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Long-term Trend and Fractal of Annual Runoff Process in Mainstream of Tarim River

XU Jianhua CHEN Yaning LI Weihong DONG Shan

XU Jianhua, CHEN Yaning, LI Weihong, DONG Shan. Long-term Trend and Fractal of Annual Runoff Process in Mainstream of Tarim River[J]. 中国地理科学, 2008, 18(1): 77-84. doi: 10.1007/s11769-008-0077-6
引用本文: XU Jianhua, CHEN Yaning, LI Weihong, DONG Shan. Long-term Trend and Fractal of Annual Runoff Process in Mainstream of Tarim River[J]. 中国地理科学, 2008, 18(1): 77-84. doi: 10.1007/s11769-008-0077-6
XU Jianhua, CHEN Yaning, LI Weihong, DONG Shan. Long-term Trend and Fractal of Annual Runoff Process in Mainstream of Tarim River[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 2008, 18(1): 77-84. doi: 10.1007/s11769-008-0077-6
Citation: XU Jianhua, CHEN Yaning, LI Weihong, DONG Shan. Long-term Trend and Fractal of Annual Runoff Process in Mainstream of Tarim River[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 2008, 18(1): 77-84. doi: 10.1007/s11769-008-0077-6

Long-term Trend and Fractal of Annual Runoff Process in Mainstream of Tarim River

doi: 10.1007/s11769-008-0077-6
基金项目: Under the auspices of the Second-stage Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-XB2-03);Major Direction of Knowledge Innovation Progromt of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-YW-127);Shanghai Academic Discipline Project (Human Geography) (No. B410)
详细信息
    通讯作者:

    XU Jianhua. E-mail: jhxu@geo.ecnu.edu.cn

Long-term Trend and Fractal of Annual Runoff Process in Mainstream of Tarim River

Funds: Under the auspices of the Second-stage Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-XB2-03);Major Direction of Knowledge Innovation Progromt of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-YW-127);Shanghai Academic Discipline Project (Human Geography) (No. B410)
  • 摘要: Based on the time series data from the Aral hydrological station for the period of 1958-2005,the paper re-veals the long-term trend and fractal of the annual runoff process in the mainstream of the Tarim River by using the wavelet analysis method and the fractal theory.The main conclusions are as follows:1)From a large time scale point of view,i.e.the time scale of 16(24)years,the annual runoff basically shows a slightly decreasing trend as a whole from 1958 to 2005.If the time scale is reduced to 8(23)or 4(22)years,the annual runoff still displays the basic trend as the large time scale,but it has fluctuated more obviously during the period.2)The correlation dimension for the annual runoff process is 3.4307,non-integral,which indicates that the process has both fractal and chaotic characteris-tics.The correlation dimension is above 3,which means that at least four independent variables are needed to describe the dynamics of the annual runoff process.3)The Hurst exponent for the first period(1958-1973)is 0.5036,which equals 0.5 approximately and indicates that the annual runoff process is in chaos.The Hurst exponents for the second(1974-1989)and third(1990-2005)periods are both greater than 0.50,which indicate that the annual runoff process showed a long-enduring characteristic in the two periods.The Hurst exponent for the period from 1990 to 2005 indicates that the annual runoff will show a slightly increasing trend in the 16 years after 2005.
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    [2] Chen Yaning,Li Weihong,Chen Yapeng et al.,2003.Water resources and ecological problems in Tarim River Basin,Xinjiang,China.In:Wilderer P A et al.(eds.).Water and Environmental Management.London:IWA Publishing,3-12.

    [3] Chen Yaning,Takeuchi Kuniyoshi,Xu Changchun et al.,2006.Regional climate change and its effects on river runoff in the Tarim Basin,China.Hydrological Processes,20:2207-2216.DOI:10.1002/hyp.6200

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    [5] Chen Yaning,Zhang Xiaolei,Li Weihong et al.,2004.Analysis on the ecological benefits of the stream water conveyance to the dried-up river of the lower reaches of the Tarim River,China.Science in China (Series D),47(11):1053-1064.DOI:10.1360/03yd0101

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    [11] Jiang Yan,Zhou Chenghu,Cheng Weiming,2007.Streamflow trends and hydrological response to climatic change in Tarim headwater basin.Journal of Geographical Sciences,17(1):51-61.DOI:10.1007/s11442-007-0051-8

    [12] Li Xin,Yang Degang,2001.Benefit and ecological loss of water utilization in Tarim River.Arid Land Geography,24(4):327-331.(in Chinese)

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  • 收稿日期:  2007-07-15
  • 修回日期:  2007-12-02
  • 刊出日期:  2008-03-20

Long-term Trend and Fractal of Annual Runoff Process in Mainstream of Tarim River

doi: 10.1007/s11769-008-0077-6
    基金项目:  Under the auspices of the Second-stage Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-XB2-03);Major Direction of Knowledge Innovation Progromt of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-YW-127);Shanghai Academic Discipline Project (Human Geography) (No. B410)
    通讯作者: XU Jianhua. E-mail: jhxu@geo.ecnu.edu.cn

摘要: Based on the time series data from the Aral hydrological station for the period of 1958-2005,the paper re-veals the long-term trend and fractal of the annual runoff process in the mainstream of the Tarim River by using the wavelet analysis method and the fractal theory.The main conclusions are as follows:1)From a large time scale point of view,i.e.the time scale of 16(24)years,the annual runoff basically shows a slightly decreasing trend as a whole from 1958 to 2005.If the time scale is reduced to 8(23)or 4(22)years,the annual runoff still displays the basic trend as the large time scale,but it has fluctuated more obviously during the period.2)The correlation dimension for the annual runoff process is 3.4307,non-integral,which indicates that the process has both fractal and chaotic characteris-tics.The correlation dimension is above 3,which means that at least four independent variables are needed to describe the dynamics of the annual runoff process.3)The Hurst exponent for the first period(1958-1973)is 0.5036,which equals 0.5 approximately and indicates that the annual runoff process is in chaos.The Hurst exponents for the second(1974-1989)and third(1990-2005)periods are both greater than 0.50,which indicate that the annual runoff process showed a long-enduring characteristic in the two periods.The Hurst exponent for the period from 1990 to 2005 indicates that the annual runoff will show a slightly increasing trend in the 16 years after 2005.

English Abstract

XU Jianhua, CHEN Yaning, LI Weihong, DONG Shan. Long-term Trend and Fractal of Annual Runoff Process in Mainstream of Tarim River[J]. 中国地理科学, 2008, 18(1): 77-84. doi: 10.1007/s11769-008-0077-6
引用本文: XU Jianhua, CHEN Yaning, LI Weihong, DONG Shan. Long-term Trend and Fractal of Annual Runoff Process in Mainstream of Tarim River[J]. 中国地理科学, 2008, 18(1): 77-84. doi: 10.1007/s11769-008-0077-6
XU Jianhua, CHEN Yaning, LI Weihong, DONG Shan. Long-term Trend and Fractal of Annual Runoff Process in Mainstream of Tarim River[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 2008, 18(1): 77-84. doi: 10.1007/s11769-008-0077-6
Citation: XU Jianhua, CHEN Yaning, LI Weihong, DONG Shan. Long-term Trend and Fractal of Annual Runoff Process in Mainstream of Tarim River[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 2008, 18(1): 77-84. doi: 10.1007/s11769-008-0077-6
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