Beyond Local Diversification: Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Regional Technology Evolution Trajectories in China

China’s innovation trajectory has followed the latecomer catch-up paradigm from technology introduction to indigenous innovation, yet the evolutionary processes and mechanisms shaping regional technological pathways remain poorly understood. This study proposes an analytical framework for regional technology diversification that integrates the related-unrelated diversification dimension with sectoral regime-niche dynamics. We identify four types of regional technology diversification (replication, transplantation, exaptation, and saltation) and use this typology to examine the spatio-temporal dynamics of China’s regional diversification trajectories. The findings indicate that: 1) regional technology diversification follows a logistic evolutionary trajectory, with its aggregate scale showing slow initial growth, subsequent acceleration, and eventual stabilization. Early-stage diversification prioritizes horizontal branching into technologically related yet non-core sectors within local knowledge bases (transplantation), while later-stage diversification shifts toward vertical proliferation in sectors with intensive knowledge flows (replication). 2) The evolutionary progression of regional technology diversification unfolds through exploration, development, consolidation, and maturity stages, exhibiting a distinct east-west spatial gradient in stage transitions. Stage advancement occurred more frequently in eastern and parts of central China, whereas many western cities remained in relatively stable stages. 3) This process is driven by the co-evolution of local knowledge bases, regional innovation capabilities, and external linkages, with their relative importance varying across stages. By extending diversification analysis beyond a purely local perspective, this study contributes to a better understanding of regional technology evolution and provides insights for differentiated innovation policies.