Forecast of Flood in Chaohu Lake Basin of China Based on Grey-Markov Theory

LI Xiang; WANG Xinyuan; SHAO Wei; XIA Linyi; ZHANG Guangsheng; TIAN Bing; LI Wenda; PENG Peng

doi:10.1007/s11769-007-0064-3

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Forecast of Flood in Chaohu Lake Basin of China Based on Grey-Markov Theory

LI Xiang, WANG Xinyuan, SHAO Wei, XIA Linyi, ZHANG Guangsheng, TIAN Bing, LI Wenda, PENG Peng

文章导航 > Chinese Geographical Science > 2007 > 17(1): 64-68

LI Xiang, WANG Xinyuan, SHAO Wei, XIA Linyi, ZHANG Guangsheng, TIAN Bing, LI Wenda, PENG Peng. Forecast of Flood in Chaohu Lake Basin of China Based on Grey-Markov Theory[J]. 中国地理科学, 2007, 17(1): 64-68. doi: 10.1007/s11769-007-0064-3

引用本文:

LI Xiang, WANG Xinyuan, SHAO Wei, XIA Linyi, ZHANG Guangsheng, TIAN Bing, LI Wenda, PENG Peng. Forecast of Flood in Chaohu Lake Basin of China Based on Grey-Markov Theory[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 2007, 17(1): 64-68. doi: 10.1007/s11769-007-0064-3

Citation:

LI Xiang, WANG Xinyuan, SHAO Wei, XIA Linyi, ZHANG Guangsheng, TIAN Bing, LI Wenda, PENG Peng. Forecast of Flood in Chaohu Lake Basin of China Based on Grey-Markov Theory[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 2007, 17(1): 64-68. doi: 10.1007/s11769-007-0064-3

Forecast of Flood in Chaohu Lake Basin of China Based on Grey-Markov Theory

doi: 10.1007/s11769-007-0064-3

1.
National Resources and Tourism College, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241000, China;
2.
Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China;
3.
Institute of Hydroelectricity of Lu'an, Lu'an 237000, China

基金项目: Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.40571162);the Natural Science Foun-dation of Anhui Province (No.050450401)

详细信息

通讯作者:
LI Xiang.E-mail:luckylx168998@sina.com

Forecast of Flood in Chaohu Lake Basin of China Based on Grey-Markov Theory

1.
National Resources and Tourism College, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241000, China;
2.
Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China;
3.
Institute of Hydroelectricity of Lu'an, Lu'an 237000, China

摘要: Flood is one kind of unexpected and the most common natural disasters, which is affected by many factors and has complex mechanism. At home and abroad, there is still no mature theory and method used for the long-term forecast of natural precipitation at present. In the present paper the disadvantages of grey GM (1, 1) and Markov chain are ana-lyzed, and Grey-Markov forecast theory about flood is put forward and then the modifying model is developed by making prediction of Chaohu Lake basin. Hydrological law was conducted based on the theoretical forecasts by grey system GM (1, 1) forecast model with improved Markov chain. The above method contained Stat-analysis, embodying scientific approach, precise forecast and its reliable results.
- Grey-Markov theory /
- GM (1, 1) /
- Markov chain /
- flood forecast /
- Chaohu Lake basin
Abstract: Flood is one kind of unexpected and the most common natural disasters, which is affected by many factors and has complex mechanism. At home and abroad, there is still no mature theory and method used for the long-term forecast of natural precipitation at present. In the present paper the disadvantages of grey GM (1, 1) and Markov chain are ana-lyzed, and Grey-Markov forecast theory about flood is put forward and then the modifying model is developed by making prediction of Chaohu Lake basin. Hydrological law was conducted based on the theoretical forecasts by grey system GM (1, 1) forecast model with improved Markov chain. The above method contained Stat-analysis, embodying scientific approach, precise forecast and its reliable results.
- Grey-Markov theory /
- GM (1, 1) /
- Markov chain /
- flood forecast /
- Chaohu Lake basin

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Forecast of Flood in Chaohu Lake Basin of China Based on Grey-Markov Theory

doi: 10.1007/s11769-007-0064-3

1. National Resources and Tourism College, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241000, China;

2. Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China;

3. Institute of Hydroelectricity of Lu'an, Lu'an 237000, China

基金项目: Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.40571162);the Natural Science Foun-dation of Anhui Province (No.050450401)

通讯作者: LI Xiang.E-mail:luckylx168998@sina.com

收稿日期: 2006-03-20
修回日期: 2006-11-05
刊出日期: 2007-03-20

关键词:

GM (1, 1) /

摘要: Flood is one kind of unexpected and the most common natural disasters, which is affected by many factors and has complex mechanism. At home and abroad, there is still no mature theory and method used for the long-term forecast of natural precipitation at present. In the present paper the disadvantages of grey GM (1, 1) and Markov chain are ana-lyzed, and Grey-Markov forecast theory about flood is put forward and then the modifying model is developed by making prediction of Chaohu Lake basin. Hydrological law was conducted based on the theoretical forecasts by grey system GM (1, 1) forecast model with improved Markov chain. The above method contained Stat-analysis, embodying scientific approach, precise forecast and its reliable results.

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Forecast of Flood in Chaohu Lake Basin of China Based on Grey-Markov Theory

doi: 10.1007/s11769-007-0064-3

通讯作者: LI Xiang.E-mail:luckylx168998@sina.com

Forecast of Flood in Chaohu Lake Basin of China Based on Grey-Markov Theory

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Forecast of Flood in Chaohu Lake Basin of China Based on Grey-Markov Theory

doi: 10.1007/s11769-007-0064-3

1. National Resources and Tourism College, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241000, China; 2. Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China; 3. Institute of Hydroelectricity of Lu'an, Lu'an 237000, China

通讯作者: LI Xiang.E-mail:luckylx168998@sina.com

English Abstract

Forecast of Flood in Chaohu Lake Basin of China Based on Grey-Markov Theory

1. National Resources and Tourism College, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241000, China; 2. Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China; 3. Institute of Hydroelectricity of Lu'an, Lu'an 237000, China

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目录

通讯作者:
LI Xiang.E-mail:luckylx168998@sina.com

1. National Resources and Tourism College, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241000, China;

2. Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China;

3. Institute of Hydroelectricity of Lu'an, Lu'an 237000, China

1. National Resources and Tourism College, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241000, China;

2. Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, China;

3. Institute of Hydroelectricity of Lu'an, Lu'an 237000, China