Simulation of Land-use Scenarios for Beijing Using CLUE-S and Markov Composite Models

HU Yecui; ZHENG Yunmei; ZHENG Xinqi

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Simulation of Land-use Scenarios for Beijing Using CLUE-S and Markov Composite Models

HU Yecui, ZHENG Yunmei, ZHENG Xinqi

文章导航 > Chinese Geographical Science > 2013 > 23(1): 92-100

HU Yecui, ZHENG Yunmei, ZHENG Xinqi. Simulation of Land-use Scenarios for Beijing Using CLUE-S and Markov Composite Models[J]. 中国地理科学, 2013, 23(1): 92-100.

引用本文:

HU Yecui, ZHENG Yunmei, ZHENG Xinqi. Simulation of Land-use Scenarios for Beijing Using CLUE-S and Markov Composite Models[J]. 中国地理科学, 2013, 23(1): 92-100.

HU Yecui, ZHENG Yunmei, ZHENG Xinqi. Simulation of Land-use Scenarios for Beijing Using CLUE-S and Markov Composite Models[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 2013, 23(1): 92-100.

Citation:

HU Yecui, ZHENG Yunmei, ZHENG Xinqi. Simulation of Land-use Scenarios for Beijing Using CLUE-S and Markov Composite Models[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 2013, 23(1): 92-100.

Simulation of Land-use Scenarios for Beijing Using CLUE-S and Markov Composite Models

(1. School of Land Science & Technique, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Land Consolidation, Ministry of Land and Resources, Beijing 100035, China)

Simulation of Land-use Scenarios for Beijing Using CLUE-S and Markov Composite Models

(1. School of Land Science & Technique, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Land Consolidation, Ministry of Land and Resources, Beijing 100035, China)

摘要: This study investigated and simulated land use patterns in Beijing for the year 2000 and the year 2005 from the actual land use data for the year 1995 and the year 2000, respectively, by combining spatial land allocation simulation using the CLUE-S model, and numerical land demand prediction using the Markov model. The simulations for 2000 and 2005 were confirmed to be generally accurate using Kappa indices. Then the land-use scenarios for Beijing in 2015 were simulated assuming two modes of development: 1) urban development following existing trends; and 2) under a strict farmland control. The simulations suggested that under either mode, urbanized areas would expand at the expense of land for other uses. This expansion was predicted to dominate the land-use conversions between 2005 and 2015, and was expected to be accompanied by an extensive loss of farmland. The key susceptible to land-use changes were found to be located at the central urban Beijing and the surrounding regions including Yanqing County, Changping District and Fangshan District. Also, the simulations predicted a considerable expansion of urban/suburban areas in the mountainous regions of Beijing, suggesting a need for priority monitoring and protection.
- CLUE-S model /
- land use /
- Markov model /
- scenario simulation /
- Beijing
Abstract: This study investigated and simulated land use patterns in Beijing for the year 2000 and the year 2005 from the actual land use data for the year 1995 and the year 2000, respectively, by combining spatial land allocation simulation using the CLUE-S model, and numerical land demand prediction using the Markov model. The simulations for 2000 and 2005 were confirmed to be generally accurate using Kappa indices. Then the land-use scenarios for Beijing in 2015 were simulated assuming two modes of development: 1) urban development following existing trends; and 2) under a strict farmland control. The simulations suggested that under either mode, urbanized areas would expand at the expense of land for other uses. This expansion was predicted to dominate the land-use conversions between 2005 and 2015, and was expected to be accompanied by an extensive loss of farmland. The key susceptible to land-use changes were found to be located at the central urban Beijing and the surrounding regions including Yanqing County, Changping District and Fangshan District. Also, the simulations predicted a considerable expansion of urban/suburban areas in the mountainous regions of Beijing, suggesting a need for priority monitoring and protection.
- CLUE-S model /
- land use /
- Markov model /
- scenario simulation /
- Beijing

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Simulation of Land-use Scenarios for Beijing Using CLUE-S and Markov Composite Models

(1. School of Land Science & Technique, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Land Consolidation, Ministry of Land and Resources, Beijing 100035, China)

刊出日期: 2013-01-04

关键词:

CLUE-S model /

land use /

Markov model /

scenario simulation /

Beijing

摘要: This study investigated and simulated land use patterns in Beijing for the year 2000 and the year 2005 from the actual land use data for the year 1995 and the year 2000, respectively, by combining spatial land allocation simulation using the CLUE-S model, and numerical land demand prediction using the Markov model. The simulations for 2000 and 2005 were confirmed to be generally accurate using Kappa indices. Then the land-use scenarios for Beijing in 2015 were simulated assuming two modes of development: 1) urban development following existing trends; and 2) under a strict farmland control. The simulations suggested that under either mode, urbanized areas would expand at the expense of land for other uses. This expansion was predicted to dominate the land-use conversions between 2005 and 2015, and was expected to be accompanied by an extensive loss of farmland. The key susceptible to land-use changes were found to be located at the central urban Beijing and the surrounding regions including Yanqing County, Changping District and Fangshan District. Also, the simulations predicted a considerable expansion of urban/suburban areas in the mountainous regions of Beijing, suggesting a need for priority monitoring and protection.

English Abstract

HU Yecui, ZHENG Yunmei, ZHENG Xinqi. Simulation of Land-use Scenarios for Beijing Using CLUE-S and Markov Composite Models[J]. 中国地理科学, 2013, 23(1): 92-100.

引用本文:

HU Yecui, ZHENG Yunmei, ZHENG Xinqi. Simulation of Land-use Scenarios for Beijing Using CLUE-S and Markov Composite Models[J]. 中国地理科学, 2013, 23(1): 92-100.

HU Yecui, ZHENG Yunmei, ZHENG Xinqi. Simulation of Land-use Scenarios for Beijing Using CLUE-S and Markov Composite Models[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 2013, 23(1): 92-100.

Citation:

HU Yecui, ZHENG Yunmei, ZHENG Xinqi. Simulation of Land-use Scenarios for Beijing Using CLUE-S and Markov Composite Models[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 2013, 23(1): 92-100.

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Simulation of Land-use Scenarios for Beijing Using CLUE-S and Markov Composite Models

Simulation of Land-use Scenarios for Beijing Using CLUE-S and Markov Composite Models

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Simulation of Land-use Scenarios for Beijing Using CLUE-S and Markov Composite Models

(1. School of Land Science & Technique, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Land Consolidation, Ministry of Land and Resources, Beijing 100035, China)

English Abstract

Simulation of Land-use Scenarios for Beijing Using CLUE-S and Markov Composite Models

(1. School of Land Science & Technique, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Land Consolidation, Ministry of Land and Resources, Beijing 100035, China)

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