Harry Fung LEE, ZHANG David Dian, PEI Qing, FEI Jie. Downscaling and Disaggregating NAO-conflict Nexus in Pre-industrial Europe[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 2016, 26(5): 609-622. doi: 10.1007/s11769-016-0817-y
Citation: Harry Fung LEE, ZHANG David Dian, PEI Qing, FEI Jie. Downscaling and Disaggregating NAO-conflict Nexus in Pre-industrial Europe[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 2016, 26(5): 609-622. doi: 10.1007/s11769-016-0817-y

Downscaling and Disaggregating NAO-conflict Nexus in Pre-industrial Europe

doi: 10.1007/s11769-016-0817-y
Funds:  Under the auspices of Hui Oi-Chow Trust Fund (No. 201302172003, 201502172003), Research Grants Council of Government of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China (No. HKU758712H, HKU745113H, HKU17610715)
More Information
  • Corresponding author: Harry Fung LEE.E-mail:harrylee@hku.hk
  • Received Date: 2015-05-04
  • Rev Recd Date: 2015-08-28
  • Publish Date: 2016-10-27
  • Recently, the desiccation effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is found to be positively correlated with violent conflict in pre-industrial Europe, with agricultural shrinkage and its subsequent economic shocks to be their causal link. However, it remains unexplored whether the correlation persists if the study period is extended backward in time, a different definition of violent conflict is applied, or the relationship is examined at lower geographic levels. In this study, we based on 835 internal disturbance incidents in Europe during 1049-1800 to conduct long-temporal and multi-scalar examination on the NAO-conflict nexus.‘Time-series’and‘panel data’disaggregation approaches, together with Granger Causality, Multiple Regression, and Survival Analyses were applied to verify the nexus quantitatively. Results show that the positive NAO-conflict correlation was significant at the continent and physiographic zone levels. During the positive NAO phases, the annual probability of internal disturbance outbreak increased by 70.0% in the southern Europe and the Mediterranean, a zone most affected by the NAO-induced desiccation effect. Yet, the NAO-conflict correlation was rather inconsistent when it was downscaled to the sub-regional level. Moreover, the NAO-conflict correlation was inflated under the time-series approach, while the panel data approach demonstrated the region-specific nature of the NAO forcing more clearly. The associated implications in examining climate-conflict nexus are discussed. Our findings may be crucial in examining violent conflict in the northwestern Africa, a highly agricultural region affected by the NAO.
  • [1] Anderson R W, Johnson N D, Koyama M, 2013. From the perse-cuting to the protective state? Jewish expulsions and weather shocks from 1100 to 1800. Available via http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/44228/44221/MPRA_paper_44228.pdf.2014-01-16
    [2] Bai Y, Kung J K S, 2011. Climate shocks and Sino-nomadic con-flict. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 93(3): 970-981. doi:  10.1162/REST_a_00106
    [3] Brázdil R, Pfister C, Wanner H et al., 2005. Historical climatology in Europe: the state of the Art. Climatic Change, 70(3): 363-430. doi:  10.1007/s10584-005-5924-1
    [4] Brecke P, 1999. Violent conflicts 1400 A.D. to the present in dif-ferent regions of the world. The 1999 Meeting of the Peace Science Society (International), Michigan.
    [5] Buhaug H, 2010. Climate not to blame for African civil wars. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 107(38): 16477-16482. doi: 10. 1073/pnas. 1005739107
    [6] Buhaug H, Rød J K, 2006. Local determinants of African civil wars, 1970-2001. Political Geography, 25(3): 315-335. doi:  10.1016/j.polgeo.2006.02.005
    [7] Büntgen U, Kyncl T, Ginzler C et al., 2013. Filling the Eastern European gap in millennium-long temperature reconstructions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110(5): 1773-1778. doi:  10.1073/pnas.1211485110
    [8] Büntgen U, Tegel W, Nicolussi K et al., 2011. 2500 years of Eu-ropean climate variability and human susceptibility. Science, 331(6017): 578-582. doi:  10.1126/science.1197175
    [9] Cane M A, Miguel E, Burke M et al., 2014. Temperature and violence. Nature Climate Change, 4: 234-235. doi:  10.1038/nclimate2171
    [10] Catto N, Catto G, 2004. Climate change, communities, and civili-zations: driving force, supporting player, or background noise? Quaternary International, 123-125: 7-10. doi: 10.1016/j. quaint.2004.02.002
    [11] Chu G, Sun Q, Wang X et al., 2008. Snow anomaly events from historical documents in eastern China during the past two mil-lennia and implication for low-frequency variability of AO/NAO and PDO. Geophysical Research Letters, 35(14): L14806. doi:  10.1029/2008GL034475
    [12] Clark W C, 1985. Scales of climate impacts. Climatic Change, 7(1): 5-27. doi:  10.1007/BF00139438
    [13] Cook E R, D'Arrigo R D, Mann M E, 2002. A well-verified, mul-tiproxy reconstruction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation Index since A.D. 1400. Journal of Climate, 15(13): 1754-1764. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1754:AWVMRO> 2.0.CO;2
    [14] Cullen H M, deMenocal P B, 2000. North Atlantic influence on Tigris-Euphrates streamflow. International Journal of Clima-tology, 20(8): 853-863. doi: 10.1002/1097-0088(20000630) 20:8<853::AID-JOC497>3.0.CO;2-M
    [15] de Vaus D A, 2002. Analyzing Social Science Data. Sage, London.
    [16] Eckhardt W, 1990. Civilizations, empires, and wars. Journal of Peace Research, 27(1): 9-24. doi: 10.1177/002234339002700 1003
    [17] Fraser E D G, 2011. Can economic, land use and climatic stresses lead to famine, disease, warfare and death? Using Europe's calamitous 14th century as a parable for the modern age. Eco-logical Economics, 70(7): 1269-1279. doi:  10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.02.010
    [18] Gibson C C, Ostrom E, Ahn T K, 2000. The concept of scale and the human dimensions of global change: a survey. Ecological Economics, 32(2): 217-239. doi: 10.1016/S0921-8009(99) 00092-0
    [19] Glueck M F, Stockton C W, 2001. Reconstruction of the North Atlantic Oscillation, 1429-1983. International Journal of Climatology, 21(12): 1453-1465. doi:  10.1002/joc.684
    [20] Granger C W J, 1988. Some recent development in a concept of causality. Journal of Econometrics, 39(1-2): 199-211. doi:  10.1016/0304-4076(88)90045-0
    [21] Hendrix C S, Glaser S M, 2007. Trends and triggers: climate, climate change and civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. Political Geography, 26(6): 695-715. doi: 10.1016/j.polgeo. 2007.06.006
    [22] Hendrix C S, Salehyan I, 2012. Climate change, rainfall, and social conflict in Africa. Journal of Peace Research, 49(1): 35-50. doi:  10.1177/0022343311426165
    [23] Hsiang S M, Burke M, 2014. Climate, conflict, and social stability: what does the evidence say? Climatic Change, 123(1): 39-55. doi:  10.1007/s10584-013-0868-3
    [24] Hsiang S M, Burke M, Miguel E, 2013. Quantifying the influence of climate on human conflict. Science, 341(6151): 1235367. doi:  10.1126/science.1235367
    [25] Hsiang S M, Meng K C, Cane M A, 2011. Civil conflicts are as-sociated with the global climate. Nature, 476(7361): 438-441. doi:  10.1038/nature10311
    [26] Hurrell J W, 1995. Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: regional temperatures and precipitation. Science, 269(5224): 676-679. doi:  10.1126/science.269.5224.676
    [27] Hurrell J W, 2003. Climate variability: North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation. In Holton J et al. (eds.). Encyclopedia of Atmos-pheric Sciences. London: Academic Press, 439-445.
    [28] Hurrell J W, van Loon H, 1997. Decadal variations in climate associated with the North Atlantic oscillation. Climatic Change, 36(3-4): 301-326. doi:  10.1023/A:1005314315270
    [29] IPCC, 2013. Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Re-port of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
    [30] Jia R, 2013. Weather shocks, sweet potatoes and peasant revolts in historical China. The Economic Journal, 124(575): 92-118. doi:  10.1111/ecoj.12037
    [31] Kleinbaum D G, 1996. Survival Analysis: A Self-learning Text. New York: Springer-Verlag.
    [32] Kohn G C, 1999. Dictionary of Wars. New York: Facts On File.
    [33] Korotayev A V, Malkov A S, Khaltourina D A, 2006. Secular cycles and millennial trends. In Korotayev A V et al. (eds.). Introduction to Social Macrodynamics: Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends. Moscow: URSS, 95-133.
    [34] Kung J K S, Ma C, 2014. Can cultural norms reduce conflicts? Confucianism and peasant rebellions in Qing China. Journal of Development Economics, 111: 132-149. doi:  10.1016/j.jdeveco.2014.08.006
    [35] Lee H F, Zhang D D, Brecke P et al., 2013. Positive correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation and violent conflicts in Europe. Climate Research, 56(1): 1-10. doi:  10.3354/cr01129
    [36] Lobell D B, Burke M B, Tebaldi C et al., 2008. Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science, 319(5863): 607-610. doi:  10.1126/science.1152339
    [37] Luard E, 1986. War in International Society: A Study in Interna-tional Sociology. Tauris, London.
    [38] Miguel E, Satyanath S, Sergenti E, 2004. Economic shocks and civil conflict: An instrumental variables approach. Journal of Political Economy, 112(4): 725-753. doi:  10.1086/421174
    [39] O'Loughlin J, Witmer F D W, Linke A M et al., 2012. Climate variability and conflict risk in East Africa, 1990-2009. Pro-ceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 109(45): 18344-18349. doi: 10.1073/pnas. 1205130109
    [40] Pei Q, Zhang D D, 2014. Long-term relationship between climate change and nomadic migration in historical China. Ecology and Society, 19(2): 68. doi:  10.5751/ES-06528-190268
    [41] Pei Q, Zhang D D, Lee H F et al., 2014. Climate change and macro-economic cycles in pre-industrial Europe. PLoS ONE, 9(2): e88155. doi:  10.1371/journal.pone.0088155
    [42] Pei Q, Zhang D D, Li G et al., 2013. Short and long term impacts of climate variations on the agrarian economy in pre-industrial Europe. Climate Research, 56(2): 169-180. doi:  10.3354/cr01145
    [43] Pei Q, Zhang D D, Li G et al., 2015. Climate change and the macroeconomic structure in pre-industrial Europe: new evidence from wavelet analysis. PLoS ONE, 10(6): e0126480. doi:  10.1371/journal.pone.0126480
    [44] Pinker S, 2011. The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined. Viking, New York.
    [45] Raleigh C, Kniveton D, 2012. Come rain or shine: an analysis of conflict and climate variability in East Africa. Journal of Peace Research, 49(1): 51-64. doi:  10.1177/0022343311427754
    [46] Scaife A A, Folland, C K, Alexander L V et al., 2008. European climate extremes and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Journal of Climate, 21(1): 72-83. doi:  10.1175/2007JCLI1631.1
    [47] Schumm S A, 1991. To Interpret the Earth: Ten Ways to be Wrong. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
    [48] Sorokin P A, 1937. Social and Cultural Dynamics (Vol. 3). New York: American Book Company.
    [49] Tol R S J, Wagner S, 2010. Climate change and violent conflict in Europe over the last millennium. Climatic Change, 99(1-2): 65-79. doi:  10.1007/s10584-009-9659-2
    [50] Trigo R M, Osborn T J, Corte-Real J M, 2002. The North Atlantic Oscillation influence on Europe: climate impacts and associated physical mechanisms. Climate Research, 20(1): 9-17. doi:  10.3354/cr020009
    [51] Trouet V, Esper J, Graham N E et al., 2009. Persistent positive North Atlantic Oscillation mode dominated the Medieval climate anomaly. Science, 324(5923): 78-80. doi:  10.1126/sci-ence.1166349
    [52] UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme), 2007. Sudan: Post-conflict Environmental Assessment. Nairobi, Kenya, United Nations Environment Programme.
    [53] Vicente-Serrano S M, López-Moreno J I, Lorenzo-Lacruz J et al., 2011. The NAO impact on droughts in the Mediterranean re-gion. In Vicente-Serrano S M et al. (eds.). Hydrological, Soci-oeconomic and Ecological Impacts of the North Atlantic Os-cillation in the Mediterranean Region. Dordrecht: Springer, 23-40.
    [54] Wang G, Dolman A J, Alessandri A, 2011. A summer climate re-gime over Europe modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15(1): 57-64. doi:  10.5194/hess-15-57-2011
    [55] Zhang D D, Brecke P, Lee H F et al., 2007a. Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 104(49): 19214-19219. doi:  10.1073/pnas.0703073104
    [56] Zhang D D, Lee H F, Wang C et al., 2011a. The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108(42): 17296-17301. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1104268 108
    [57] Zhang D D, Lee H F, Wang C et al., 2011b. Climate change and large scale human population collapses in the pre-industrial era. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 20(4): 520-531. doi:  10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00625.x
    [58] Zhang D D, Pei Q, Lee H F et al., 2015. The pulse of imperial China: a quantitative analysis of long-term geopolitical and climatic cycles. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 24(1): 87-96. doi:  10.1111/geb.12247
    [59] Zhang D D, Zhang J, Lee H F et al., 2007b. Climate change and war frequency in Eastern China over the last millennium. Hu-man Ecology, 35(4): 403-414. doi:  10.1007/s10745-007-9115-8
    [60] Zhang D, Jim C Y, Lin C S et al., 2005. Climate change, social unrest and dynastic transition in ancient China. Chinese Science Bulletin, 50(2): 137-144. doi:  10.1360/03wd0641
    [61] Zhang D, Jim C Y, Lin C S et al., 2006. Climatic change, wars and dynastic cycles in China over the last millennium. Climatic Change, 76(3-4): 459-477. doi:  10.1007/s10584-005-9024-z
  • 加载中
通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
  • 1. 

    沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

  1. 本站搜索
  2. 百度学术搜索
  3. 万方数据库搜索
  4. CNKI搜索

Article Metrics

Article views(379) PDF downloads(693) Cited by()

Proportional views
Related

Downscaling and Disaggregating NAO-conflict Nexus in Pre-industrial Europe

doi: 10.1007/s11769-016-0817-y
Funds:  Under the auspices of Hui Oi-Chow Trust Fund (No. 201302172003, 201502172003), Research Grants Council of Government of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China (No. HKU758712H, HKU745113H, HKU17610715)
    Corresponding author: Harry Fung LEE.E-mail:harrylee@hku.hk

Abstract: Recently, the desiccation effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is found to be positively correlated with violent conflict in pre-industrial Europe, with agricultural shrinkage and its subsequent economic shocks to be their causal link. However, it remains unexplored whether the correlation persists if the study period is extended backward in time, a different definition of violent conflict is applied, or the relationship is examined at lower geographic levels. In this study, we based on 835 internal disturbance incidents in Europe during 1049-1800 to conduct long-temporal and multi-scalar examination on the NAO-conflict nexus.‘Time-series’and‘panel data’disaggregation approaches, together with Granger Causality, Multiple Regression, and Survival Analyses were applied to verify the nexus quantitatively. Results show that the positive NAO-conflict correlation was significant at the continent and physiographic zone levels. During the positive NAO phases, the annual probability of internal disturbance outbreak increased by 70.0% in the southern Europe and the Mediterranean, a zone most affected by the NAO-induced desiccation effect. Yet, the NAO-conflict correlation was rather inconsistent when it was downscaled to the sub-regional level. Moreover, the NAO-conflict correlation was inflated under the time-series approach, while the panel data approach demonstrated the region-specific nature of the NAO forcing more clearly. The associated implications in examining climate-conflict nexus are discussed. Our findings may be crucial in examining violent conflict in the northwestern Africa, a highly agricultural region affected by the NAO.

Harry Fung LEE, ZHANG David Dian, PEI Qing, FEI Jie. Downscaling and Disaggregating NAO-conflict Nexus in Pre-industrial Europe[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 2016, 26(5): 609-622. doi: 10.1007/s11769-016-0817-y
Citation: Harry Fung LEE, ZHANG David Dian, PEI Qing, FEI Jie. Downscaling and Disaggregating NAO-conflict Nexus in Pre-industrial Europe[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 2016, 26(5): 609-622. doi: 10.1007/s11769-016-0817-y
Reference (61)

Catalog

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return
    Return