Impact of Extreme Events on the Climate Disaster Resilience of Food Production Systems in the Songhua River Basin, China from 2000 to 2023

  • Abstract: Climate change has increasingly threatened global crop production, making the assessment of Climate disaster resilience (CDR) essential for agricultural sustainability. This study quantitatively assessed the CDR of food production systems in the Songhua River Basin, an important grain-producing area in China, from 2000 to 2023 using the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model. We analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of four major climate hazards—extreme heat, drought, flood-waterlogging, and cold damage—during the growing seasons of maize (Zea mays), rice (Oryza sativa), and soybean (Glycine max). Furthermore, Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) was employed to identify the dominant drivers of CDR. The results indicate that: 1) the basin experienced intensifying flood-waterlogging risk, particularly during the vegetative growth and filling-maturation stages, while drought risk declined significantly and extreme heat risk remained relatively stable. Cold damage risk showed a stage-specific pattern, increasing during the early and late growth phases but decreasing during the concurrent vegetative and reproductive growth stage. Spatially, extreme heat and drought risks were concentrated in the southwest, flood-waterlogging risk was concentrated in the south and east, and cold damage risk was concentrated in the northern regions. 2) The CDR of the food production system improved markedly, with the proportion of prefecture-level administrative units achieving moderate resilience increasing by approximately 41% in 2020–2023 compared with 2000–2004. 3) The GRA results revealed that the Response subsystem had the strongest association with overall CDR. Among the specific indicators, per capita gross agricultural output and agricultural fiscal expenditure exhibited the highest correlation degrees with CDR, suggesting that improving agricultural economic returns and increasing fiscal investment are critical for resilience to climate-related shocks. These findings provide scientific guidance for optimizing resource allocation to safeguard regional food security.

     

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