrease. Comparison of different urbanisation rates showed that production and living energy consumption exhibit different directions of change and rules in urban and rural areas. The effect of urbanisation on CO₂ emissions and energy structure is not direct, and urbanisation can increase the differences in energy and CO₂ emissions between urban and rural areas caused by the industrial structure, technical level and other factors.
- urbanisation /
- CO₂ emissions /
- scenario simulation /
- Urbanisation-Energy Consumption-CO₂ Emissions System Dynamics (UEC-SD) model /
- Liaoning Province /
- China
Abstract: Based on the logical causal relationship and taking Liaoning Province, China, which is the Chinese traditional industrial base and is in the stage of accelerated urbanisation, as a case study, this study builds the 'Urbanisation-Energy Consumption-CO₂ Emissions System Dynamics (UEC-SD)' model using a system dynamics method. The UEC-SD model is applied to analyse the effect of the urbanisation process on the regional energy structure and CO₂ emissions, followed by simulation of future production and living energy consumption structure as well as the evolutionary trend of CO₂ emissions of three urbanisation scenarios (low speed, intermediate speed and high speed) under the assumed boundary conditions in urban and rural areas of Liaoning Province, China. The results show that the urbanisation process can alter production and the living energy consumption structure and thereby change regional CO₂ emissions. An increase in the urbanisation rate in case area will lead to regional CO₂ emissions rising in the short term, but when the urbanisation rate approaches 80%, CO₂ emissions will reach a peak value and then decrease. Comparison of different urbanisation rates showed that production and living energy consumption exhibit different directions of change and rules in urban and rural areas. The effect of urbanisation on CO₂ emissions and energy structure is not direct, and urbanisation can increase the differences in energy and CO₂ emissions between urban and rural areas caused by the industrial structure, technical level and other factors.
- urbanisation /
- CO₂ emissions /
- scenario simulation /
- Urbanisation-Energy Consumption-CO₂ Emissions System Dynamics (UEC-SD) model /
- Liaoning Province /
- China

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Measurement and Scenario Simulation of Effect of Urbanisation on Regional CO₂ Emissions Based on UEC-SD Model:A Case Study in Liaoning Province, China

doi: 10.1007/s11769-014-0729-7

通讯作者:
DONG Suocheng. E-mail:dongsc@igsnrr.ac.cn;LI Zehong. E-mail:lizehong@igsnrr.ac.cn

Measurement and Scenario Simulation of Effect of Urbanisation on Regional CO₂ Emissions Based on UEC-SD Model:A Case Study in Liaoning Province, China

Corresponding author: DONG Suocheng. E-mail:dongsc@igsnrr.ac.cn;LI Zehong. E-mail:lizehong@igsnrr.ac.cn

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Measurement and Scenario Simulation of Effect of Urbanisation on Regional CO₂ Emissions Based on UEC-SD Model:A Case Study in Liaoning Province, China

doi: 10.1007/s11769-014-0729-7

1. School of Public Policy and Management of Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;

2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

通讯作者: DONG Suocheng. E-mail:dongsc@igsnrr.ac.cn;LI Zehong. E-mail:lizehong@igsnrr.ac.cn

English Abstract

Measurement and Scenario Simulation of Effect of Urbanisation on Regional CO₂ Emissions Based on UEC-SD Model:A Case Study in Liaoning Province, China

1. School of Public Policy and Management of Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;

2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

Corresponding author: DONG Suocheng. E-mail:dongsc@igsnrr.ac.cn;LI Zehong. E-mail:lizehong@igsnrr.ac.cn

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Measurement and Scenario Simulation of Effect of Urbanisation on Regional CO2 Emissions Based on UEC-SD Model:A Case Study in Liaoning Province, China

doi: 10.1007/s11769-014-0729-7

通讯作者: DONG Suocheng. E-mail:dongsc@igsnrr.ac.cn;LI Zehong. E-mail:lizehong@igsnrr.ac.cn

Measurement and Scenario Simulation of Effect of Urbanisation on Regional CO2 Emissions Based on UEC-SD Model:A Case Study in Liaoning Province, China

Corresponding author: DONG Suocheng. E-mail:dongsc@igsnrr.ac.cn;LI Zehong. E-mail:lizehong@igsnrr.ac.cn

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Measurement and Scenario Simulation of Effect of Urbanisation on Regional CO2 Emissions Based on UEC-SD Model:A Case Study in Liaoning Province, China

doi: 10.1007/s11769-014-0729-7

1. School of Public Policy and Management of Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; 2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

通讯作者: DONG Suocheng. E-mail:dongsc@igsnrr.ac.cn;LI Zehong. E-mail:lizehong@igsnrr.ac.cn

English Abstract

Measurement and Scenario Simulation of Effect of Urbanisation on Regional CO2 Emissions Based on UEC-SD Model:A Case Study in Liaoning Province, China

1. School of Public Policy and Management of Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; 2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

Corresponding author: DONG Suocheng. E-mail:dongsc@igsnrr.ac.cn;LI Zehong. E-mail:lizehong@igsnrr.ac.cn

全文HTML

目录

Measurement and Scenario Simulation of Effect of Urbanisation on Regional CO₂ Emissions Based on UEC-SD Model:A Case Study in Liaoning Province, China

通讯作者:
DONG Suocheng. E-mail:dongsc@igsnrr.ac.cn;LI Zehong. E-mail:lizehong@igsnrr.ac.cn

Measurement and Scenario Simulation of Effect of Urbanisation on Regional CO₂ Emissions Based on UEC-SD Model:A Case Study in Liaoning Province, China

Measurement and Scenario Simulation of Effect of Urbanisation on Regional CO₂ Emissions Based on UEC-SD Model:A Case Study in Liaoning Province, China

1. School of Public Policy and Management of Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;

2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

Measurement and Scenario Simulation of Effect of Urbanisation on Regional CO₂ Emissions Based on UEC-SD Model:A Case Study in Liaoning Province, China

1. School of Public Policy and Management of Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;

2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China