STUDY ON TREND PREDICTION AND VARIATION ON THE FLOW INTO THE LONGYANGXIA RESERVOIR

LAN Yong-chao; KANG Er-si; MA Quan-jie; ZHANG Ji-shi

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STUDY ON TREND PREDICTION AND VARIATION ON THE FLOW INTO THE LONGYANGXIA RESERVOIR

LAN Yong-chao, KANG Er-si, MA Quan-jie, ZHANG Ji-shi

文章导航 > Chinese Geographical Science > 2001 > 11(1): 35-41

LAN Yong-chao, KANG Er-si, MA Quan-jie, ZHANG Ji-shi. STUDY ON TREND PREDICTION AND VARIATION ON THE FLOW INTO THE LONGYANGXIA RESERVOIR[J]. 中国地理科学, 2001, 11(1): 35-41.

引用本文:

LAN Yong-chao, KANG Er-si, MA Quan-jie, ZHANG Ji-shi. STUDY ON TREND PREDICTION AND VARIATION ON THE FLOW INTO THE LONGYANGXIA RESERVOIR[J]. 中国地理科学, 2001, 11(1): 35-41.

LAN Yong-chao, KANG Er-si, MA Quan-jie, ZHANG Ji-shi. STUDY ON TREND PREDICTION AND VARIATION ON THE FLOW INTO THE LONGYANGXIA RESERVOIR[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 2001, 11(1): 35-41.

Citation:

LAN Yong-chao, KANG Er-si, MA Quan-jie, ZHANG Ji-shi. STUDY ON TREND PREDICTION AND VARIATION ON THE FLOW INTO THE LONGYANGXIA RESERVOIR[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 2001, 11(1): 35-41.

STUDY ON TREND PREDICTION AND VARIATION ON THE FLOW INTO THE LONGYANGXIA RESERVOIR

1.
Cold and Arid Regions Environment and Engineering Research Institute, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, P. R. China;
2.
Lanzhou Administrative Office of Hydrology and Water Resources of the Upper Reaches of the Huanghe River, 730030, P. R. China

基金项目: Ninth-Five-Year"Key Project of the State Science and Technology Commission (96-912-01-02-05) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (49731030).

详细信息

作者简介:
LAN Yong-chao(1957- ), mail, a native of Lanzhou City, associate professor.His research interests include water resources and hydrology in northwest region of China.

中图分类号: P343

STUDY ON TREND PREDICTION AND VARIATION ON THE FLOW INTO THE LONGYANGXIA RESERVOIR

1.
Cold and Arid Regions Environment and Engineering Research Institute, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, P. R. China;
2.
Lanzhou Administrative Office of Hydrology and Water Resources of the Upper Reaches of the Huanghe River, 730030, P. R. China

摘要: The Longyangxia Gorge Key Water Control System is the first of the stairstep power sations along the Longyangxia-Qingtongxia river section. It has been playing an very important role in providing power, protecting flood and ice run supplying and irrigation etc. in the northwestem China. Therefore, the study on trend prediction, variation on the now into the Longyangxia Reservoir are of the great social and economic benefits. In the medium-and-long-range runoff forecast, all kinds of regression equation are often used for predicting future hydrologic regime. However, these regression models aren't appropriate to super long-range runoff forecast because of the restricting on weather data and so on. So a new super long-range runoff forecast model don't depend on Real-time weather data and called" Period correcting for residual error series GM(1,1) model" is presented based on analyzing for the relational hydrologic data and the variation on the now into the Longyangxia Reservoir, and the fore-cast model was applied successfully to predict the recent and super long-term trends of the flow into the Longyangxia Reservoir. The results indicate that the annual now into the Longyangxia Reservoir is in the ending minimum period of the runoff history. The runoff increasing is expected in for the coming years.
- flow variation /
- trend prediction /
- residual error series /
- Longyangxia Reservoir
Abstract: The Longyangxia Gorge Key Water Control System is the first of the stairstep power sations along the Longyangxia-Qingtongxia river section. It has been playing an very important role in providing power, protecting flood and ice run supplying and irrigation etc. in the northwestem China. Therefore, the study on trend prediction, variation on the now into the Longyangxia Reservoir are of the great social and economic benefits. In the medium-and-long-range runoff forecast, all kinds of regression equation are often used for predicting future hydrologic regime. However, these regression models aren't appropriate to super long-range runoff forecast because of the restricting on weather data and so on. So a new super long-range runoff forecast model don't depend on Real-time weather data and called" Period correcting for residual error series GM(1,1) model" is presented based on analyzing for the relational hydrologic data and the variation on the now into the Longyangxia Reservoir, and the fore-cast model was applied successfully to predict the recent and super long-term trends of the flow into the Longyangxia Reservoir. The results indicate that the annual now into the Longyangxia Reservoir is in the ending minimum period of the runoff history. The runoff increasing is expected in for the coming years.
- flow variation /
- trend prediction /
- residual error series /
- Longyangxia Reservoir

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STUDY ON TREND PREDICTION AND VARIATION ON THE FLOW INTO THE LONGYANGXIA RESERVOIR

1. Cold and Arid Regions Environment and Engineering Research Institute, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, P. R. China;

2. Lanzhou Administrative Office of Hydrology and Water Resources of the Upper Reaches of the Huanghe River, 730030, P. R. China

基金项目: Ninth-Five-Year"Key Project of the State Science and Technology Commission (96-912-01-02-05) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (49731030).

作者简介:
LAN Yong-chao(1957- ), mail, a native of Lanzhou City, associate professor.His research interests include water resources and hydrology in northwest region of China.

收稿日期: 2000-05-18
刊出日期: 2001-03-20

中图分类号: P343

关键词:

flow variation /

trend prediction /

residual error series /

Longyangxia Reservoir

摘要: The Longyangxia Gorge Key Water Control System is the first of the stairstep power sations along the Longyangxia-Qingtongxia river section. It has been playing an very important role in providing power, protecting flood and ice run supplying and irrigation etc. in the northwestem China. Therefore, the study on trend prediction, variation on the now into the Longyangxia Reservoir are of the great social and economic benefits. In the medium-and-long-range runoff forecast, all kinds of regression equation are often used for predicting future hydrologic regime. However, these regression models aren't appropriate to super long-range runoff forecast because of the restricting on weather data and so on. So a new super long-range runoff forecast model don't depend on Real-time weather data and called" Period correcting for residual error series GM(1,1) model" is presented based on analyzing for the relational hydrologic data and the variation on the now into the Longyangxia Reservoir, and the fore-cast model was applied successfully to predict the recent and super long-term trends of the flow into the Longyangxia Reservoir. The results indicate that the annual now into the Longyangxia Reservoir is in the ending minimum period of the runoff history. The runoff increasing is expected in for the coming years.

English Abstract

STUDY ON TREND PREDICTION AND VARIATION ON THE FLOW INTO THE LONGYANGXIA RESERVOIR

1. Cold and Arid Regions Environment and Engineering Research Institute, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, P. R. China;

2. Lanzhou Administrative Office of Hydrology and Water Resources of the Upper Reaches of the Huanghe River, 730030, P. R. China

Received Date: 2000-05-18
Publish Date: 2001-03-20

Keywords:

Abstract: The Longyangxia Gorge Key Water Control System is the first of the stairstep power sations along the Longyangxia-Qingtongxia river section. It has been playing an very important role in providing power, protecting flood and ice run supplying and irrigation etc. in the northwestem China. Therefore, the study on trend prediction, variation on the now into the Longyangxia Reservoir are of the great social and economic benefits. In the medium-and-long-range runoff forecast, all kinds of regression equation are often used for predicting future hydrologic regime. However, these regression models aren't appropriate to super long-range runoff forecast because of the restricting on weather data and so on. So a new super long-range runoff forecast model don't depend on Real-time weather data and called" Period correcting for residual error series GM(1,1) model" is presented based on analyzing for the relational hydrologic data and the variation on the now into the Longyangxia Reservoir, and the fore-cast model was applied successfully to predict the recent and super long-term trends of the flow into the Longyangxia Reservoir. The results indicate that the annual now into the Longyangxia Reservoir is in the ending minimum period of the runoff history. The runoff increasing is expected in for the coming years.

LAN Yong-chao, KANG Er-si, MA Quan-jie, ZHANG Ji-shi. STUDY ON TREND PREDICTION AND VARIATION ON THE FLOW INTO THE LONGYANGXIA RESERVOIR[J]. 中国地理科学, 2001, 11(1): 35-41.

引用本文:

LAN Yong-chao, KANG Er-si, MA Quan-jie, ZHANG Ji-shi. STUDY ON TREND PREDICTION AND VARIATION ON THE FLOW INTO THE LONGYANGXIA RESERVOIR[J]. 中国地理科学, 2001, 11(1): 35-41.

LAN Yong-chao, KANG Er-si, MA Quan-jie, ZHANG Ji-shi. STUDY ON TREND PREDICTION AND VARIATION ON THE FLOW INTO THE LONGYANGXIA RESERVOIR[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 2001, 11(1): 35-41.

Citation:

LAN Yong-chao, KANG Er-si, MA Quan-jie, ZHANG Ji-shi. STUDY ON TREND PREDICTION AND VARIATION ON THE FLOW INTO THE LONGYANGXIA RESERVOIR[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 2001, 11(1): 35-41.

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STUDY ON TREND PREDICTION AND VARIATION ON THE FLOW INTO THE LONGYANGXIA RESERVOIR

作者简介: LAN Yong-chao(1957- ), mail, a native of Lanzhou City, associate professor.His research interests include water resources and hydrology in northwest region of China.

STUDY ON TREND PREDICTION AND VARIATION ON THE FLOW INTO THE LONGYANGXIA RESERVOIR

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出版历程

STUDY ON TREND PREDICTION AND VARIATION ON THE FLOW INTO THE LONGYANGXIA RESERVOIR

1. Cold and Arid Regions Environment and Engineering Research Institute, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, P. R. China; 2. Lanzhou Administrative Office of Hydrology and Water Resources of the Upper Reaches of the Huanghe River, 730030, P. R. China

作者简介: LAN Yong-chao(1957- ), mail, a native of Lanzhou City, associate professor.His research interests include water resources and hydrology in northwest region of China.

English Abstract

STUDY ON TREND PREDICTION AND VARIATION ON THE FLOW INTO THE LONGYANGXIA RESERVOIR

1. Cold and Arid Regions Environment and Engineering Research Institute, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, P. R. China; 2. Lanzhou Administrative Office of Hydrology and Water Resources of the Upper Reaches of the Huanghe River, 730030, P. R. China

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目录

作者简介:
LAN Yong-chao(1957- ), mail, a native of Lanzhou City, associate professor.His research interests include water resources and hydrology in northwest region of China.

1. Cold and Arid Regions Environment and Engineering Research Institute, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, P. R. China;

2. Lanzhou Administrative Office of Hydrology and Water Resources of the Upper Reaches of the Huanghe River, 730030, P. R. China

作者简介:
LAN Yong-chao(1957- ), mail, a native of Lanzhou City, associate professor.His research interests include water resources and hydrology in northwest region of China.

1. Cold and Arid Regions Environment and Engineering Research Institute, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, P. R. China;

2. Lanzhou Administrative Office of Hydrology and Water Resources of the Upper Reaches of the Huanghe River, 730030, P. R. China