Origin Distribution Patterns and Floating Population Modeling: Yiwu City as a Destination

LI Hongsheng; WANG Yingjie; HAN Jiafu

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Origin Distribution Patterns and Floating Population Modeling: Yiwu City as a Destination

LI Hongsheng, WANG Yingjie, HAN Jiafu

文章导航 > Chinese Geographical Science > 2012 > 22(3): 367-380

LI Hongsheng, WANG Yingjie, HAN Jiafu. Origin Distribution Patterns and Floating Population Modeling: Yiwu City as a Destination[J]. 中国地理科学, 2012, 22(3): 367-380.

引用本文:

LI Hongsheng, WANG Yingjie, HAN Jiafu. Origin Distribution Patterns and Floating Population Modeling: Yiwu City as a Destination[J]. 中国地理科学, 2012, 22(3): 367-380.

Origin Distribution Patterns and Floating Population Modeling: Yiwu City as a Destination

( State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural ResourcesResearch, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

( State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural ResourcesResearch, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

摘要: Existing quantitative migration studies are mainly at the inter-region or inter-province level for lacking of detailed geo-
referenced migration data. Meanwhile, few of them integrate explorative spatial data analysis and spatial regression model into migration
analysis. Based on aggregated registered floating population data from 2005 to 2008, the phenomena that population floating to Yiwu
City in Zhejiang Province is analyzed at the provincial and county levels. The spatial layout of Yiwu′s pull forces is proved as a V-shaped
pattern excluding Sichuan Province based on map visualization method. Using the migration ratio in 2007 as an explanatory variable, two
models are compared using ordinary least square, spatial error model and spatial lag model methods for county-level data in Jiangxi and
Anhui provinces. The model with migration stock provides an improved fitting over the model without migration stock according to the
model fitting results. The floating population flocking into Yiwu City from Jiangxi is determined mostly by migration stock while the
determinant factors are migration stock and distance to Yiwu City for Anhui. The distance-decay effect is true for migration flow from
Anhui to Yiwu City while the distance rule is not confirmed in Jiangxi with the best fitting model. The correlation between per capita net
income of rural labor forces and migration ratio is not significant in Jiangxi and significant but at the 0.1 level only in Anhui. Further
analysis shows that the distance, income and man-land ratio are important factors to explain population floating at earlier stage.
However, as the dynamic population floating process evolves, the determinant factor would be migration stock.
- floating population /
- origin distribution visualization /
- spatial regression model /
- Yiwu City /
- GIS
Abstract: Existing quantitative migration studies are mainly at the inter-region or inter-province level for lacking of detailed geo-
referenced migration data. Meanwhile, few of them integrate explorative spatial data analysis and spatial regression model into migration
analysis. Based on aggregated registered floating population data from 2005 to 2008, the phenomena that population floating to Yiwu
City in Zhejiang Province is analyzed at the provincial and county levels. The spatial layout of Yiwu′s pull forces is proved as a V-shaped
pattern excluding Sichuan Province based on map visualization method. Using the migration ratio in 2007 as an explanatory variable, two
models are compared using ordinary least square, spatial error model and spatial lag model methods for county-level data in Jiangxi and
Anhui provinces. The model with migration stock provides an improved fitting over the model without migration stock according to the
model fitting results. The floating population flocking into Yiwu City from Jiangxi is determined mostly by migration stock while the
determinant factors are migration stock and distance to Yiwu City for Anhui. The distance-decay effect is true for migration flow from
Anhui to Yiwu City while the distance rule is not confirmed in Jiangxi with the best fitting model. The correlation between per capita net
income of rural labor forces and migration ratio is not significant in Jiangxi and significant but at the 0.1 level only in Anhui. Further
analysis shows that the distance, income and man-land ratio are important factors to explain population floating at earlier stage.
However, as the dynamic population floating process evolves, the determinant factor would be migration stock.
- floating population /
- origin distribution visualization /
- spatial regression model /
- Yiwu City /
- GIS

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Origin Distribution Patterns and Floating Population Modeling: Yiwu City as a Destination

( State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural ResourcesResearch, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

刊出日期: 2012-04-30

关键词:

floating population /

origin distribution visualization /

spatial regression model /

Yiwu City /

GIS

摘要: Existing quantitative migration studies are mainly at the inter-region or inter-province level for lacking of detailed geo-
referenced migration data. Meanwhile, few of them integrate explorative spatial data analysis and spatial regression model into migration
analysis. Based on aggregated registered floating population data from 2005 to 2008, the phenomena that population floating to Yiwu
City in Zhejiang Province is analyzed at the provincial and county levels. The spatial layout of Yiwu′s pull forces is proved as a V-shaped
pattern excluding Sichuan Province based on map visualization method. Using the migration ratio in 2007 as an explanatory variable, two
models are compared using ordinary least square, spatial error model and spatial lag model methods for county-level data in Jiangxi and
Anhui provinces. The model with migration stock provides an improved fitting over the model without migration stock according to the
model fitting results. The floating population flocking into Yiwu City from Jiangxi is determined mostly by migration stock while the
determinant factors are migration stock and distance to Yiwu City for Anhui. The distance-decay effect is true for migration flow from
Anhui to Yiwu City while the distance rule is not confirmed in Jiangxi with the best fitting model. The correlation between per capita net
income of rural labor forces and migration ratio is not significant in Jiangxi and significant but at the 0.1 level only in Anhui. Further
analysis shows that the distance, income and man-land ratio are important factors to explain population floating at earlier stage.
However, as the dynamic population floating process evolves, the determinant factor would be migration stock.

English Abstract

( State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural ResourcesResearch, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

Publish Date: 2012-04-30

Keywords:

Abstract: Existing quantitative migration studies are mainly at the inter-region or inter-province level for lacking of detailed geo-
referenced migration data. Meanwhile, few of them integrate explorative spatial data analysis and spatial regression model into migration
analysis. Based on aggregated registered floating population data from 2005 to 2008, the phenomena that population floating to Yiwu
City in Zhejiang Province is analyzed at the provincial and county levels. The spatial layout of Yiwu′s pull forces is proved as a V-shaped
pattern excluding Sichuan Province based on map visualization method. Using the migration ratio in 2007 as an explanatory variable, two
models are compared using ordinary least square, spatial error model and spatial lag model methods for county-level data in Jiangxi and
Anhui provinces. The model with migration stock provides an improved fitting over the model without migration stock according to the
model fitting results. The floating population flocking into Yiwu City from Jiangxi is determined mostly by migration stock while the
determinant factors are migration stock and distance to Yiwu City for Anhui. The distance-decay effect is true for migration flow from
Anhui to Yiwu City while the distance rule is not confirmed in Jiangxi with the best fitting model. The correlation between per capita net
income of rural labor forces and migration ratio is not significant in Jiangxi and significant but at the 0.1 level only in Anhui. Further
analysis shows that the distance, income and man-land ratio are important factors to explain population floating at earlier stage.
However, as the dynamic population floating process evolves, the determinant factor would be migration stock.

LI Hongsheng, WANG Yingjie, HAN Jiafu. Origin Distribution Patterns and Floating Population Modeling: Yiwu City as a Destination[J]. 中国地理科学, 2012, 22(3): 367-380.

引用本文:

LI Hongsheng, WANG Yingjie, HAN Jiafu. Origin Distribution Patterns and Floating Population Modeling: Yiwu City as a Destination[J]. 中国地理科学, 2012, 22(3): 367-380.

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Origin Distribution Patterns and Floating Population Modeling: Yiwu City as a Destination

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Origin Distribution Patterns and Floating Population Modeling: Yiwu City as a Destination

( State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural ResourcesResearch, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

English Abstract

( State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural ResourcesResearch, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

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