Abstract: Elucidating spatiotemporal evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of ecosystem services (ES) facilitates the optimization of ES supply-demand structures and advances ecological management zoning objectives. Using China’s Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle (CCEC) as a case study, this research employs a water-carbon-soil nexus framework to: 1) quantify spatiotemporal mismatches between ES supply and urbanization-driven demand, 2) reveal driving mechanisms underlying natural constraints and anthropogenic pressures, and 3) establish a three-tier adaptive zoning system where each zone implements hierarchical governance strategies to address region-specific supply-demand imbalances. Key findings reveal: 1) during 2000-2020, all three ES exhibited significant supply-demand clustering: low supply-low demand clusters dominated water yield (20%) and soil retention (22%), while carbon sequestration was characterized predominantly by high supply-low demand clusters (26%). 2) The overall ES supply-demand balance deteriorated, with the Composite Ecosystem Supply-Demand Ratio (CESDR) declining from 0.149 to 0.111. This shift manifested spatially as ‘dual-core deficit expansion with peripheral surplus contraction’. 3) Primary drivers variation were population density (mean β = -0.236), gross domestic product (mean β = -0.641), and normalized difference vegetation index (mean β = 0.322), indicating negative anthropogenic pressures versus positive vegetation-mediated effects. 4) By integrating ES clustering patterns, Composite Ecosystem Supply-Demand Ratio dynamics, and key drivers, we delineated Core Restoration Zones, Flexible Regulation Zones, and Ecological Priority Conservation Zones at county and grid scales. This framework can provide referable ideas and paradigms for the ecological security and economic development of mega-urban agglomerations.