THE APPLICATION OF FRACTAL STUDY IN FORECASTING FLOOD CALAMITIES IN WUZHOU, GUANGXI

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THE APPLICATION OF FRACTAL STUDY IN FORECASTING FLOOD CALAMITIES IN WUZHOU, GUANGXI

常疆, 王良健

文章导航 > Chinese Geographical Science > 1999 > 9(2): 184-188

常疆, 王良健. THE APPLICATION OF FRACTAL STUDY IN FORECASTING FLOOD CALAMITIES IN WUZHOU, GUANGXI[J]. 中国地理科学, 1999, 9(2): 184-188.

引用本文:

常疆, 王良健. THE APPLICATION OF FRACTAL STUDY IN FORECASTING FLOOD CALAMITIES IN WUZHOU, GUANGXI[J]. 中国地理科学, 1999, 9(2): 184-188.

Chang Jiang, Wang Liangjian. THE APPLICATION OF FRACTAL STUDY IN FORECASTING FLOOD CALAMITIES IN WUZHOU, GUANGXI[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 1999, 9(2): 184-188.

Citation:

Chang Jiang, Wang Liangjian. THE APPLICATION OF FRACTAL STUDY IN FORECASTING FLOOD CALAMITIES IN WUZHOU, GUANGXI[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 1999, 9(2): 184-188.

THE APPLICATION OF FRACTAL STUDY IN FORECASTING FLOOD CALAMITIES IN WUZHOU, GUANGXI

常疆¹,
王良健²

1.
College of Land and Resources, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, P. R. China;
2.
Institute of Economy, Hunan Financial and Economic College, Changsha 410079, P. R. China

THE APPLICATION OF FRACTAL STUDY IN FORECASTING FLOOD CALAMITIES IN WUZHOU, GUANGXI

Chang Jiang¹,
Wang Liangjian²

1.
College of Land and Resources, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, P. R. China;
2.
Institute of Economy, Hunan Financial and Economic College, Changsha 410079, P. R. China

摘要: As a kind of sudden and common natural disast er, flood is characterize d by the temporal fraction. A date series of floods was established according to the catastrophic records in Wuzhou, Zhuang Autonomous Region of Gaungxi, P. R. China since 1949.By the means of the model of fractional brownian motion, we can imitate the temporal sequence of past and forecast the developing trend in future, on the basis of which, the R/S analysis was employed to cal cul ate the temporal sequence, the 'H' exponent and function R(τ)/S(τ) were d etermi ned. It is anticipated that the next catastrophic flood in Wuzhou will happen in 1999.
- fractal theory /
- fractional brownian motion model /
- ‘H’exponent /
- flood calamity
Abstract: As a kind of sudden and common natural disast er, flood is characterize d by the temporal fraction. A date series of floods was established according to the catastrophic records in Wuzhou, Zhuang Autonomous Region of Gaungxi, P. R. China since 1949.By the means of the model of fractional brownian motion, we can imitate the temporal sequence of past and forecast the developing trend in future, on the basis of which, the R/S analysis was employed to cal cul ate the temporal sequence, the 'H' exponent and function R(τ)/S(τ) were d etermi ned. It is anticipated that the next catastrophic flood in Wuzhou will happen in 1999.
- fractal theory /
- fractional brownian motion model /
- ‘H’exponent /
- flood calamity

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THE APPLICATION OF FRACTAL STUDY IN FORECASTING FLOOD CALAMITIES IN WUZHOU, GUANGXI

常疆¹,
王良健²

1. College of Land and Resources, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, P. R. China;

2. Institute of Economy, Hunan Financial and Economic College, Changsha 410079, P. R. China

收稿日期: 1999-01-19
刊出日期: 1999-06-20

关键词:

fractal theory /

fractional brownian motion model /

‘H’exponent /

摘要: As a kind of sudden and common natural disast er, flood is characterize d by the temporal fraction. A date series of floods was established according to the catastrophic records in Wuzhou, Zhuang Autonomous Region of Gaungxi, P. R. China since 1949.By the means of the model of fractional brownian motion, we can imitate the temporal sequence of past and forecast the developing trend in future, on the basis of which, the R/S analysis was employed to cal cul ate the temporal sequence, the 'H' exponent and function R(τ)/S(τ) were d etermi ned. It is anticipated that the next catastrophic flood in Wuzhou will happen in 1999.

English Abstract

常疆, 王良健. THE APPLICATION OF FRACTAL STUDY IN FORECASTING FLOOD CALAMITIES IN WUZHOU, GUANGXI[J]. 中国地理科学, 1999, 9(2): 184-188.

引用本文:

常疆, 王良健. THE APPLICATION OF FRACTAL STUDY IN FORECASTING FLOOD CALAMITIES IN WUZHOU, GUANGXI[J]. 中国地理科学, 1999, 9(2): 184-188.

Chang Jiang, Wang Liangjian. THE APPLICATION OF FRACTAL STUDY IN FORECASTING FLOOD CALAMITIES IN WUZHOU, GUANGXI[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 1999, 9(2): 184-188.

Citation:

Chang Jiang, Wang Liangjian. THE APPLICATION OF FRACTAL STUDY IN FORECASTING FLOOD CALAMITIES IN WUZHOU, GUANGXI[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 1999, 9(2): 184-188.

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